The FIFA 2026 World Cup is rapidly becoming one of the biggest sports betting events in history, with a series of shock results already wiping over $5 million from prediction-market traders.
The latest upset came on Monday when World Cup debutants Cape Verde held tournament favourites Spain to a stunning 0-0 draw in Atlanta, triggering massive losses for bettors who had heavily backed the European giants.
While the volcanic archipelago nation of just 525,000 people celebrated a historic result, inspired by veteran goalkeeper Vozinha, a pseudonymous Polymarket trader known as “betoor619” suffered a near-total wipeout.
Read Also: World Cup debutants Cape Verde hold Spain to goalless draw
Spain draw costs trader $1million
According to trading records on prediction market platform Polymarket, the trader lost almost $1 million after staking nearly $1 million on a Spanish victory.
At the time of the wager, Spain were considered overwhelming favourites, with the market pricing their chances of victory at around 92 percent.
Had Spain won, the trader would have earned an estimated profit of about $85,000. Instead, Cape Verde’s disciplined defensive display and a string of crucial saves from 40-year-old Vozinha ensured the match ended goalless, wiping out the position.
The loss was particularly notable because the account had reportedly never recorded a gain or loss greater than $9,000 on a single event before the World Cup.
Spain, viewed by many analysts as one of the leading contenders for the title and backed by a Goldman Sachs model with a 26 percent chance of winning the tournament, struggled to break down the African debutants despite dominating possession and chances.
More World Cup upsets hit prediction markets
The Spain-Cape Verde stalemate was not the only result to punish high-stakes bettors.
Another Polymarket trader, operating under the pseudonym “FlickRaw,” reportedly lost $2.7 million after backing the Netherlands to defeat Japan before Sunday’s dramatic 2-2 draw.
The same account then risked approximately $1.5 million on Belgium to beat Egypt. That position also collapsed after Egypt held the Belgians to a 1-1 draw on Monday.
The back-to-back disappointments are estimated to have cost the trader around $4.2 million.
Tournament proving costly for favourites
The opening week of the FIFA 2026 World Cup has delivered a succession of surprise results, challenging bookmakers, analysts and prediction-market participants alike.
Cape Verde’s draw against Spain ranks among the biggest shocks of the tournament so far, while Japan’s comeback against the Netherlands and Egypt’s draw with Belgium have further highlighted the unpredictability of the competition.
With several group-stage fixtures still to be played, traders who continue to place large wagers on heavily favoured teams face increasing risks.
For now, the World Cup is generating not only drama on the pitch but also multimillion-dollar swings in the rapidly growing world of sports prediction markets.
Join BusinessDay whatsapp Channel, to stay up to date
Open In Whatsapp
