Implications of Friday’s Supreme Court rulings on Rivers political crisis

On the surface, the Friday, February 28, 2025 rulings by the Supreme Court simply handed back the reigns of power to the FCT Minister Nyesom Wike. Beyond the surface, however, many sharp irons still stick out their fangs.

There is subdued jubilation in the Wike camp (Amaewhule faction of the Rivers State House of Assembly, the Tony Okocha faction of the APC), and the faction of the PDP loyal to Wike. There is however indignation or anger in the Fubara camp.

Peace:

The first fragile product is peace. The Speaker has ordered all LGAs to vacate office. Knowing the kind of persons that now occupy those positions around the state, it is not clear how simple vacating the offices would be, and who should reoccupy them.

There are indications that the Wike boys (former LGA men) who were driven away by the Fubara boys through an election that has been nullified are warming up to move in. This may create crisis and violence, requiring the police to decide where to defend.

Pressure is said to be on Fubara to declare a state of emergency. Many have called for caution saying it may signal setting fire of oil installations. Fubara has called for calm, asking the people to go about their lawful businesses while awaiting full interpretation of the rulings.

It was gathered at noon that some of the boys in the creeks were stirring. The youths had earlier warned that their oil would not go to other regions while they are denied oil revenue. This may be the most tricky aspect.

Funds:

The most serious casualty seems to be financial. The accounts of the state may be frozen any moment from now, but some say the order is only on the federation allocation (FAAC).

Some suggest that internally generated revenue (IGR) may still be available to Fubara.

Projects:

Arising from clampdown of funds, many projects may be stalled. The confidence to keep working and get paid later may dissipate. When workers don’t get paid, and the programmes for the youths get stuck, it may be difficult to explain the matter to the ordinary people.

Read also: Aftermath of Supreme Court ruling: Amaewhule salutes FCT Minister

Political control:

By what has happened, control of the Rivers State House of Assembly has been handed back to Wike, the power to impeach a governor seems firmly in Wike’s hands, but the processes that would lead to it may not be as firmly in his hands as it appears. The matter of who appoints caretaker committees in the 23 LGAs may be the next battleground. Whoever controls the RSHA and the LGAs would pick 2027, and Wike does not seem to joke with the gameplan.

Impeachment or resignation?

Many say the fighting needed to pull through this fight to 2027 may not be with Fubara going by the way he has been pleading with the hawks in his camp against violence. Many see this as his strength but some others also see it as his weakness.

In the beginning of the crisis, he was said to have offered to quit so Wike would have his way. He was said to have been stopped by both the doves and hawks in his camp. Many offered to help him fight through.

Now, many see Amaewhule going for the jocular (impeachment) while others see Fubara throwing in the towel to reduce damage.

Conclusion:

The battle has only begun, according to most observers.