The presidential of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar who believes that he was fraudulently denied victory in the 2019 elections, says President Muhammadu Buhari has personally assured him that next year’s defining elections will be free and fair.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Atiku who described the next election as his last, said: “I’ve gotten a commitment from the president (Buhari) personally, because I sat down with him twice, that even if it is the only legacy he will leave, he will make sure he conducts free, fair and credible polls.”
The election will pit Abubakar, of the opposition People’s Democratic party (PDP), against Bola Tinubu, of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and Peter Obi, of the Labour party, who has emerged as the first credible third-party candidate since Nigeria’s return to democracy 23 years ago.
According to the Financial Times, a recent poll of registered voters in rural communities in 12 of the 36 states put Obi ahead.
No one in Nigerian history has run for president more times than Atiku Abubakar. The top prize has eluded him on each occasion.
In February, the former vice-president will make his sixth attempt as Nigerians choose a replacement for outgoing president Buhari. This time, political aides and analysts say, the complicated electoral maths of Africa’s largest economy may count in his favour. “It is a life-long ambition and as long as I’m alive and strong and healthy, I will continue pursuing it,” Abubakar, 76, told the Financial Times at his suite in one of Lagos’s most luxurious hotels after a campaign rally.
But he quickly added, “I’ve come to the last stage now. I don’t think after this I will run again.” Amid a throng of jubilant supporters in the hotel lobby, a long-serving Abubakar aide sketched out his boss’s route to victory. Abubakar, he said, would give his opponents a close run in their southern strongholds and take advantage of Buhari’s absence on the ballot for the first time since 1999 to win the vote-rich north by a wide margin.
Amaka Anku, Africa director at the Eurasia consultancy, said Atiku had advantages that could work in his favour. “Atiku is a household name and being well-known across the north and being a northerner, given the structure of Nigeria’s voter rolls, is a major selling point,” she said. But his success is not guaranteed.
Voters may have become “jaded” by his repeated attempts at the presidency, she said. A 2010 US Senate committee report linking Abubakar to the transfer of $40mn in “suspect funds” to America has deepened voters’ suspicion about his rectitude. He denies wrongdoing. Atiku’s party has also been unsettled by internal divisions since he emerged as candidate in May.
Read also: Why Nigerians must be sensitive to 2023 election, recurring promises
Five governors, including the governor of the oil-rich Rivers state, say his candidacy solidifies northern control of the party and have demanded the resignation of party chair Iyorchia Ayu, a northerner, to rebalance power with its southern base.
Whoever wins in February faces a tough in-tray. More than 8,000 people have been killed since the start of this year by violent groups, such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State of West Africa Province. Inflation has soared to more than 21 per cent, the naira currency has plummeted to record lows, and unemployment is at 33 per cent.
Atiku styles himself as a pro-business candidate, promising the privatisation of the state-owned oil company and a “restructuring” of Nigeria to devolve more power to the states. “We will look into [previous] constitutional reform reports, update them and work with the governors, national assembly and state assemblies to amend the constitution to reflect the type of federation we want,” he said.
Atiku is still stung by his 2019 defeat, an election many expected would be a close race but ended with Buhari’s re-election by almost 4mn votes, extending his margin of victory from the previous poll. Abubakar claimed the vote was stolen: “All well-informed sources believe I was rigged out,” he said. He added that this election would be harder to manipulate because of reforms, including the electronic transmission of results, by the electoral commission that have been deployed in recent gubernatorial elections.
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