What Guinea-Bissau military takeover means for Nigeria

The military takeover in Guinea-Bissau last week has sparked renewed debate among political observers in Nigeria and Africa in general, with analysts warning that recurring coups in West Africa could heighten political tensions and public frustration in the region’s largest democracy.

The development makes Guinea-Bissau the latest West African nation to experience a forceful change of power, following similar incidents in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon in recent years.

Regional experts say the trend reflects growing dissatisfaction with governance, corruption, unemployment, and weakened state institutions across the continent.

Hameed Muritala, a development practitioner and media consultant, said the coup in Guinea-Bissau was sad but was another reminder of the troubling socio-economic problems bedevilling many countries in the region, which governments have failed to tackle.

Read also: Guinea Bissau military officers seize power, take over capital

According to him, when citizens lose confidence in the political process, the military often exploits the vacuum.

Coup a stark warning of consequences of weak governance

For Nigeria, where the majority of the citizens are disenchanted and distressed by endemic bad governance, corruption, lack of accountability, and inefficiency, perhaps the coup is a stark warning of what weak and insensitive governance can lead to: breakdown of democracy, disregard for electoral mandates, and military intervention.

Observers say the coup in Guinea-Bissau resonates deeply within Nigeria. It reinforces fears that when institutions are weak and governance is poor, political instability and violence become more likely.

It is expected that the coup would intensify scrutiny of domestic governance challenges, government policies, including economic hardship, rising insecurity, and declining public trust in government.

Speaking on the issue, Kingsley Nwanze, director general/CEO, Centre for Leadership and Creative Entrepreneurs in Africa, said for Nigeria, the instability occasioned by the coup in Guinea-Bissau translates to a dangerous rise in domestic security risks, fueling arms proliferation and humanitarian crises across porous borders.

“The ultimate threat is the greed-to-instability feedback loop: when Nigerian political office holders prioritize self-enrichment, they justify intervention by proving that democracy has been corrupted.

“This diminishes the public’s will to defend a system that has consistently failed them,” he told BusinessDay.

Even though Nigeria remains under democracy and civilian leadership, experts say the environment of discontent and socio-economic challenges shares similarities with conditions in countries where coups have occurred in the last few years.

Sunday Osagie, a public affairs analyst, told BusinessDay that the present-day leaders in the country should be worried about the state of the nation’s democracy because of their tendency to propagate ethnic politics, division, and undermine the electoral will of the citizens of Nigeria for their selfish interest.

According to him, what is happening across West Africa is a cause for anyone to worry about; we are sliding back to the dark days of military rule. But we invited them with bad governance and undermining of citizens’ will.

“The kind of politics these politicians play is what is bringing the military guys back. Look at what we are seeing here in Nigeria: policies and actions that seek to divide us instead of uniting us.

“Appointments that favour a particular ethnic group rather than the whole country.

“In a democracy, when you lack legitimacy because you rig yourself into office, you should wait for the consequences,” Osagie stressed.

Read also: Guinea Bissau’s ousted president Embalo flees to Senegal after coup

Also speaking, regional security analyst Michael Akande said the Guinea-Bissau incident underscores a dangerous pattern that Nigeria cannot ignore.

According to him, the repeated collapse of democratic governments in West Africa is a warning about what prolonged hardship and weak institutions can trigger.

Similarly, Muritala further noted that the coup in Guinea-Bissau offers a critical lesson for Nigeria’s political leaders, stressing that the country’s leaders must work to strengthen democratic institutions, address socio-economic challenges, and ensure that governance is transparent, inclusive, and works for the people.

“When leaders fail to build trust, deliver development, and ignore public dissatisfaction, instability becomes inevitable,” he stressed.

Nigeria must not stay silent – Yabagi

Since the setting up of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in the 70s, Nigeria has played a leading role in defending democracy across the region.

Observers expect Nigeria will respond strongly through ECOWAS, though the bloc’s influence has been tested following the withdrawal of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso from the organisation.

Sanni Yabagi, the national chairman of the Action Democratic Party (ADP), said Nigeria must continue to offer moral leadership, diplomatic engagement, and unwavering support for democracy across Africa, including in Guinea-Bissau.

“Democracy is the only sustainable pathway to peace, development, and continental renewal. People of Africa are yearning for accountable leadership, transparent governance, and peaceful transitions of power.

“It is therefore incumbent upon all political actors across the continent to respect democratic principles, refrain from actions capable of undermining stability, and ensure that the will of the people remains supreme.

“Nigeria, as a regional leader, must not stay silent,” Yabagi said.

However, experts say Nigeria may find it increasingly difficult to enforce constitutional order in a region where military takeovers are becoming more frequent.

Muritala argued that regional bodies like ECOWAS and the African Union have limited capacity to prevent or reverse these disruptions.

He stated that their responses are often reactive and constrained by political sensitivities among member states, noting that until there is a stronger collective commitment to good governance, respect for term limits, and genuine accountability, coups may continue.

Also, economists warn that instability in West Africa could disrupt trade routes, weaken investor confidence, and further pressure Nigeria’s already struggling economy.

Guinea-Bissau shares important regional maritime corridors that Nigerian businesses rely on for imports and exports.

Read also: Army general sworn in as Guinea Bissau transition leader, reopens borders

Incumbents don’t respect their terms of office

The refusal of incumbent governments to respect their terms of office has aided military takeovers in West Africa, says Sylvester Odion Akhaine, professor of political science from Lagos State University (LASU).

The professor argued that the situation has also been exacerbated by the high poverty rate in many countries in West Africa and Africa as a whole.

“The other point is that Guinea-Bissau suffers coup syndrome due to poverty and the fragility of its economy,” the professor told BusinessDay.