Sanwo-Olu, Jandor, Rhodes-Vivour in three-horse race in Lagos guber

With the commencement of electioneering ahead of the 2023 general election, the race for who will rule Lagos State for the next four years has begun in earnest.

In the last few months, there have been alignment and re-alignment of political gladiators in the state to where their interest would best be served.

In recent decades, the contest has always been between candidates of the nation’s two biggest parties, however, the emergence of the Labour Party as a formidable front in recent months has added a new twist to the contest and perhaps made it more competitive.

Since the advent of democracy in 1999, Lagos State has been ruled by the ‘perceived’ progressives.

From Alliance for Democracy (AD) to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) to now All Progressives Congress (APC).

Over Seven million votes are at stake in the 13,325 polling units in the next year’s March election.

According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), sixteen political parties are presenting candidates for the gubernatorial poll.

The candidates include incumbent Governor of the state Babatunde Sanwo-Olu, candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Adediran Azeez Olajide candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour candidate of the Labour Party (LP).

Others include Dickson Hakeem Olaogun (Accord Party), Balogun Tope Abdulrazaq (AA), Olayiwola Hakeem Olajide (AAC), Doherty Olufunsho Adeshina (ADC) and Bamidele Ishola (ADP).

Others are Kupoliyi Funmilayo (APM); Adeyemi Abiola Roseline (APP); Oluwo Olawale Wasiu (BP); Jim-Kamal Olanrewaju Olalekan (NNPP); Braithwaite Akinwumi Ishola (NRM); Uthman Olakunle Taofeek (SDP); Ajayi Wasiu Adebayo (YPP); and Adenipebi Mode Adekunle (ZLP).

However, a few months to the gubernatorial election slated for March next year, most of the political parties do not have a presence in Lagos State.

Several of these candidates are just to fill the space, most of them having no intention to compete.

Observers say the present situation did not come as a surprise, because that has always been the case with fringe parties.

Ahead of next year’s poll, pundits have predicted that just like in the past, most of these gubernatorial candidates in Lagos would announce their withdrawal from the race few weeks to the poll and give their support to the ruling party’s candidate and incumbent Sanwo-Olu, or the main opposition candidate, Adediran after striking a deal.

Investigation by BusinessDay revealed that most of these gubernatorial candidates in Lagos only exist on paper with nothing on ground to show their readiness to compete at the poll. Similarly, few of these political parties can’t boast of a functional party secretariat in any part of the state.

Thus, it is expected that the governorship contest will be a three horse race among the candidates of the three major political parties; APC’s Sanwo-Olu, PDP’s Adediran and LP’s Rodes Vivour.

The three front runners and their chances

Sanwo-Olu, APC

Incumbent Governor Sanwo-Olu took over power from Akinwunmi Ambode in 2019 after defeating several other candidates for the position at the poll. However, his emergence as the candidate of the APC was beset by controversy and acrimony after the then governor, Ambode was denied a second term ticket by the power-brokers in the party, despite his popularity among the people of Lagos.

It is fair to say that since assuming office in 2019, Sanwo-Olu has tried in several areas of infrastructure development across the state.

His supporters say across socio-economic strata of the metropolis, everyone can feel the impact of the governor.

The governor eloquently distilled his THEME agenda. The acronym, T.H.E.M.E.S, represents the six pillars of the state’s strategic development agenda, namely: Traffic Management and Transportation, Health and Environment, Education and Technology, Making Lagos a 21st Century Economy, Entertainment and Tourism, as well as Security and Governance.

Today, water transportation has gained traction among the people in the coastal areas and hinterlands. The eight ferries locally constructed in Lagos are helping by scaling the capacity of indigenous craftsmen.

In the last few months, the administration has launched eight units of additional ferries, named after prominent Lagosians including, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to complement the existing six ferries in the fleet of Lagos Ferry Service.

Millions of Lagosians were treated for eye-related problems through the blindness prevention programme. Sensitisation on the control and prevention of HIV/AIDS was done through the Lagos State AIDS Control centre.

During his tenure, partnership in health between the government and private sectors was greatly promoted.

One of the projects which caught the World Health Organisation’s attention and placed Nigeria as the fourth-best country in the world was how Lagos State impressively curtailed the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before Sanwo-Olu took mounted the saddle, refuse disposal and management was a huge challenge. Sanwo-Olu reorganised LAWMA and empowered them to do their job.

