Political observers seemed to have watched the strongman of Nigerian politics, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State place him in a particular hole, but recent developments may have obscured their vision.
Nigerians began by wondering if Wike was the messiah to come and rescue them from the deteriorating situation in Nigeria or they should wait for another. Wike seemed to fit the bill as he daily railed on the presidency and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) especially during the Covid-19 pandemic when he took unilateral actions such as arrest of those cleared by federal authorities and devastating statements that cast him in the mode of a fighter protecting his people.
His ceaseless attacks on President Muhammadu Buhari without reply seemed to endear him to Nigerians who wanted someone to lead them to ‘war’. He it was that began the media war against Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) which caught on to become #EndSARS Movement that almost sank Nigeria along with the APC-led federal government.
Wike also provided platforms for people to speak out their minds against the situation in Nigeria and led the way for those who had grievances to talk about. Most governors came around to whisper their grievances against the FG hoping that Wike would put a mic to it. He had put funds to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that left federal power since 2015 to rally them into a powerful opposition, beginning from a big confidence-building workshop in Port Harcourt soon after he became governor. That was where the PDP was taught how to serve in the opposition and how to oppose.
Wike seemed to find best ways to win court cases, and the PDP seemed to need such strategy a lot. So, most political leaders wanted to be in his good books to tap from his judicial grace in political cases almost anywhere in Nigeria. They did not forget how Wike seemed to cut his teeth in such judicial wands when he took the Rivers State PDP of 2012 to Abuja courts where he was able to prove that the chairman was no more to be G.U. Ake (now late) but Felix Obuah to the amazement of political watchers in Rivers State. The magic turned the fortunes in the state against the then governor, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi. To Wike such that Amaechi had to flee to the newly formed APC then, from where they lost Rivers State to Wike and the PDP.
As hopes for another transition came close, Wike, who seemed to have perfected the art of campaigning without campaigning every May to August in the guise of commissioning of projects brought many important national figures to Rivers State to cut tapes in the glare of at least four national television live coverage for about three hours each.
This was how he was beamed into every home and thus heart in Nigeria. Thus, when it was time to seek a president, Governor Nyesom Ezebunwo Wike of Rivers State seemed to be the obvious option and the most popular aspirant. After all, he had won Man of the Year many times and back-to-back in many national newspapers who appreciated his projects and stoic profiling and strong personality.
Many suddenly realised that the Nigeria was observing rotational and revolutional presidency which required the presidency not only to revolve from north to south but also from zone to zone. It started from the South-West under Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 and revolved to the North West (Yar’Adua died) and it revolved and rotated to the south to South-South (Goodluck Jonathan) for six years before it went up north again to Buhari who will complete eight years term to make NW get 10 years since 1999.
Nigerians thus expected power to revolve back to the south hopefully to South-East in expectation of the rotation to all the six geo-political zones of Nigeria in the plan to create stability through sense of belonging to all major tribes and zones of the country. The first shock was that the former vice president and chieftain of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, stepped out early to stake the position. This seemed to signal to the political class that the slot was no longer reserved to any zone but was to any or highest bidder. Others who wished to step out but were hesitant not to destroy zoning now found courage to put a stake to the presidency and make the SE look undeserving or unserious for the presidency. The heat became so hot that Peter Obi of the PDP fled to the Labour Party. The coast now became clear for Atiku and Wike.
Wike was understood to have made his calculations, one of which was that he was from the south and the PDP was respecter and initiator of zoning. Some said Wike was Igbo, such that if the chips were to come down, he could be right to collect whatever belonged to those who speak same language, even if not same tribe. The matter became so contentious that Atiku said if Wike agreed to step down for SE, he would step down too. By this time, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC had bulldozed into the race to also make final nonsense of zoning. So, Atiku and Tinubu seemed to lead the quest for the presidency and an onslaught against zoning. Many said they killed zoning.
At this point, Wike thus saw himself as the conscience of the south in the PDP and fighter for southern justice. At the PDP primaries, it was clearly a battle between north and south, and Atiku versus Wike. Atiku won. Wike was shocked. The victory of Atiku meant that if the PDP won, it would north handing over to north; south losing out, some said Fulani-Fulani handover.
Before that, Wike had told the world that he does not go into any election he was not sure to win, and that he used to investigate all the cards. Many thus concluded that for him to throw in the gauntlet, he was surely sure.
It means that Wike never bargained for vice president. He thus spat on the possibility to the extent that nobody ever believed he would make anybody’s deputy. But, last minute, Wike seemed interested, keen, and finally desperate for it. That was when some his home detractors concluded he was desperate to be in power especially as the chance to be a senator had eluded him.
