The contest for Abuja (2)

The field for the 2015 presidential election is now complete –incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan and Vice-President Namadi Sambo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will square up against former military head of state General Muhammadu Buhari and his running-mate, Professor Yemi Osinbajo (SAN) of the All Progressives Congress (APC). As I wrote in the first instalment of this article several weeks back, this will probably be the most competitive presidential elections Nigeria will experience since return to civil rule in 1999, which is, at least in-principle, good for our democratic development. Nigeria has willy-nilly succeeded in creating a two-party system in which very few electoral contests at the state or federal government can be taken for granted, which is also a positive democratic development. As I have stated on several occasions, however, the major limitation is that the emerging two-party structure is so far not based on any
discernible principles, ideas or ideology and the membership of the two parties is fluid and fluctuating based on temporal calculations and political convenience. In reality, as it stands the two parties are mere platforms for contesting elections and not political parties in terms of stable and coherent membership and policies.
Jonathan’s main advantage is incumbency. He will try to focus the election campaign around his tangible performance in several key sectors – agriculture and the reforms carried out in the sector by his agriculture minister, Akinwunmi Adesina; the macroeconomic story around GDP growth and Nigeria becoming the largest economy in Africa; investments in critical infrastructure especially roads, revival and modernization of rail and aviation infrastructure, and power sector privatization which has laid the foundation for electricity sector improvements; policy reforms in respect of sovereign savings, housing, automobile sector, and industrial development manifesting in the growth of the manufacturing sector. President Jonathan and his spokesmen will argue that his verifiable performance is stronger than the political propaganda suggests but will battle to refute opposition attacks concentrated on his three vulnerabilities – security, corruption and oil
sector management. The vice-president’s substantive contribution to Jonathan’s re-election may only be in respect of the defence of Kaduna State.
General Buhari on the other hand will be contesting his fourth presidential election and will run against a framing as a perennial loser. His weaknesses are centred on an image as parochial, inflexible, undemocratic and weak in policy and administration, all of which are justified by the historical record!
His public career is filled with ethnocentric, irredentist and religious inflammatory rhetoric and actions and his image and reputation is well-earned, though intense propaganda has attempted to obscure the facts. For the first time in his political evolution, Buhari has passed through a democratic process in securing the presidential ticket of the APC, but it is not clear that at over 70 years, he has changed his views on anything or can change his attitude to politics, policy, religion, democracy or fundamental human rights. My views on Buhari’s qualification (or non-qualification!) for Nigeria’s presidency are well known – I have never
considered him suitable, based on publicly available facts, and the viability of his candidacy is based almost exclusively on a regional/sectarian popularity and the inability of Jonathan to fulfil the aspirations of many of our countrymen and women, especially in relation to terrorism.
Buhari has selected a good running-mate, Professor (Pastor) Yemi Osinbajo (SAN), targeting the Southern/Christian/Pentecostal vote and the Yoruba voting bloc in general and the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG) in particular. Osinbajo’s candidacy builds upon Buhari’s ticket with another pastor, Tunde Bakare of Latter Rain Assembly, in 2011, except that RCCG is larger and more mainstream and Osinbajo has been a participant in AD/AC/ACN/APC politics in Lagos State since 1999 and held the position of attorney-general for eight years.
The candidacy introduces several risks for RCCG which may be in danger of being dragged into partisan politics and presents the dilemma of what several may regard as a poisoned chalice to the church. Osinbajo, of course, also stands as a trusted ally and representative of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu on the APC presidential platform.
The elections for presidency are essentially just six weeks away and, as they say, a week is a long time in politics but the numbers I have run with my colleagues in RTC Advisory Services suggests a fairly close contest. I will update the data weekly until elections are held and publish my projections close to the polls. What is clear is that the elections may be fought (in spite of all pretensions to the contrary) on regional, ethnic and religious sub-texts. It was revealing, for instance, that the main APC contestants for the party’s candidacy were Fulani Northern Muslims (discount Okorocha and Sam Nda-Isaiah who no one expected to win!) and were APC to have by some inadvertence elected either Isaiah or Okorocha, the party may have immediately collapsed. Note also the regional posturing emerging from Northern political groups immediately Buhari emerged that confirm their expectation that the election is really about reclaiming the North’s lost
presidency. It is also clear that the “South-South” and “South-East” will endorse Jonathan on reverse regional basis, while the bulk of the North-Central may vote on religious basis.
In effect, the election may be fought in the South-West, which it is to be noted extends beyond Lagos (!) and which has a substantial non-native population whose voting inclinations may mirror their regions of origin.