5G connections growing faster than any previous mobile technology — GSMA

GSMA, the global telecoms body, has disclosed that the number of 5G connections globally surpassed 1.5 billion at the end of 2023, making it the fastest-growing mobile broadband technology to date.

It revealed this in its ‘The State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2024’ report. The industry body noted that 5G only took four years to reach this number, while 3G took 10 years to reach the same milestone and more than five years for 4G.

“Having surpassed 2G and 3G in terms of number of connections in 2023, it is expected to become the dominant global technology by the end of the decade. The number of connections on 2G and 3G networks will continue to decline in the coming years as users migrate to 4G and 5G,” said the industry body.

GSMA, however, noted that while 5G deployments are starting to take off in many low-middle-income countries (LMICs), they are unlikely to become the predominant mobile technology in many countries even by 2030.

For instance, Nigeria commercially launched 5G in 2022 after licensing operators in December 2021. So far, connections have grown to 2.33 million, 1.04 percent of the country’s 219.01 million total mobile subscriptions in March 2024.

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In 2023, Ericsson noted that the 4G network was expected to remain dominant in Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan African countries.

“In the pursuit of modernisation and enhanced connectivity, subscribers are constantly migrating toward 4G networks. This trajectory indicates that 4G will be the primary driver for new subscriptions up to the year 2028. By the end of 2029, 4G subscriptions are forecast to account for half of all mobile subscriptions,” it said.

According to GSMA, 5G is expected to become the dominant global technology by the end of the decade. However, much of this is expected to occur in developed countries.

“More than 100 countries and territories had not launched 5G networks at the end of 2023. More than 80 percent of these are LMICs. GSMA Intelligence forecasts that by 2030, 5G penetration in LMICs will be around 55 percent, compared to 120 percent in high-income countries,” stated GSMA.

The industry body explained that 5G means an improved mobile user experience. By the end of 2023, the average download speed on the network hit around 230 Mbps—an increase of more than fivefold compared to 4G.

“This provides high-speed fixed broadband connectivity to households unserved or underserved by fixed networks, particularly those without fibre or cable network access. It can also help close the digital divide between and within countries. It represents an important use case for operators aiming to drive revenue growth. However, in most countries, 5G FWA adoption remains low; there is significant room for growth,” it highlighted.

It noted that while 5G will become increasingly valuable to those using it and drive socioeconomic benefits, it will not become predominant across all countries because of the high investments needed and the high cost of devices.

“As things currently stand, the investments required to make 5G close to universal will be deferred until there are tangible signs that the revenue growth required to sustain necessary capex levels can be achieved. GSMA Intelligence forecasts that 3G and 4G will account for just over 60 percent of mobile broadband connections in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, MENA, and Latin America & the Caribbean by 2030,” it noted.

It added that policymakers, the mobile ecosystem, and the international community must continue to expand the availability of 4G technologies, which remain capable of delivering “the meaningful connectivity targets set by the ITU.”