BusinessDay
Nigeria's leading finance and market intelligence news report.

The Week Ahead

FCT to end Covid-19 vaccinations on 14th May

The National Primary Health Care Development Agency announced that as of May 7, 2021, it had vaccinated 1,615,787 residents, which is 80.3% of its proportion. The FCT Primary Health Care Board (FPHCB) also went further to announce it would end the first round of Covid-19 vaccination on the 14th of May. This was disclosed by Mrs Salome Tor, Programme Officer, FPHCB in a meeting with newsmen on Friday.

She disclosed that the FCT received 248,400 doses of vaccine and has successfully vaccinated 96,559 as of May 6, 2021, thanks to a team of 169 health workers. “We have a minimum of three health workers in each team, they have all been distributed into the six Area Councils. All the government hospitals in the FCT are selected locations for this vaccination”, Salome stated.
The FPHCB added that Nigerians still need to get vaccinated and urged for the media’s participation in spreading awareness of the vaccination drive.

Mrs Salome stated that “We started this vaccination in FCT on March 15, the country at large started it on March 5, we have not seen anybody who complains of the vaccine in FCT, maybe blood clot or death.”

“We need at least seven out of 10 people to be vaccinated to be able to withstand the SARS 2 virus of COVID-19. I consider that as a deliberate hazard that will become hazardous to the community, so we advise that people shouldn’t put themselves in that position, they should go ahead and take the vaccine”, she added.

Oil market outlook for the week (Domestic & Foreign)

Domestic

On Tuesday, the House of Representatives urged the NNPC to review the status of the licenses issued to indigenous companies to run modular refineries. The House observed that out of the 38 licenses issued, only two are in the advanced stages of completion which defeat the purpose of the issuance.

As crude oil prices increase in the international market, there are indications that the Federal Government through the NNPC would be under more pressure to fund Nigeria’s petrol subsidy as the price of Bonny Light rises to $65 per barrel in May 2021 from $26 per barrel in the corresponding period of 2020. It would cost more to procure and refine crude oil.

African Refiners and Distribution Association (ARDA) and other experts in the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) industry, on Wednesday, warned of imminent danger in Africa if it fails to quickly adopt modern clean energy as over 850 million Africans still depend on solid fuels (biomass) for cooking. ARDA said solid fuels may continue to kill over 600,000 Africans yearly due to household air pollution.

On Thursday, stakeholders in the energy industry, called for cautious optimism and a public policy document as NNPC handed over the Port Harcourt Refinery to Tecnimont SPA for the commencement of the $1.5 billion rehabilitation project in Port Harcourt.

Foreign

Oil prices fell on Monday as a catastrophic second wave of a coronavirus epidemic in India cut short a recovery in oil demand thereby offsetting optimism about a strong rebound in consumption in developed countries and China in the second half of the year.

Oil prices dipped on Tuesday after more U.S. states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract vaccinated travelers, helping to offset concerns over fuel demand in India as COVID-19 cases soar.

African OPEC member, Angola signed a $5-billion memorandum of understanding with its neighbor to the east, Zambia, to study the construction of oil products and gas pipelines between the two countries.

Iran and the United States are making progress in talks to revive a nuclear deal which could lead to a lifting of U.S. sanctions that would allow Iran to ramp up oil exports, but no significant breakthrough yet. A top Iranian official said, Iran will be able to raise its crude oil exports to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) after the U.S. sanctions on its oil industry are lifted.

State-run oil producer Saudi Aramco beat analysts’ forecasts on Tuesday with a 30% rise in first-quarter net profit and maintained its dividend payout, helped by strong oil prices, higher refining, and chemicals margins, helping offset lower production.

Oil prices rose early on Wednesday after industry data indicated U.S. crude stocks fell much more than expected last week, reinforcing bullish views on fuel demand in the world’s largest economy.

Oil prices rose on Thursday, recouping early losses at the close of the previous session, as crude stockpiles in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, fell more sharply than expected as refining output rose and exports surged.

Oil prices recovered on Friday, after a 1% dip at the close of the previous session, on buoyant economic data from China and the United States, even as the surging COVID-19 pandemic in India capped prices. Brent had a weekly growth of 1.44%

Expectations

In the coming week, oil prices are expected to be mixed as India’s COVID crises worsen and countries in Europe begin to ease restrictions.

Dukia Gold anticipated to deepen the commodities market in Nigeria

On Friday, the Lagos Commodities and Futures Exchange announced its readiness to begin gold trading with the admission of Dukia Gold’s diversified financial instruments, backed by gold as the underlying asset.

Dukia Gold said the instruments, which would be in the form of exchange-traded notes, commercial papers, and other gold-backed securities, would enable the company to deepen the commodities market in Nigeria, increase capacity, generate foreign exchange for the government to diversify external reserves, and create jobs across the metal production value chain.

Gold appreciated by 3.79% while Silver also inched up by 5.82% Week on Week (W-o-W).

Gold prices are expected to be bullish in the coming week, as the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates low amid weak U.S. April jobs report.

Agriculture sector outlook for the week

The previous week seemed promising for the agricultural sector as growth was recorded across the major sub-sectors. Cocoa prices were bullish by 2.14%, Corn prices jumped by 9.23% Week on Week (W-o-W), while Sugar also grew by 3.75%.

Expectations

Cocoa prices are anticipated to decline next week pressured by a widely forecast global surplus for the current 2020/2021 season.

Sugar prices are expected to rise next week due to supply tightness in India and Brazil Corn prices are expected to rise in the coming week on strong demand by China and supply shortfalls from top grower Brazil due to bad weather.

