As the World Cup rumbles into its knockout phase, it does so leaving out some very big names including Spain, the reigning world and European champions; Italy, four-time winners and Euro 2012 finalists; and Cristiano Ronaldo, the reigning Ballon d’Or winner and his supporting cast (Portugal).

Indeed, if you go group by group, you’ll notice that in six of the eight, one of the two highest FIFA-ranked nations failed to advance. And all six of them were UEFA nations. I’m sure there are a whole bunch of theories to explain this, but the possibility that the FIFA rankings – which in addition to being imperfect -end up skewing favourably towards European teams is one you may want to take into account.

Looking at the bracket, you’re immediately struck by how lopsided it appears. The top half includes Brazil, Germany, France, Colombia, all potential winners, plus a host of “tough outs” who could yet surprise, including Nigeria, Uruguay, Algeria and Chile. The bottom half seems tailor-made for Lionel Messi and Argentina, with only the Netherlands and possibly Mexico and Belgium as potential stumbling blocks.

Here’s a rundown of today matches:

NETHERLANDS vs. MEXICO, Fortaleza, Sunday 5 PM

The Netherlands have been very strong in the tournament and have so far only conceded one goal.

Mexico have qualified from a group which had group favourites Brazil and two other similar teams and have showed the quality to keep up in the World Cup so far. Their veteran defence led by Rafa Marquez will be tasked with slowing the competition’s most potent striker tandem: Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben.

Mexico head coach Miguel Herrera’s game plan ought to be obvious: press the often clunky back three, force them to bypass the midfield and hope that Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben don’t punish you. Dutch coach Louis van Gaal has had to do plenty of tinkering to mask the Dutch deficiencies everywhere but up front, which suggests this will be an intriguing tactical battle.

COSTA RICA vs. GREECE, Recife, Sunday, 9 PM

Surprise package vs stubborn warriors. The least likely of the knockout round match ups features two teams who’ve found success without seeing much of the ball. Greece’s last minute winner against the Ivory Coast clinched their first knockout round spot, while Costa Rica were the surprise winners of one of the tournament’s deepest groups. Shockingly, one of these teams will be in the quarterfinals.

It’s the clash of the pre-tournament ugly ducklings. But while Los Ticos are halfway to becoming full-fledged swans, Greece has had to scratch, claw and will their way to this stage. The danger for Costa Rica after three big-name opponents is a psychological blow now that they face an opponent as favourites.

Greece’s blue-collar ethos serves them well and, in Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Kostas Manolas, they have one of the best centre-back pairings in the tournament.

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