Many spoke in hushed tones that because of his fierce battles with his kinsman, Amaechi, and the stand of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) by declaring the Accountant-General of Rivers State seen to be close with Wike (Sim Fubara) wanted over N117Bn cash withdrawals, that trouble may stalk the governor immediately after May 2023. The only way out was thus to ensure that Fubara gets into immunity or Government House and Wike gets into immunity as vice president, at least.
Many believed that this was why Wike pressed very hard to get the same running mate he spat upon many times.
What is official however is that Governor Wike showed anger for not being picked for running mate to Atiku and this led to explosive exchanges until the party and the nation began to wonder what would please Wike. The campaign council was constituted with Wike inside but he seemed to get angrier and on Wednesday, September 21, 2022, he and his camp members met in Port Harcourt and pulled out. They gave reasons.
Why they pulled out
Wike, Makinde, Bode George blame PDP for not resolving Ayu matter before campaign council composition.
Wike and his camp explained why they pulled out of the PDP campaign council, saying the party failed to resolve the boiling issue of the party chairman’s resignation first.
As the nation wondered whether it was true or not, Gov Wike, his Oyo State counterpart, Seyi Makinde, Bode George from Lagos and other stakeholders, issued a statement saying they solved not to participate in the PDP presidential campaign until Iyorchia Ayu resigned as the national chairman of the party.
The statement signed by Gov Wike’s media aide, Kelvin Ebiri, said they emphasised that the publication of the Presidential Campaign Council list without the resolution of the Ayu lingering debacle translates to “putting the cart before the horse.”
The statement quoted Gov Makinde as saying they hoped that the powers that be within the PDP would listen to the voice of reason and do the needful.
The former PDP South -West national vice chairman, Olabode George, who read out the communiqué after the meeting, said they were concerned about the divisions in the party, and bemoaned the failure of the leadership to utilise the internal conflict resolution mechanisms to ensure inclusiveness of all and guarantee victory for the PDP.
“The published presidential campaign council list translates to putting the cart before the horse. The pertinent issue before the party remains the resolution of the Ayu leadership debacle, which is a departure from the spirit and letter of our constitution which undermines the unity of our great party.
“We therefore resolve that Senator Iyorchia Ayu resigns as the national chairman of the party for an acting chairman of Southern Nigeria extraction to emerge, and lead the party on the national campaign.
“Consequently, we resolve not to participate in the campaign council in whatever capacity until the resignation of Senator Iyorchia Ayu.”
In the same vein, former Plateau State governor, Jonah Jang, said the description of Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal, as the PDP presidential primaries hero by Ayu is antithetical to the principle of justice, fair play and equity on which the party was formed.
“It is true that everything is been done for us to have internal democracy in the party. But, for the national chairman to go and embrace Tambuwal, calling him the hero of the convention, which means there was a private arrangement that was done with Tambuwal to shortchange other contestants, including Gov Wike. Here was a referee who now helped one of the sides to score a goal, and then blow the whistle that a goal had been scored.
“This is not what we formed the PDP to do for Nigerians, and therefore, we unequivocally asked that Ayu has to step down so that having got the presidential candidate from the northern part of the country through his assistance, he should as well now step down so that a national chairman can move to the south, and the party can be united for the campaign towards 2023.”
He said Wike and others call for Ayu to resign is aimed at addressing the structural imbalance in the party’s hierarchy.
On his part, former Minister of Information, Jerry Gana, said if PDP cannot restructure itself, it cannot restructure Nigeria.
He insisted that as committed PDP members, they’re sincerely desirous that the PDP returns to power and provide Nigerians excellent governance.
“Therefore, this call for the chairman to step down or resign is not because any of us is aggrieved, but because we believed it is important to ensure a fair structure, a just structure, a principle structure, a constitutional structure for the party.
Gana maintained that they will remain committed members of PDP, but will continue to insist that the right things be done. “We remain PDP, but we want things done justly, fairly, equitably.”
Former Gombe State governor, Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo, who also spoke, declared that they will work for the party to the extent that fairness, equity and justice is ensured in the party. Those who attended the meeting are Rivers State governor, Nyesom Ezenwo Wike; Oyo State Governor, Seyi Makinde; former governors of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose; Olusegun Mimiko (Ondo); Donald Duke (Cross River); PDP South -South national vice chairman, Dan Orbih; former Attorney General of the Federation, Mohammed Adoke, SAN; Olaka Nwogu; Lado Danmarke; Mao Ohuabunwa; Sandy Onor; and Sulaiman Mohammed Nazif.
