Prophecy, prediction and public trust: A statistical audit of Nigeria’s prophetic culture

In Nigeria, few social rituals are as predictable as the wave of prophecies that accompanies each new year. From declarations about elections and economic fortunes to warnings of disasters, deaths and breakthroughs, prophetic pronouncements occupy a powerful space in public life. For a deeply religious society, they offer reassurance, moral framing and a sense of divine order amid uncertainty. Yet as the country grapples with inflation, insecurity and political volatility, a harder question is gaining traction: how reliable are these prophecies