The real cost of Rivers’ election nullifications

– Prologue

–  Introduction: The smooth old days

–  The polarisation

– The N250bn bond loss

–  World Bank AfDB missed water project loan

– The crash of federal allocation

–  Drying up of federal projects

–  Non-refund of spend on federal projects

–  Relegation of Rivers State at national level

–  Grounding of Rivers jet

– Stalling of security chopper

– Violent elections and high electoral spending

– Return of abductions, robbery and insecurity and tension

– Receding businesses and financial hardship

– Instability and low rating environment

– Uncertainty ahead

– Conclusion: Other states are powering ahead in the race to attract investors

On the day the Rivers State Governorship Election Tribunal (RSGET) nullified the election that brought in Nyesom Wike of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), supporters of both parties trooped to the International Airport at Omagwa drumming and dancing to encourage their masters, the gladiators in the endless supremacy fight that has caught the attention of the entire world. Jubilation went on inside the VIP lounge area, but outside within the parking areas where commoners stood and watched the drama, a man raised his voice a bit saying the tribunal should have awarded the victory to either party. He said what neither Wike nor Chibuike Amaechi knew was that another round of killing would soon start in the various communities in relation to another election. “They will not know how many people that would die in almost every village”.

Looking back now, the Peter Odili years can easily pass as the golden age of Rivers politics for the mere fact that the medical doctor gradually brought almost all the movers and shakers in the state to one umbrella, and seemed to render ineffectual the few that did not surrender. Thus, disagreements were few or easily nipped in the bud. Any aspirant who craved for power would strive to get Odili’s endorsement, and it was as good as the ticket. This remained so until the famous K-Leg issue where Amaechi’s name was withdrawn from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), a matter that divided the once cohesive Odili camp into two factions that have caused sleepless nights for over eight years, beginning with the Amaechi versus Celestine Omehia camps.

Amaechi’s Supreme Court victory launched him into the Brick House to become also political leader of the oil-rich state. Wike, a former local council boss said to be installed by Amaechi emerged as the most powerful man in the cabinet (as Chief of Staff in Government House). Wike was to become minister of education (state) through Amaechi recommendation in the second tenure as Wike had helped to install Amaechi again in 2011 as his campaign director-general. In 2012 however, Wike led a mutiny that broke the PDP into two and handed party structure to Aso Rock through an Abuja court verdict. Amaechi fought back without success and had to pull away to the rival party (now APC) with the government structure, thus setting the stage for a national battle that eventually played out in 2015. Ever since, both kinsmen and allies have remained sworn enemies, and this has sharply divided the entire state into two bitter camps, causing ruin and destroying almost everything that was built since 1999.

…Abductions, robbery and tension

At a point, Rivers was known for abduction, violent robbery, inter-cult wars, and general tension. Businesses fled to wherever, and the economy collapsed as towns and villages as well as waterways became infested with abductors, raiders, killers, pirates, and common criminals. Amaechi took over and rejected negotiation or money-for-peace schemes but opened fire in all directions. He recaptured the state capital and some other towns. Businesses began to test the waters and soon, Port Harcourt boomed again. This was when trouble struck again in 2012 after the Abuja court verdict.

 The first thing that snapped was security. For the fact that security is on the exclusive list in the constitution of the Federal Republic, the agencies are directly under the Commander-in-Chief (Goodluck Jonathan) who used this power to put Amaechi under pressure. The security chiefs in the state led by the Commissioner of Police withdrew their support and the apparatus which was roped an Israeli intelligence system collapsed. As the then governor lamented, security meetings stopped and assistance from the Government House dried up, giving gunmen upper hand. This was so till Amaechi left office and Wike stepped in.

The new governor has so far tried to paper this problem over. The PDP has taken over the state but the APC has taken over in Aso Rock. The imbalance has returned. The bad blood between the state government and the centre (PDP and APC) would never allow the state and FG sit down over confidential details. Experts have said it must take closing of ranks between Brick House and Aso Rock to get to the roots of the violent crimes in Rivers and the effective protection of the nation’s oil assets such as the NLNG, the oil majors (Shell, Agip, Mobil, Total, etc), power assets, industrial centres, the 200-company cluster (Onne) including a petrochemical complex, two refineries, fertilizer plant, three seaports, two airports, boat yards, gas export terminal, two trunk pipelines that cost billion of US Dollars to replace, and countless oil wells.