Read also: ‘Is Peter Obi Momentum a movement towards voter participation or just a distraction?

Strength

Sanwo-Olu may still leverage on this structure to hold sway at the poll. He also has to his credit, policies and projects that may speak for him. For instance, the blue and red line railway projects. This is a laudable project that would change the face of transportation in the state with time.

Furthermore, observers say that Sanwo-Olu as an incumbent governor stands a better chance of re-election, especially taking into consideration the power of incumbency working for him.

Perhaps, one major factor that could work in his favour is that Sanwo-Olu has more financial power than any of the opposition candidates, added with the fact that his godfather, Tinubu, is running for presidency and cannot afford to lose Lagos.

Pundits predict that Sanwo-Olu may take advantage of the popularity of APC in Lagos and as the ruling party both at the state and national levels to coast to victory.

Weakness

Observers say that the Sanwo-Olu administration when compared with the two previous administrations in the state has not done well enough to deserve a second term.

There is the feeling among the people that his administration, unlike the previous one, has done little in developing infrastructure in inner communities and remote parts of the state.

Sanwo-Olu is not keeping eyes on agencies in the state, some of them are gradually becoming authoritarian and pursuing their self-interest.

Furthermore, a tour across Lagos shows that most roads in remote parts of the state are in bad shape.

There is growing resentment among Nigerians toward the perceived failure of the APC, especially at the federal level, occasioned by the high unemployment and poverty rate, especially among the youths.

Observers say this could affect the chances of APC’s candidates across Lagos and Nigeria as a whole.

There is the thinking among some Lagosians that the revenues accruing to government in the state are not being well utilised, as according to observers, going by the huge funds accruing to Lagos; the governor should have done more.

“Most of the roads are getting so bad, maintenance culture is not there, Lagosians are becoming lawless, appropriate agencies are not enforcing the law, but only after their pocket, he is not checking them.

“There is high level of disenchantment from the people, nobody cares. We can’t really say he has done much for new projects. The excuse of Covid-19 can’t help because other governors are working,” political analyst, Odun Balogun said.

One area that may also work against Sanwo-olu is the multiple taxations going on in Lagos State. They say that Lagosians and Lagos businesses have been over burdened with taxes that are inimical to business growth.

Political watchers are of the view that taxes like the parking tax which is controversial could be used against the governor during campaigns to swing voters.

Also, one major concern for the governor ahead of the poll is the perception that he is not independent in the running of the affairs of the state. Opposition candidates could use this to campaign against him and this could affect the perception of voters towards him.

Jandor, PDP

Since the advent of the current Fourth Republic in 1999, the PDP has tried unsuccessfully in winning Lagos State.

Even in 2015, backed by the Federal Government, the PDP made serious inroads into Lagos, by winning a number of legislative seats in the state and federal level, the number one position still eluded them.

However, ahead of the 2023 gubernatorial poll, there is a wave of optimism among party members especially with the amendment of the Electoral Act to accommodate BVAS and electronic transmission of results. They say this could be their brightest chance to spring an upset and upstage the APC in Lagos.

Party members have always alleged that in the past, they were rigged out in the state, while their votes were tempered with.

They said the ruling party also devised measures to manipulate the system, part of which was intimidation of opposition party members across the state.

Observers also say that the PDP has the best chance of defeating the Tinubu’s backed APC in Lagos with the changes made to the Electoral Law.

Strength

Olajide Adediran, popularly called, Jandor, unlike the previous candidates that have contested the gubernatorial ticket on the platform of the PDP in Lagos in recent years is a grassroots politician who has structures across the state.

As a former member of the APC in the state, he understands how the party operates, strength and weakness of the Lagos APC and would be hoping to capitalise on this at the poll.

It is believed that Jandor has been building structures across the state since seven years ago in preparation to contest the number one political seat in the state. From Jandor Foundation, Ibeli Eko Forum to Lagos4Lagos, it is believed that he has built structures in every ward in the state through these groups.

Another thing that may work in his favour is the support of Atiku Abubakar, the PDP presidential candidate, who is desperate to become the next president.

Observers say what may also work for Jandor and the PDP is that an average Lagosian wants a change of government in Lagos.

