Muslim-Muslim tickets debate returns as Northern Groups warn APC of 2027 electoral risks

As political realignments gather momentum ahead of the 2027 general election, growing opposition from several northern groups to the possibility of the All Progressives Congress (APC) retaining a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket is emerging as one of the party’s biggest political challenges, with analysts warning that the controversy could influence voting patterns, deepen religious divisions and reshape Nigeria’s electoral landscape.

The renewed debate follows calls by the Northern Ethnic Nationality Forum (NENF) and other Christian-based northern organisations urging President Bola Tinubu and the APC to adopt a more religiously balanced ticket if the party hopes to retain broad national support. The groups argue that while the Muslim-Muslim ticket secured victory in 2023, repeating the strategy could prove politically costly in 2027.

The NENF, led by Dominic Alancha, said national unity, justice and electoral viability demand a ticket that reflects Nigeria’s religious diversity. The forum warned that another same-faith ticket could weaken the APC in politically strategic states across the Middle Belt, including Plateau, Benue, Nasarawa, Taraba, Kogi and the Federal Capital Territory, where religious balance often plays a significant role in voting behaviour.

Similarly, the Christian Media Forum (CMF) recently expressed concern over reports suggesting the continuation of the Tinubu-Shettima ticket, arguing that such a decision would reinforce perceptions of exclusion among Northern Christians and undermine confidence in inclusive governance.

The controversy is not new. When Bola Tinubu selected Kashim Shettima as his running mate in 2022, the decision sparked widespread opposition from the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), the Middle Belt Forum, church leaders and several prominent northern Christian politicians, including former Secretary to the Government of the Federation Babachir Lawal and former Speaker Yakubu Dogara. Despite the backlash, the APC won the 2023 presidential election.

Political observers, however, note that 2027 presents a different electoral environment.

Unlike the 2023 election, the APC now faces growing economic pressures, heightened insecurity in parts of the country and the emergence of stronger opposition alliances. Analysts believe that religious inclusiveness could become a more decisive campaign issue than it was four years earlier.

Some political scientists argue that while performance in office remains the dominant factor in elections, perceptions of fairness and inclusion often influence undecided voters, particularly in ethnically and religiously diverse states.

The debate also has implications beyond electoral arithmetic.

Experts warn that retaining or rejecting the Muslim-Muslim ticket could affect national cohesion by either reinforcing or easing long-standing concerns over religious representation in Nigeria’s highest political offices. Since the return to democracy in 1999, successive administrations have largely maintained an informal tradition of balancing presidential tickets across religious lines, making the 2023 APC ticket a significant departure from that convention.

Supporters of the current arrangement maintain that competence, experience and electoral strength—not religion—should determine candidate selection. President Tinubu defended the choice in 2022 by arguing that the overriding consideration was assembling the team best positioned to govern effectively, regardless of religious affiliation.

Critics disagree

They insist that Nigeria’s complex social fabric requires visible inclusiveness at the highest levels of government, arguing that religious balancing is not merely symbolic but an important confidence-building measure capable of reducing political tension and strengthening national unity.

Beyond the APC, the controversy is expected to influence the strategies of rival political parties, many of which are likely to present religiously balanced tickets in an effort to attract swing voters and dissatisfied blocs across Northern Nigeria.

Political analysts say whichever direction the APC eventually takes, the decision will shape campaign narratives, coalition building and voter mobilisation in the months leading to the 2027 election.

Ultimately, the renewed debate underscores a broader national question: whether electoral success alone should determine political strategy or whether preserving Nigeria’s delicate religious and regional balance remains essential for long-term democratic stability and national cohesion.