… inflation to hit 33% in October
Nigerian households and firms are betting on a likely cooling of prices over the next six months as the nation’s central bank struggles to tame high inflationary trends that are hammering consumers’ spending and eroding business gains.
According to October’s Inflation Expectation Survey released by the Abuja-based bank, “many respondents believe that CBN announcements impact Inflation,” even as the widespread perception holds that the current inflation rate is high with urban settlers feeling the heat the most.
“The overall perception of the current inflation rate shows that most respondents believe the inflation rate is high,” the CBN said.
“Further analysis indicates that this perception is mainly driven by household respondents,” it added.
The report further revealed that of all types of businesses, small businesses, which account for 96 per cent of Nigerian businesses and 84 per cent of employment were the hardest hit by high inflationary pressures.
This is just as households with an income group of N150,000 to N200,000 were the ones grappling more with high prices which has weakened their purchasing power and increased poverty levels.
The survey revealed that the major driver of inflation for both households and firms is the rising energy cost. Both petrol and electricity costs, particularly for Band A, have soared since the removal of its unsustainable subsidies by the new government.
The President Bola Tinubu administration last year cancelled some costly gasoline subsidies that have kept prices artificially low as part of the series of ongoing reforms to kickstart the slowing economy. But this has raised prices and led to a cost of living crisis for ordinary Nigerians.
The surge in energy costs means shrinking disposable income for households and lower profit for firms who are equally contending with multiple taxation, exchange rate volatility and high interest rates.
In September, Nigeria’s persistent battle with inflation reignited, with the consumer price index surging to 32.70 per cent, a sharp reversal from the two-month decline witnessed earlier on petrol price hike.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Consumer’s Price Index increased to 32.70 per cent in September 2024 from 32.15 per cent in August 2024.
In the same vein, the month-on-month inflation rate for September 2024 went up 0.30 per cent to 2.52 per cent, from per cent recorded in August 2024.
Nigerians experienced an upward review of PMS prices from N950/Litre to N998/Litre in Lagos and as high as N1,003 in northeastern states in October, the second increment in two months.
Analysts however project that the further hike in fuel prices will elevate the inflation rate for October and may extend till January before another round of moderation may be recorded.
“In the coming months, we anticipate an uptick in core inflation, as further increases in PMS prices are likely to pressure the energy and transport inflation. Currently, PMS prices are above N1,000.00 in most states in the country,” Analysts at CardinalStone Research said in its October inflation report.
“Overall, we project that headline inflation will reach 33.0% In October 2024 vs 32.7% in September 2024,” the report stated.
Join BusinessDay whatsapp Channel, to stay up to date
Open In Whatsapp