Atiku set for 7th presidential run after ADC primaries victory

…Analysts, others divided over his chances in 2027

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is set for his seventh attempt at Nigeria’s presidency after emerging as the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) ahead of the 2027 general election.

Atiku, one of Nigeria’s most enduring political figures since the return of democracy in 1999, has contested for the presidency six times under different political platforms, building a reputation as one of the country’s most persistent opposition politicians.

His latest emergence has again sparked debates over his political strength, national acceptance and chances of finally clinching the nation’s highest office after decades of attempts.

Atiku defeated two other contenders for the party’s ticket, former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi, and economist, Mohammed Hayat-Deen. He secured 1,846,370 votes out of the 2,527,977 members who participated in the direct primary election held on Monday.

Amaechi came second with 504,117 votes, while Hayat-Deen polled 177,120 votes to place third.

Atiku first sought the presidency in 1993 during the Social Democratic Party (SDP) primaries but stepped down for the late Moshood Kashimawo Abiola, who later won the historic June 12 election.

Read Also: Let’s join forces to oust Tinubu in 2027, Atiku tells Amaechi, Hayatu-Deen

Following Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, Atiku became Vice President under former President Olusegun Obasanjo and remained in office for eight years.

His first full presidential contest in the Fourth Republic came in 2007 when he flew the flag of the Action Congress (AC) after falling out with Obasanjo. But he lost the election to Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

In 2011, Atiku returned to the PDP and contested the party’s presidential primary against then President Goodluck Jonathan but was defeated before the general election.

Undeterred, he defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC) and again sought the party’s presidential ticket in 2014 ahead of the 2015 election. He lost the APC primary to late President Muhammadu Buhari, who later became president.

Atiku returned to the PDP in 2017 and secured the party’s presidential ticket for the 2019 election. He emerged as the main challenger to incumbent President Buhari but lost after a fiercely contested poll.

In 2023, Atiku again contested on the PDP platform against Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC and Labour Party ‘s candidate, Peter Obi. Tinubu was declared winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), while Atiku challenged the outcome in court without success.

Now heading into 2027 on the ADC platform, Atiku is preparing for what many political observers describe as his final major shot at the presidency.

The former vice president’s emergence came at a period of growing economic hardship, internal divisions within major political parties and increasing public dissatisfaction with governance, factors analysts believe could shape the next election.

Political analyst Jackson Lekan Ojo, told BusinessDay in a telephone interview that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar remains a major force ahead of the 2027 presidential election and should not be underestimated, particularly in the North.

According to Ojo, the emergence of several southern presidential hopefuls may split votes from the region and inadvertently strengthen Atiku’s chances.

He noted that names such as former President Goodluck Jonathan, Oyo State governor, Seyi Makinde and other southern politicians being linked to the race could divide the southern political base into multiple blocs.

Ojo argued that Atiku may benefit from consolidating northern votes, especially with the vacuum left by the late former President Muhammadu Buhari. He recalled that President Bola Tinubu also relied heavily on northern support to secure victory in 2023, stressing that the North remains critical in deciding presidential elections.

He further stated that worsening insecurity, poverty and economic hardship in northern communities could shape voting behaviour in 2027.

According to him, many farmers have been displaced by insecurity, while kidnapping and violent attacks have spread across several regions, including parts of the Southwest.

Read Also: Nigeria now hunger hotspot under Tinubu — Atiku

“The northern electorate is angry over insecurity and hardship. Many people can no longer go to their farms safely. Those realities will influence voting decisions in 2027,” Ojo said.

Also speaking, elder statesman and former presidential candidate Chief Chekwas Okorie, described the 2027 presidential election as likely to be a fierce three-horse race involving President Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.

Okorie told BusinessDay in a telephone interview that Atiku appears to have gained political advantage in the North following the death of former President Buhari, who consistently commanded between 11 and 12 million votes largely from the North-West and North-East.

According to him, Atiku now stands as one of the dominant northern political figures capable of inheriting part of Buhari’s traditional support base, although he noted that it remains uncertain whether the former vice president can fully command such loyalty.

He, however, warned that the influence of the Kwankwasiyya movement led by Rabiu Kwankwaso in Kano could reduce Atiku’s dominance in parts of the North.

Okorie also observed that President Tinubu’s 2023 victory was largely driven by northern votes.

He said the 2027 contest would therefore be highly competitive and urged Nigerians to focus more on competence and credibility rather than ethnic and religious sentiments while making electoral choices.

However, political scientist and former federal lawmaker Bernard Mikko dismissed Atiku’s chances, insisting that power should remain in the South until 2031 in line with the country’s informal zoning arrangement.

Mikko told BusinessDay in a telephone interview that Atiku’s ambition contradicts the position he took during former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration when many northern politicians insisted power should return to the North.

According to him, Jonathan’s defeat in 2015 was largely influenced by claims that the zoning understanding between the North and South had been breached.

“It is the turn of the South to complete its eight years. Atiku cannot successfully challenge that sentiment because Nigerians still remember the arguments made against Jonathan in 2015,” Mikko said.

Other dynamics that will shape Atiku’s chances

Supporters argue that Atiku’s experience in government, political network and national visibility give him a strong advantage heading into the race. They also point to his ability to build alliances across regions and parties as a major political asset.

However, critics insist that voter fatigue may work against him, especially among younger Nigerians seeking fresh faces and a new political direction. Questions have also continued to trail his age and his long-standing presidential ambition.

Another major factor likely to influence his chances is the ability of the opposition to unite ahead of the election. Political analysts say a fragmented opposition could again hand victory to the ruling APC, while a strong coalition may significantly boost Atiku’s prospects.

His relationship with key political figures such as former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi and other influential opposition leaders is expected to play a crucial role in determining the strength of the ADC ahead of the polls.

Although the 2027 election is still months away, Atiku’s emergence has already reshaped the political landscape and signalled the beginning of another fierce contest for power.

For Atiku Abubakar, the 2027 race represents not just another campaign, but a defining moment in a political journey spanning more than three decades.