With less than a year to the 2023 general election in Nigeria, zoning of the presidency has become a very contentious issue and has dominated discussion ahead of the party’s primaries which is expected to begin this month.
Although Nigeria’s major two political parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are yet to take a categorical stand on the issue ahead of their party primaries, talks about consensus dominate the political space.
But political leaders in the South are unanimous in their agitation that power must return back to the zone in 2023 after eight straight years of the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from North-West geo-political zone.
The Southern Governors’ Forum (SGF) has on several occasions called for a power shift to the region after the expiration of two terms of President Buhari next year.
The issue of zoning of Nigeria’s presidency has remained contentious in the last few years. Though unconstitutional, political leaders say it was necessary due to the heterogeneous nature of the country, to address complaints of marginalisation and domination, give equal power to all ethnic groups.
Although some Nigerians have argued that competence should rather determine who governs the country and not ethnicity; they say that zoning is not appropriate way of getting the best president for the country.
The South East geo-political zone is clamouring that it was the turn of the region to rule in 2023 after the eight years of Buhari.
Political leaders in the region say that it would be unfair to continue to deny them the presidency since other regions had ruled since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999.
Leaders of the zone say that the position was not a reserved and exclusive right of any region.
At a meeting in Abia State in January 2021, leaders of the South East unanimously expressed dismay that the region had continuously been denied the presidency. They said that there was no better time to actualise the Igbo presidency than 2023.
They had warned the two major political parties in the country that the region was tired of being used and abandoned, adding that it would not accept any position other than the president.
Edwin Clark, prominent Ijaw leader and first Republic Minister of Information, recently threw his weight behind moves to actualise Igbo presidency by the Ohanaeze Ndigbo in 2023 general election, pledging to mobilise his people to reciprocate by working with the South-East leaders to produce an Igbo presidency in 2023.
Clark said: “I don’t belong to any political party, but I speak my mind. The man who brought politics into Nigeria was the late Nnamdi Azikiwe; I knew him when I was 20 years old when he visited Warri, we trekked 12 miles to come and see him.
“Some of the problems we are having today in Delta were as a result of the support from Azikiwe and without that, we would not have got the Midwest region that later became Bendel State and now Edo and Delta states. We are together, we are one.”
Since Alex Ekwueme’s function as Vice President to Shehu Shagari between 1979 until they were toppled in the 1983 coup, and Ebitu Ukiwe, an Igbo naval officer served as second in command for the military regime of Ibrahim Babangida, the highest the Igbo had attained since then is the senate president.
In the last few months several politicians in the South East have declared their interest to contest for the presidential ticket in their respective political parties. Notably among them are; former governor, Peter Obi of Anambra, former governor, Chris Ngige of Anambra, Rochas Okorocha, former governor of Imo; Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu of Abia; Kingsley Moghalu of Anambra State; Anyim Pius Anyim, Sam Ohabunwa among others.
But judging from the trend of events and the mood of the nation, some schools of thought believed that the chance of the Igbo actualising the presidential dream was perhaps brighter now than any other period since the country returned to democratic rule in 1999.
However, just like in the past where the lack of common purpose and inability to chart a common front had worked against the collective desire of the South East to actualise their presidency bid, there is growing fears that the large number of presidential aspirants may work against the region a head of the coming party primaries.
Observers say that perhaps there is the need for a consensus presidential candidate of Igbo extraction in the leading parties ahead of next year’s election.
They urged that political leaders from the region should immediately begin to strategize towards achieving this objective.
Supporting this view in an interview recently, Chukwuemeka Ezeife, elder statesman and former governor of the old Anambra State, Chukwuemeka Ezeife, advocated for consensus option towards actualising the Igbo presidency quest.
Ezeife said there was the need for the Igbo’s to unite and bring a common consensus candidate among the leading parties from which Nigerians can choose.
According to him, “We have no choice. The best we can do is to bring three people, because we can’t impose our will on Nigerians. Let Nigerians choose; we’ll give them three people we know we trust and they make the choice along with us.”
Although some political observers say that the idea of a consensus Igbo presidential candidate among the leading political parties may be difficult to achieve, when there is no general agreement among them to pick the presidential candidates from the region.
Kunle Okunola, political analyst, said rather than seek consensus candidate option; he would advise that the Igbo should build bridges across the North and the middle belt to help their course of any candidate from the region winning if fielded by any of the two leading parties.
“Getting consensus candidates among the Igbo is not and cannot be an easy task, considering the fact that all the aspirants are not from the same political party.
“Although, building consensus and bridges across the North and the Middle Belt might give the Presidency in 2023, but I don’t see it coming,” Okunola said.
Similarly, Anayo Ezegwu, current affairs analyst, said the South East major demand is for the two major parties to zone their presidential ticket to the region, saying that is what he expects leaders of the zone to be canvassing for.
“Consensus may fail, I don’t think any of those guys would want to step down for themselves, the only way out now is for the parties to zone their presidential ticket to the Igbo,” Ezegwu said.
Indeed, beyond the clamour for power shift, the South-East needs to organise themselves by coming up with a consensus candidate in the PDP ahead of the party’s presidential primary. This may enhance the chance of the Igbo nation rather than a motley crowd dissipating their energy.
For Chijioke Umelahi, former Abia lawmaker and an Abuja-based lawyer, the Igbos are ready to occupy Aso Villa come 2023, as against the belief that they are not, and all they need is for the major parties to show solidarity, apply fairness in their consideration and show support.
“If you look at the quality of the candidates for the East, they are tested and better than all the money bags aspiring to steal more from the national treasury. So, nobody will say there are no Igbo candidates and unlike before when it was only PDP, we have them across all the parties now,” he said.