Others include, Chibudum Nwuche; Ibrahim Shehu Gusau; Nnenna Elendu Ukeje; Mohammed Maifada; Bayo Lawal; Mohammed Jamu; Caleb Mutwang and David Emmanuel Ombugadu.
Read also: Wike hints on what will happen if PDP crisis is not resolved
Which way, Wike?
By the pullout, most political observers wondered what Wike would likely do next, especially as Atiku camp seemed to reject their demand for Ayu’s sack.
The next day, Wike came out declaring his next stand. He declared that he would not leave the PDP for whatever cause and for anybody.
The governor stated that he was rather interested in preserving the sanity of the party and will stay back to fight for the enthronement of unity, inclusivity, equity and peace in the PDP.
Wike made the declaration at the Rivers State PDP stakeholders meeting at Government House, Port Harcourt on Thursday.
The governor said he is a man of character, unlike those who cannot keep their words and walked out of the party at the Eagle Square in Abuja in 2014 (Atiku Abubakar?).
“One thing I have always told people is, if anybody is thinking, doing anything to think that we will leave PDP, foul. We will do the fight in the party. We are not like them, when in 2014 they walked out from Eagle Square. They’ve forgotten. They walked out and joined APC. Is it not correct?
“Did they remain to fight inside the party? But we remained, they ran away. Now, there is a fight in the party, we will not run. We will fight it in this party. Those who run away from fight are weak people. We will not. So, everybody should know this is the state where we are, so that nobody tells you all kinds of stories.”
Governor Wike insisted that the constitution of the party clearly stated that elective and party offices must be zoned which, should be respected.
Wike wondered why the former PDP BOT chairman will be pressured to resign and the PDP national chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu is excusing himself from keeping to doing what is right.
“You have taken presidential candidate, you have taken party chairman, you have also taken the D.G (director general) of the campaign. We are talking about party politics. Decisions are made by the presidential candidate, chairman of the party and the D.G of the campaign.
“They are telling you they told the chairman of the BOT to resign. So, you know there is a problem. You said he should go and resign. You can put pressure on him to resign when his tenure hasn’t come to an end. But you cannot put pressure on the chairman to resign. You think at our level you will deceive us. You’ll tell us stories.”
Governor Wike recalled how in 2015 the federal government used the military to invade Rivers State, interfered with and even annulled elections, but was resisted.
The governor recalled he made sure the senatorial results for Rivers East was announced that delivered Senator George Thompson Sekibo and that of Rivers West that produced Senator Betty Apiafi.
Gov Wike regretted that despite the risk taken to deliver them, the same people are now in Abuja plotting against him. He said they won’t succeed because God has blessed him.
The Rivers State governor also clarified that he never promised anybody governorship ticket of the PDP despite the pressure some leaders mounted on him or attempts made to divide the State House of Assembly.
Governor Wike said though he didn’t clinch the PDP presidential ticket, he actually made a good account of himself at the primary.
The governor informed that by next week, Rivers State PDP campaign team will be unveiled and the campaign pattern adopted will be based on each local government peculiarity.
Wike emphasised that all PDP candidates in the State will be returned elected by Rivers people who are satisfied with the performance of his administration.
“We will take all. We are taking all because Rivers people are happy with what we have done in this state. We have not only provided infrastructure, we have also defended the interest of Rivers State.”
He explained that it took courage and firmness for him to protect the interest and assets of Rivers State without compromising it with politics.
Governor Wike explaining that besides securing a refund of money illegally deducted by the federal government over the Police Trust Fund, his administration recovered oil wells wrongly ceded to Imo State and is collecting the accruing revenue from the oil wells in disputed area between Rivers and Bayelsa States.
The governor stated that the federal government won’t be able to use the army and the police in the 2023 election because Nigerians will vote for political parties on the basis of their performance.
He cautioned party members who want to be moles and work against the PDP because they were not given the ticket that they sought.
The governor urged party members to be steadfast because God is on their side, and since they have not known defeat, PDP cannot be defeated in 2023 general election in Rivers State.
In his response, State Chairman of the PDP, Desmond Akawor, said the party in the state has already passed a vote of confidence on Gov Wike for the way he has piloted the affairs of the State.
He commended the governor for the consistent delivery of projects, defending the interest of the State, and declared that they will continue to follow the leadership that he provides.
Options before Wike
Even before he announced he would not defect, some insiders had told BusinessDay that he would not defect. A political communications expert who was very close to Wike and now closer to Amaechi, Oby Ndukwe (famed to be media FBI) is one of those who insisted Wike would not defect.
