Food inflation surges 59% in low, middle-income countries – World Bank

Food inflation remained high in May as nominal and real inflation increased in 59 per cent of low-middle-income countries globally.

According to the World Bank May 2024 food security update for Nigeria, food inflation in low-middle-income countries increased in 59 percent of low-middle-income countries.

This shows a two percent rise on a month-on-month basis when compared to the value recorded in April 2024.

The report shows that Nigeria, a low-middle-income country, ranks eighth on the list of countries with the highest nominal and real food inflation in the period under review.

Real food inflation in Africa’s most populous nation increased 41 percent compared to last year, while its nominal food inflation increased by seven percent in the same period, the report says.

The report emphasised that on a monthly analysis, the agriculture and cereal price indices increased by one percent and six percent respectively, while export cost declined by four percent.

Food inflation increased in 63 percent of lower-middle-income countries, 31 percent of upper-middle-income countries, and 14.5 percent of high-income in the period under review.

The report noted that in real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 53 percent of the 166 countries reviewed by the World Bank.

On a month-on-month basis, prices of maize and wheat increased four per cent and 21 percent, respectively, while prices of rice declined by one per cent in the period under review.

On a year-on-year basis, the report said prices of maize declined 21 percent from the same month of 2023. However, prices of wheat and rice grew seven per cent and 20 percent, respectively.

The highest food inflation was recorded in Argentina with 293 percent surge in nominal food inflation and 163 percent in real food inflation on a year-on-year basis.

Malawi recorded the lowest surge in nominal food inflation at 40 percent, while Paraguay with a surge of only five percent recorded the lowest value in real food inflation.

The World Bank projects that global food prices will decline six percent in 2024 and four percent in 2025, noting that prices of maize and wheat will fall by 21 and 15 percent, respectively, owing “to an increase in global supply, although potential disruptions in grain shipments and shifts in input costs present notable upside risks to these forecasts.”