Umelahi noted that the body language of the Igbo now is any Igbo son, no matter the party, the zone will support him or her.
“I think the Igbos have learnt a lesson. The problem is not getting them united, but fighting outsiders who always come with juicy and false promises to divide them, and the detractors often use force when the unity is getting stronger. In Imo State, where the federal government denied the people’s mandate and installed their stooge and the Anambra election where the Igbos resisted the Federal government, are case studies. There is a rally for Obi and Umahi for the PDP and APC,” he said.
Toeing same line, Edozie Uwalaka, director of Umu Nri Dynasty, a pan-Igbo cultural organisation with focus on preserving Igbo heritage, disclosed that the government is intentionally denying the South East zone presidential ticket because of the Civil War and need to suppress the zone from raising its head again.
“If not, why have the parties upheld zoning since 1999 and now they are throwing the presidential ticket open. It is not fair now. If the two major parties adopt Igbos as their flag bearers, an Igbo man will emerge president in 2023.
“Choosing Igbo consensus candidates by all parties will work because it worked in 1999 when Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae, both from the South West, vied for the presidential seat, which Obasanjo eventually won.
“The king makers then adopted a Yoruba consensus candidate to appease the South West for the death of Moshood Abiola, so they should do the same for 2023 to appease the Igbos who have been marginalised and to appease the secessionists,” Uwalaka said.
Meanwhile, Sam Onikoyi, a Nigerian researcher in Belgium, and an Ondo town indigene in Ondo State, disclosed that the reality is that in democracy it is about numbers and power is also wrestled as nobody gets power without fighting for it, especially in Africa.
He thinks that the Igbos are making some moves for the first time to get consensus candidates by reducing the numbers of the aspirants, and by joining the two major parties.
“I see Igbos and other Nigerians rallying round Peter Obi as a consensus candidate, while Abuja may likely anoint David Umahi or Ogbonnaya Onu, who have been a loyal party member and supporter of Buhari. There is consensus by the fewer Igbo aspirants and I see the presidency throwing in a surprise at the primaries,” he said.
Speaking further, Onikoyi said though the South West is bent on occupying Aso Villa come 2023, as democracy and wrestling for power allow, the reasonable thing would have been to allow the South East zone because denying them opportunity to rule the country is encouraging the secessionists and also breeding bad blood among the ethnic groups.
“Let’s be sincere, all Nigerians have the right to vote and be voted for, if you now disfranchise some people, it does not give them a sense of belonging and that is why we need true federalism to move forward,” he said.
But for those who think the Igbos are not ready or do not have capacity to lead, Umelahi pointed out that the country has not enjoyed the dividends of democracy, and worst still, development has eluded it across all indices since 1999, yet the Igbo man has not been on the pilot seat since then.
“If the pilots since 1999 have not done well and they are not from Igbo extraction, why not try the Igbo and the candidates this time around are all sound-from Peter Obi, Kingsley Moghalu, David Umahi, Anyim Pius Anyim and Ogbonnaya Onu.
“Peter Obi has the Igbo mandate in PDP, while Umahi seems to have that of APC because of his closeness to president Buhari, of course, the former PDP governor is a performer. The fact that Rochas Okorocha, Orji Uzo Kalu and Chris Ngige, APC stalwarts, are not contesting makes Umahi, who is the strongest in APC, a consensus candidate,” Umelahi said.
But Onikoyi thinks that Ohanaeze, the pan-Igbo association, should be central in the Igbo consensus candidacy project, while reaching out to other Igbo groups, sons and daughters for the needed support for the consensus candidates to emerge at the primaries across the two parties.
He also noted that exchanges and negotiations with other ethnic groups, power blocs and current government are necessary for the Igbos to achieve their aim in 2023.
Read also: Conversation is major pillar of democracy to build consensus and action plan –Okudu
In an advertorial by The Unite Nigeria Group recently, it stated that the total months ruled since 1960 was 752 as shown below:
List of heads of government from 1960 to 2023
1. Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, north east, October 1960 – January 1966 (64 months)
2. Major General Johnson Thomas Umunnakwe Aguiyi Ironsi, south east, January 16, 1966 – July 29, 1966 (6 months)
3. General Yakubu Gowon, north central, August 1, 1966 – July 29, 1975 (108 months)
4. General Murtala Ramat Mohammed, north west, July 29, 1975 – February 13, 1976 (7 months)
5. General Olusegun Aremu Okikiola Matthew Obasanjo, south west, February 13, 1976 – October 1, 1979 (43 months)
6. Shehu Usman Aliyu Shagari, North West, October 1, 1979 – December 31, 1983 (51 months)
7. Major-General Muhammadu Buhari, north west, December 31, 1983 – August 27, 1985 (20 months)
8. General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, north central, August 27, 1985 – August 27, 1993 (96 months)
9. Chief Ernest Adekunle Oladeinde Shonekan, south west, August 26, 1993 – November 17, 1993 (3 months)
10. General Sani Abacha, North West, November 17, 1993 – June 8, 1998 (55 months)
11. General Abdulsalami Alhaji Abubakar, north central,June 9, 1998 – May 29, 1999 (11 months)
12. General Olusegun Aremu Okikiola Matthew Obasanjo (Rtd), south west, May 29, 1999 – 29 May, 2007 (96 months)
13. Umaru Musa Yar’adua, North West, 29 May, 2007 – 5 May, 2010 (36 months)
14. Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, South-South, 6 May, 2010 – 29 May, 2015 (60 months)
15. Muhammadu Buhari, north west, 29 May, 2015 – May 2023 (96 months).
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