She told BusinessDay: “It’s obvious that Wike wants to stay back in PDP to deliver his people going to the National Assembly. For presidential, he will probably throw his weight behind Tinubu. During the campaigns, I don’t expect him to mention Atiku or APC, but his followers know where he stands.
“That too is going to be a problem. The real voters do not understand this kind of politics. They know one way, PDP or APC. So, it’s going to be 50-50 loss in Rivers. By his prompting, the voters will likely vote APC in the presidential if he says vote for APC. Then he will lose his candidates in the National Assembly if he mentions vote for BAT.
“It’s not like before with the old Electoral Act where you can manipulate and get the kind of result you wanted. It is going to be dicey. He is so accustomed to the old ways of one man delivering votes. Now it is BVAS, it’s going to be dicey. He has to be careful.
“When you come to your wits end, this is the kind of thing you expect, confusion. It’s like being at the crossroads, not knowing where to proceed next.”
On how this ranks with Amaechi, she said the former Transportation Minister came a distant second. “If he is not ready to support BAT because of his relationship with Wike, he has to make up his mind fast. If he shuns BAT, he will have the risk of not being able to deliver his candidates in Rivers State. If you ask me, I think he will like to remain silent. He will want to deliver his state whether he gets something or not.
“For me, let the silence continue. His best option is to remain the way he has been. Let him continue to remain silent. Let him not go out there to support Atiku, because he will look like Wike. Its not everybody that can do what Wike is doing. It looks like suicide mission.”
Making further analysis, Ndukwe said March 2023 may be slippery. She wondered if Ayu goes, if Wike would ever trust Atiku Abubakar enough to work for his victory. The answer is a simple “No”. The reasons are not far-fetched. Atiku Abubakar will not also let himself be bruised again after tasting Obasanjo’s toxins, the scars and hurts of which he is still battling to remove.’
She said the simple truth is that Wike is committed to Tinubu based on the return leg of the 2019 match, where his second tenure was eventually made easy after a tough 21 days battle which ought to have sent Wike packing from the Government House, considering the letters of the Constitution.
“It was Tinubu and his Aso Rock contacts who made the famous call to INEC when the result from Rivers was declared inconclusive similar to Daniel’s 21-day Fast.
“No matter how much Atiku pacifies Wike, the sacrosanct truth is that Wike is fighting back, not against Atiku but his former friend and classmate, Aminu Tambuwal, who it was that scuttled Wike’s near-win at the presidential primaries. It was his moment to take power!
“In a twinkle of an eye, all hopes were dashed by a Northern Conspiracy. It is now Wike’s turn to garner a Southern conspiracy against Atiku and Tambuwal but the centre has refused to hold.”
She said the issues are clear, that after the second tenure in office, the Rivers strongman should have gone to the Senate but he preferred the big meat, presidency.
“With all that hope dimmed, he would rather align with Tinubu who is ready to strike a deal with him rather than mend fences with Amaechi, the one he once addressed as the General of the Commonsense Revolution.
“To him, Amaechi is the wounded lion who may need more time to heal and may not be strong enough to muster the needed support from Rivers and beyond. Tinubu and Wike both know that Rivers APC members including those who defected to PDP or SDP will cast their votes for APC.”
She suggested that Amaechi is not likely going to borrow a leaf from Wike by urging his supporters not to vote APC, knowing that he has a Governorship candidate amongst others to deliver.
“It is actually a win-win situation for the APC in Rivers, even if Amaechi is not hailed for the victory in the end.
“Two things are critical to Wike now. First, to ensure his protégé Sim Fubara is elected Governor and Tinubu as President. These guarantee his protection from probes and grant him perpetual immunity until the next government.”
Ndukwe said the Rivers Governor is smart but he must learn from the experience of Rochas Okorocha who would have sacrificed his Senatorial ambition for his son-in-law to become Governor.
“Uche Nwosu would have had him protected better than a Senate seat which has no immunity. There are times when one needs to seek God’s wisdom to find direction, and this is one such time. I hope Wike finds direction.”
Conclusion
Wike is not defecting as he has stated. He is believed to have bruised so many persons everywhere that he can’t move out of the PDP. He however is not going to work for Atiku while in the PDP. Even Atiku knows that, no matter any reconciliation.
What is not known is how the voters would manage the conflicting messages and body languages from both Wike and Amaechi, both of who are going to be out of power for the first time in 24 years with political threats everywhere. Wike will be in PDP but will work for APC for the presidential election; Amaechi will remain in APC but will definitely motion his followers to vote anywhere they wanted other than Tinubu. Will Peter Obi pick the pieces?
