Ondo guber: Factors that could determine election outcome

…Aiyedatiwa, Agboola in straight fight in Saturday’s poll

Next Saturday voters in Ondo State would elect a governor to rule the state for the next four years.

According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 17 political parties have nominated candidates for the election. The final list of candidates published by INEC on June 14th, includes incumbent governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa of the All Progressives Congress (APC), former deputy governor, Agboola Ajayi, of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and 15 others.

The commission, through its National Commissioner and Chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee, Sam Olumekun, weeks ago also disclosed that the two political parties, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP), conducted fresh primaries to replace their earlier nominated candidates and their running mates by the deadline of 10 June.

In the last few weeks, the different parties and their candidates have been campaigning across the state, in a bid to sell their agendas to the voters. It is expected that parties and their candidate would end their campaign by the midnight of 14 November.

However, political analysts have predicted that Saturday’s Ondo governorship election as a two-horse race between the candidate of the ruling APC, Aiyedatiwa, and his main challenger, Agboola Ajayi of the PDP, with the other parties merely completing the list of contenders.

Interestingly, the two main candidates are both former deputies to late former governor Akeredolu, both had fallen out with the late governor, and both survived several impeachment attempts.

The political gladiators are intensifying alliance to win votes in Saturday’s election, however, for many it would be interesting to see where Akeredolu political dynasty will pitch their tent. Though the Akeredolus are members of the ruling APC, they have been at loggerheads with Governor Aiyedaitwa before and after he succeeded late Governor Akeredolu.

Similarly, another scenario that is interesting to observers ahead of the poll is which camp the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, who is serving in an APC administration, will support.

Wike, who single handedly brought former governor of Ondo State, Olusegun Mimiko to join the PDP and is his close friend, both were part of the Integrity Group spearheaded by the G5 governors that gave full support to Bola Tinubu and rejected the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, in the 2023 election.

For many observers, it would be interesting to see if Wike support Agboola Ajayi, a member of his party the PDP, who is a political godson of former Governor Mimiko, or will he support Aiyedatiwa, the candidate of the APC and the ruling party that Wike currently serves under.

Would the situation in the recent Edo State gubernatorial election, where the FCT Minister refused to back his party’s candidate, Asue Ighodalo and rather supported the APC’s candidate through his loyalists repeat itself?

Many people are watching, but the PDP have pledged to fight tool and nail to win the Ondo governorship election. Pundits see a straight contest between the two leading parties that could go either way if INEC allows the people’s will to prevail.

But the APC as the ruling party in Ondo appears to have the upper hand, although there are conflicting reports about the party’s performance in the state in the last eight years.

However, I don’t see much work that the PDP and its candidate have done either in Ondo, not even with the crisis that has engulfed the once ruling party nationally after the 2023 elections.

Thus, considering the desperation of APC to win at all cost in recent off-cycle gubernatorial elections in Edo, Imo, Kogi States, performance and posture of INEC in those elections, some would say perhaps, it is likely the pendulum would swing to the APC and it candidate on Saturday.

Ahead Saturday’s governorship election, here is a profile of some of the candidates.

LUCKY AIYEDAITWA (APC)

Lucky Aiyedatiwa, the sitting governor of Ondo State, was born on 12 January 1965. He hails from Obe-Nla, an oil-bearing community in Ilaje Local Government Area of Ondo State.

Aiyedaitwa had his primary education at Saint Peter’s UNA (now FAC) Primary School, Obe Nla/Obe Adun, Ondo State, and secondary education at Ikosi High School, Ketu, Lagos.

In 1986, he obtained Nigeria Certificate in Education (NCE) in Economics and Government from Lagos State College of Education (now Adeniran Ogunsanya College of Education), Ijanikin, Lagos, and later attended University of Ibadan for Advanced Diploma in Business Administration in the year 2001.

He became an alumnus of Lagos Business School – Pan Atlantic University, Lekki, Lagos where he obtained Post Graduate Certification in Chief Executive Education (CEP) in Business Management in 2009. In 2013, he obtained a Master’s Degree in Business Administration (MBA) from University of Liverpool, United Kingdom.

Aiyedatiwa worked as an Inventory/Store Officer at SCOA Assembly Plant Plc. Apapa, Lagos, between 1982 and 1983. In 1987 he was Assistant Head Teacher at Reliance International Schools, Ijokodo, Ibadan.

He worked as Marketing Officer at Universal Pharmaceutical Supply Co. Ltd, Ikeja, Lagos, Assistant Investment Analyst at Global Trust Limited, Lagos, and General Merchandise Manager, Biz Mart Nigeria Limited, Lagos.

He is established Blue Wall Group of Companies in 1996, with the following subsidiaries: Blue Wall Nigeria Ltd, a trading company; Blue Wall BDC Nigeria Ltd, a Central Bank of Nigeria-licensed foreign exchange trading company, and Blue Wall Safety Travels and Tours, an IATA-licensed travel agency and logistic company.