Fixed Income and Money Market Outlook

Money Market

System liquidity was constrained this week despite OMO maturity that happened at the beginning of the week.

Funding rates fell significantly at the close of the week. Open Buyback (OBB) closed at 14.75% while Overnight (O/N) rates closed at 15.25% indicating a Week-on-Week (W-o-W) decline of -45.05% for OBB and -46.36% for O/N rates.

Funding rates are expected to remain elevated in the coming week.

Treasury Bills Market

The overall trading activity for the Nigerian Treasury Bills for the most part was quiet this week.

At the close of the week, the average benchmark yield for T-bills rose by +2.47% to close at 4.86% while OMO bills rose by +6.06% W-o-W to close at 8.39%. Yield for CBN’s Special bills also declined by -1.66% W-o-W to close at 6.53%.

Activity in the treasury bills market is expected to remain subdued next week as system liquidity remains relatively tight.

FGN Bond Market

The Bond market sustained its static performance this week as market participants remain on the side-lines amid the rising interest rate coupled with the tight system liquidity.
At the close of the week, the market was bearish with selling interest seen majorly across the board.

The overall average benchmark yields closed at 9.09% for the week which increased W-o-W by +3.32%.

Debt Management Office on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria Offered for Subscription and received applications for the FGN Savings Bond for May 2021.

2-Year FGN Savings Bond due May 12, 2023: 7.753% per annum

3-Year FGN Savings Bond due May 12, 2024: 8.753% per annum

Coupon Payment Dates: August 12, November 12, February 12, May 12.

FGN Eurobond Market

The Nigerian Eurobond market maintained its relatively quiet trend this week as the market continued to trade sideways. The average benchmark yield closed at 6.14% at the end of the week.

Market sentiment is expected to remain soft in the near term in the absence of any trigger.

Trading at the Foreign Exchange Market

On a Week on Week (W-o-W) basis, the Naira remained flat against the dollar at the BDC window, however, against the British Pound and Euro it was bearish.

At the I & E FX window, the Naira was depreciated marginally by -0.08% at the end of the week.
It depreciated against the British Pound by -0.30% while against the Euro it depreciated by -0.69%, closing at $/N482, £/N676, and Euros/N587 at the BDC window.

The Naira closed the week at $/N410.33 at the I&E FX window, at the NAFEX (spot market) it closed at $/N410.82.

More of the same is anticipated from the foreign exchange end in the week ahead.

Nigerian Capital Market

The Nigerian bourse closed the week negative with a decline of -1.60%. The Nigerian Stock Exchange lost N415.88bn in Market capitalization W-o-W while YTD return and market capitalization currently stands at -2.66% and N20.43trn respectively. The volume and value of stocks traded on the exchange this week declined by -27.24% and -5.02% respectively.

Performance across sectors tracked was mixed this week as the NSE Oil and Gas was the highest gainer for the week with +5.98% while NSE Consumer Goods and NSE Banking advanced by +0.62% and +0.62% respectively while NSE Insurance, NSE-30, and NSE -IND closed the week negative with -2.20%, -1.94% and -1.60%.

Outlook

In the coming week, we expect the negative trend to spillover, however, press releases from listed companies and macroeconomic developments are likely to impact investors’ decisions.

In addition, we expect investors to monitor the movement of yields in the fixed income market.

Summarized Economic Outlook

The Nigerian Export Processing Zones Authority and the National Bureau of Statistics have agreed to partner to enable the agencies to share relevant data on import and export points and gauge the contribution of the Free Trade Zone Scheme to the national economy.

The Central Bank of Nigeria disclosed on Thursday in a circular to all Deposit Money Banks, International Money Transfer Operators, and the general public, titled ‘Re: Introduction of the CBN’s “Naira 4 dollar scheme” for diaspora remittances’ that it had extended the program indefinitely which was earlier scheduled to end on May 8, 2021.

According to the data from CBN’s January report on capital importation and capital outflow, the FDI declined to $60m in January 2021 from $90m in December 2020. It noted that a total of $0.38bn new capital was imported into the economy in January 2021, compared with $0.55bn in December 2020.

A disaggregation of capital importation by type of investment showed that inflow of Other Investments accounted for the largest share at $0.29bn, and represented 75.5% of the total, followed by FDI inflow of $0.06bn, which accounted for 16.4%.

According to the report, capital importation by nature of the investment, banking accounted for 39.6%, shares 31.5%, production/manufacturing 12.8%, telecommunication 6.1%, financing 6%, and agriculture 4%. A breakdown of capital importation by originating country showed that the UK accounted for 46.8%, Netherlands 20.1%, Republic of South Africa 7.9%, United Arab Emirates 6.5%, Singapore 4.2%, Denmark 3.2%, and Hong Kong 3.1%.

According to the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission, growth in investment announcements grew in Q1 2021 by +74.8% Year on Year (Y-o-Y). The total investment announcement increased from $4.8bn in Q1 2020 to $8.41bn in Q1 2021. Manufacturing had 60% ($5.08bn), construction 34% ($2.9bn), electricity 3% ($0.26bn), agriculture 1% ($0.07bn) make up the list of industries on the investments announcements list.

Nigeria’s Federal Executive Council last week approved the National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy (NPRGS) which is intended to accelerate the reduction in poverty through economic growth, social protection programs, etc.

The FEC also announced the establishment of a Nigeria Investment and Growth Fund to invest in commercially viable projects in priority sectors that will promote growth and innovation, enhance local value addition, and create employment.

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