With fresh elections that would hardly be peaceful due to the abundance of firearms, militants (both ex and current), willing hands, bitter camps, cult gangs, etc, many analysts believe that it would be difficult to restore security of lives and property in the state as long as imbalance remained, as long as Brick House and Aso Rock remain in antagonism.

Close to the issue of massive insecurity is the stalling of the Rivers State armoured (security) helicopters or choppers. At the apex of the security plan by Amaechi was the acquisition of two helicopters (BH 412 four axles) at the cost of almost $29million (N4.7billion then) in 2012. The then governor had even visited the choppers in Florida, USA, and was said to be satisfied. David Meyers, the chief executive officer of MPD, the security consulting experts that help to keep Israel safe, and that was chief consultant to Rivers security project, had described the choppers at an open security briefing at the Atlantic Hall of Hotel Presidential in Port Harcourt as ‘very expensive but effective’. The FG was still happy with Amaechi and was said to have paid $15million out of the $29million because it was seen to be wrong for a state to wholly own such security assets and command them alone.

Before the choppers could be airlifted to Nigeria, the political crisis that tore the ligaments of the joint of the FG and Rivers State exploded. The FG was said to have withheld permit to ship the assets and this knocked off the much-awaited plan to deploy the armoured helicopters to duty. They were capable of bringing in visuals of any spot to a central control room manned by the joint security team so that response could be instant. They could through infra-red cameras catch kidnappers, reveal where victims were hidden, see at night, etc. Oil companies jubilated and offered to pick up the bills for tracking oil pipelines and facilities. This dream died. The state is still paying the price as the elections get nullified and hopes of a peaceful version dissipate.

The story of the grounding of the Rivers State-owned Bombardier (Global 5000 Bombardier Jet) shook the nation in 2013. It was perhaps the first time this would happen to any state government. The Jet bought with between $45million and $50million (depending on which side of the divide you listen to), was an important state asset but it was claimed by the political crisis because the presidency felt the Bombardier was becoming an alternative presidential jet ferrying leaders of the opposition around the country. The grounding seemed to mark the grounding of the state’s economy and other fortunes. With inconclusive elections in the state, the fate of the jet remains bleak.

Amaechi met a budget of N280billion for 2008 when he came to power in October 2007, but reviewed it to N554billion, perhaps the biggest fiscal plan for the state ever. This continued to come down because of receding federal allocations till it came to N338billion in 2015. Gingered by the boom of 2008, he embarked on numerous projects and gigantic ones too, such as the N150billion monorail, the N160billion relocation of the UST, and 750 primary schools. When funds could not carry, he sought to raise N250billion development stock via capital market (bond) as many other states had done.

This was stalled by the political crisis because it required sign-offs by some federal government desks, but this never came. Probably to push through, the administration was forced to take up short but expensive ‘bridging’ loans that required immediate repayment. Coupled with the global meltdown and later the oil crash, the state suffered untold financial squeeze and also lost a cheap fund that would have pushed most projects to completion levels where their economic benefits would start pouring out. This window may never come in the near future, and the loss is for the entire state, not any of the combatants.

Closely associated with this is the stalling of the Rivers Water project designed to meet World Bank standards especially for its ability to meet sustainability standards and private sector involvement. This had attracted $280million (N44billion then) long term loan offer which would have allowed the state build a world-class water system that would pay for itself through metered water reticulation system. The papers lay on the finance minister’s desk until it was too late to realise.

Anticipating the loan from 2013 made the state to budget N20billion but was able to release a mere N1.5billion by September of that year. The state budgeted N8billion again in 2014 but could not get the loan, and it gave up.  It was to fund a draft policy signed into law on May 31, 2012 for the establishment of the new organisations that would drive effective service delivery in the sector. These agencies were to include the Port Harcourt Water Corporation (PHWC), the Rivers State Small Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Agency (RSSTOWA), the Rivers State Rural Supply and Sanitation Agency (RUWASSA), the Rivers State Water Services Regulatory Commission (RSWSRC) and the Rivers State Water Sector Coordination Committee.