The introduction of electronic transmission of results, just like in the Osun and Ekiti gubernatorial elections, perhaps could play a key role in the outcome of the poll next year in Lagos.

Pundits say that Jandor in these regards have the upper hand to arm twist the voters with these campaign messages of re-engineering the state in terms of human resources and fiscal policies for the benefit of the masses.

“He must work out acceptable programmes that would be people-oriented. A total departure of what is obtainable in terms of equitable distribution of resources and financial management,” Kunle Okunade, political analyst, said.

Weakness

There are increasing concerns among the people that perhaps, the perennial crisis which often surfaces during major elections and contribute to the PDP’s inability to win any major election in the state could resurface ahead of the 2023 general election.

Reports of internal wrangling among leaders of the party in the state, if not settled, could weaken Jandor’s chances of defeating the ruling party at the poll.

Some pundits also say that Jandor’s choice of running mate may be his greatest undoing. They noted that street popularity most times, doesn’t translate to political value.

“I am worried about the division in Lagos PDP, with the party chieftains like Bode George not aligning with Olajide Adediran, he may find it difficult to break even. The APC is strong in the state and they have to work extra hard to defeat them,” Nwosu Chuma, political analyst, said.

Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour

Rhodes-Vivour, the LP candidate is displeased with the governance style of the APC in Lagos State and seeks a change of the status quo.

He is of the opinion that with the huge revenue accruing to the state every month, the level of infrastructural development should not be where it is now.

After failing to get the governorship ticket in the PDP, Rhodes-Vivour defected to the LP and picked the gubernatorial ticket in a controversial circumstance.

Although not seen as major force to reckon with going into the gubernatorial election next year, but observers have warned that he should not be underrated in the gubernatorial race, as he could capitalise on the popularity of Peter Obi, the party’s presidential candidate, and support from youths who are sympathetic to the #EndSars protest.

In recent months, the LP has become a formidable force to reckon with, which is challenging the dominance of the APC and PDP in the country.

Since May this year, the party’s popularity, membership and support has increased tremendously as Obi, former governor of Anambra State, joined the party shortly after he quitted the PDP in his bid to contest the nation’s number one seat.

In the last few months, the party’s popularity among the youths, Nigerians, and influence on social media have towered significantly.

Although some observers have said Rhodes-Vivour may be testing the waters, because neither him nor LP have strong political structure in Lagos State to challenge the candidates of the two major parties, he is very optimistic.

Results from his 2019 senatorial election shows that the LP candidate cannot be underrated in the gubernatorial race, having lost to his more illustrious opponent by a slim margin.

In the final result, the Adeola Yayi Olamilekan, the APC candidate polled 323,817, to Rhodes-Vivour 243,516 who scored votes.

The 40-year old Rhodes-Vivour is the convener of the Civil Society Group, Nigerians Against Gmo, anti-GMO advocacy group fighting against the proliferation of Genetically modified foods in Nigeria.

Their protest increased in 2016, following claims by Monsanto that GMOs are safe, tackling the then Nigerian Minister of Agriculture, Akinwunmi Adesina, as well as the multinational company.

Strength

The growing popularity of the LP and the Obidient movement across the country, especially in Lagos State is there for anyone to see.

In recent months, hundreds of youths, disenchanted with failure of governance in Nigeria, who want to change the narrative, have joined the movement.

There is no doubt that Rhodes-Vivour poses a threat to other candidates if he can capitalise on the growing number of the Obidient supporters who would form the bulk of the voting population in 2023 polls.

Some pundits say he has age, to his advantage and youths, who are yearning for system change due to the perceived failure of the ruling party in Lagos State, could vote for him.

Weakness

The LP candidate is not known to be a force to reckon with in Lagos politics; it does not also have the popular support and grassroots structure across the state that could win the governorship election.

Although he hails from a popular family in Lagos, pundits say that may not give him any significant advantage over his opponents.

He is seen in some quarters as a candidate that was brought by the power-brokers to scuttle the chances of others.

However, observers say Rhodes-Vivour, may not have the financial war-chest unlike the APC and the PDP candidates, but he will definitely enjoy the comradeship support from aggrieved groups in the PDP and Lagos at large.

The LP candidate is seen as testing the waters, and this could just be part of that profile-building efforts.