Explained: Why the US, Iran resumed fighting and what happens next

The fragile peace between the United States and Iran appears to be falling apart after Washington launched a fresh wave of military strikes on Iranian targets, prompting retaliation from Tehran and raising fears that the Middle East could slide back into full-scale conflict.

According to Al Jazeera, the US military struck more than 80 targets across southern Iran early Wednesday after accusing Tehran of attacking commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes. Hours later, Donald Trump, US President declared that the memorandum of understanding that had paused the war was effectively finished.

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“I think it’s over,” Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey. “I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over. It’s just a waste of time dealing with them.”

His remarks immediately rattled global markets. Brent crude climbed above $78 a barrel, European stocks fell and investors rushed into the dollar as concerns grew that renewed fighting could disrupt global energy supplies and fuel inflation.

The latest escalation is the most serious setback since Washington and Tehran agreed to halt hostilities in June. It also raises fresh questions about whether diplomacy can still prevent another regional war.

What happened?

The US Central Command said it carried out strikes on more than 80 Iranian military targets after three commercial tankers came under attack while passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The US said it targeted Iranian air defence systems, command centres, coastal radar installations, anti-ship missile sites and dozens of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats operating near the waterway.
Washington said the strikes were intended to prevent further attacks on international shipping.

Trump defended the operation, saying the United States had struck “very powerfully” and describing Iran’s leadership as “dangerous people.”
Iran rejected the accusations and accused Washington of violating the peace agreement.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it responded by launching missiles at US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. Tehran also accused the United States of breaking commitments contained in the memorandum of understanding signed only weeks ago.

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Why did it happen?

The immediate trigger was a series of attacks on commercial ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Al Jazeera, Iran had directed vessels to follow a new shipping route that passed closer to its coastline. Several ships reportedly ignored those instructions before coming under attack.

Washington viewed the attacks as a direct violation of the agreement that required Iran to allow safe passage through the strategic waterway during ongoing peace negotiations.

The United States responded with military force and simultaneously restored sanctions on Iranian oil exports, reversing temporary relief granted during the peace process.

Why does it matter?

The crisis extends far beyond the United States and Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of global oil supplies. Any disruption to shipping through the narrow waterway quickly affects energy prices worldwide.

The latest fighting has already pushed oil prices higher, increasing concerns over inflation and economic uncertainty at a time when many countries are still struggling with high borrowing costs and weak economic growth.

The crisis also threatens stability across the Gulf, where several countries host American military bases while maintaining important economic ties with Iran.

Any prolonged conflict could draw neighbouring states deeper into the confrontation.

Why did the US reimpose sanctions on Iran?

The United States has reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil exports after accusing Tehran of violating the memorandum of understanding that had temporarily eased tensions between the two countries.

According to Al Jazeera, the US Treasury announced late Tuesday that the sanctions, which had been partially lifted during the peace talks, are back in force. During the conflict,  Trump had temporarily waived sanctions on Iranian oil cargoes already at sea to help ease pressure on global energy markets following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

As part of the June 17 agreement, Washington granted Iran a 60-day waiver allowing it to continue selling crude oil while negotiations were underway. The waiver was originally due to expire on August 21.

However, the renewed sanctions took effect on July 7 for all new Iranian oil sales. The Treasury said cargoes shipped before that date will be allowed to proceed under a grace period, but payments from those sales will be held in blocked, interest-bearing accounts rather than being made directly available to Tehran.

The operation also increases the risk of becoming trapped in another prolonged regional conflict while peace talks remain unresolved.

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But renewed sanctions, possible further military action, and growing diplomatic isolation could deepen pressure on its economy.

The biggest losers could be ordinary citizens across the region, shipping companies, and countries that rely heavily on stable energy markets.

What happens next?

The future of the peace process is deeply uncertain.

Although Trump said he believes the agreement is effectively finished, he also suggested American negotiators could continue discussions with Tehran.
“I might let my wonderful negotiators keep talking,” he said, although he described further negotiations as “a waste of time.”

Iranian officials insist the latest US strikes have severely damaged the foundation of the agreement.

Abbas Araghchi, Iranian Foreign Minister said Washington had rendered “key, fundamental elements” of the deal ineffective.

Military analysts warn that both countries still have reasons to avoid another full-scale war, but the danger of miscalculation has risen sharply.

Frank Gardner, the BBC’s security correspondent, described the latest exchange as the worst since the June agreement but noted that “it does not, by itself, mean the tentative ceasefire has to end.”

What questions remain unanswered?

The extent of the damage caused by the US strikes and Iran’s retaliatory attacks has not been independently verified.

Perhaps most importantly, it remains uncertain whether regional powers can prevent further escalation before another incident pushes both sides into a wider conflict.

For now, the memorandum that paused one of the Middle East’s most dangerous wars appears to be hanging by a thread. The coming days will determine whether diplomacy can still survive or whether the region is heading back toward open war.