Another novel initiative in the reform could be said to be the establishment of Water Consumer Associations (WCA) in the communities to manage water supply schemes in the LGAs for sustainability through cost-recovery for operations and maintenance. The strategy was for the WCAs to engage the private sector in the actual running of the schemes and train local community people as plumbers, operators etc. This is cost of the endless political wars in the state; something most observers and followers of both camps do not care to find out.

Rivers was touted to account for 60 per cent of oil revenue to the federation account. It was the beautiful pride in the Gulf of Guinea. Not all sister states felt pleased with this status. The political crisis seemed to help the jealous states to strike and steal the cheese while the princes fought. Loss of oil wells eventually boosted the FAAC of Akwa Ibom to N12billio whereas Rivers crashed from N25billion to N7bilion by September 2015 figures. Bayelsa which used to be behind Rivers by about half is now close by N6billion to Rivers N7billion. As the election crisis continues, hopes of putting up a united front to regain lost grounds disappear.

During the golden age (Odili years), Rivers State was awash with federal projects and appointments. Odili was believed to have played appropriate politics that attracted huge goodwill. When Omehia took over, the bitter wars raged and insecurity took over. Amaechi came and soon the ill-health of the president started and Jonathan had to take over. When time to get the gains came, crisis had erupted and no meaningful federal project ever came.

With the nullification and resurgent crisis, it would be difficult to attract projects from the centre, analysts said.

Closely associated with this is non-refund of funds spent to execute federal projects. Amaechi said this amounted to over N100billion, but no word ever came from the FG. Details showed that many other states recouped theirs and many more are still recouping. The nullification of the Rivers election and the sounds of war may not give the present governor the time and atmosphere to pursue this, just as it never allowed Amaechi to get a dime.

The late A.K. Dikibo (deputy national chairman of the PDP, south-south) once said Odili had taken the state so high that no national decision would be taken without Rivers State. After Odili, the crisis of K-Leg whittled down this effective representation, reducing the state’s national lobby machinery. It rose a bit during Amaechi’s tenure as chairman of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF) but many said Amaechi used most of his influence to pressure the presidency, until the bubble burst. Now, with endless elections and reruns that may end in more crisis, the situation may become worse.

Businesses fled the state between 2005 and 2007 due to frequent violence caused by militancy and cult wars. This ebbed a while after that period. Now, daily abductions, brazen robbery and killings seem to scare away investors once again. While other oil states are encouraging businesses in the face of oil price crash, Rivers State seems to rather scare them off with the rumbling sound of impending political wars. This seemed to be coupled with financial hardship in the land. With nullification now a reality, there are fears and businesses seem to vote ahead with their feet.

When international rating agencies were made to rate the Rivers financials, political stability attracted high marks and in fact underlined all other risk factors. It also served as an adjunct or ‘but’ to every rosy score assigned to the state, meaning that those scores remained true only as long as political stability was guaranteed. The upcoming election caused much deduction of marks especially from the sovereign scores. Now, election crisis and persisting issues exacerbated by nullifications could cost the state more credibility.

For years, many say guns speak louder than voice during elections in the state. To this day, many accused the politicians of arming the boys with guns for the 2003 elections, leading to the 2005 violence and thereafter. This fear was raised even higher in 2014 towards the 2015 elections. In fact, this issue of violence and mass deaths are the subject of litigation at the tribunals. Also, elections cost a fortune to prosecute in the state, far higher than the national average put at N2billion for governorship. A man who won a senatorial election in the state in April 2015 is said to have pumped several billions of naira such that after victory, he was said to be wondering whether it was worth the cost.

If governorship and 21 House of Assembly elections come up again, the human, material and financial cost would surely be overwhelming. If hundreds died the last time, more hundreds may have to die this time around, it is feared.

The immediate future of the state is full of uncertainty. None of the political combatants is doing anything to douse this fear, despite empty appeals to members to remain calm. The secretary to the state government (SSG), Kenneth Kobani, said at a Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) annual general meeting in Port Harcourt last Thursday that instability was no bed-mate to investors. True! The business community is fretting.

Political tension was a fact all over the country but that has died down in most of the states such as Lagos, Enugu, Cross River, etc, and their governors are busy catching lost time. Other states are powering ahead in the race to attract investors. In Rivers State, an end to smoke seems not in sight.

That is the real cost of the nullifications.