With the announcement of the date for the presidential primaries in Nigeria’s two major political parties, aspirants are now intensifying their strategies on how to clinch the ticket of their parties.
With the array of presidential aspirants already on parade, the real battle is expected to take place at the primaries.
It is also expected that the next weeks leading up to the primaries would witness serious political intrigues, alignment and realignment of forces.
There are high level consultations by aspirants who crisscross the length and breadth of the country seeking endorsements by some powerful elements, particularly from those touted to “own the country.”
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are scheduled to hold delegate primaries next month ahead of the June 3, deadline for the submission of candidates by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
In both parties the primaries are expected to be keenly contested among the leading aspirants, partly due to the winner-take-all kind of politics played in Nigeria.
In the last few months, several leading politicians have publicly signified their interest to contest their party presidential ticket in the two major parties.
Although it is presumed that some of the aspirants are not serious about their ambition and are only in the race to negotiate their political future, no aspirant will go to bed and sleep on the assumption that other aspirants were featherweight contestants.
Observers also said that part of the reason the primaries would be a battle is the high cost of the nomination forms.
“What may likely raise the tempo of the contest at the primary level is the high cost of forms. Even the PDP where the form was sold for N40million, an aspirant losing such an amount of money would feel it for some days.
Even if the money did not come from their pocket, those who contributed the money for them were expecting that they would reap someday.
Then, in the APC, N100million form is not a joke, especially when there is no guarantee or promise of any form of refund in the event that an aspirant fails to clinch the ticket. So, it is going to be a serious battle,” Rufus Onye, a grassroots politician, told BusinessDay.
The APC last week fixed its presidential nomination and expression of interest forms at N100 million.
The expression of interest form for presidential aspirants is expected to go for N30 million while the nomination form is pegged at N70 million.
This, however, contrasts with the N40 million that the main opposition party, the PDP, is charging its presidential aspirants, comprising N35 million for nomination forms and N5 million for expression of interest forms.
In the PDP, there are seventeen top politicians jostling for the ticket at the presidential primary slated for May 29.
Some of the aspirants are former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal; a United States-based medical doctor, Nwachukwu Anakwenze; Newspaper publisher, Dele Momodu; Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike; Investment Banker and Economist, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen; former governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi; Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Udom Emmanuel and a Pharmacist, Sam Ohuabunwa.
Also in the APC, several notable politicians have declared interest in clinching the presidential ticket they are, Governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State; Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi State; former Abia governor and serving senator, Orji Uzor Kalu, former Imo governor and senator, Rochas Okorocha, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, Minister of Labour and Employment, Chris Ngige, among others.
Voting at the primaries is expected to be done by delegates, an affair that has often witnessed moneybags politicians deploy funds to bribe or secure the votes of the delegates.
However, since incumbent governors are in control of the party structure in their states, they often hold the ace in party primaries in Nigerian politics in the last few decades.
This makes their support crucial for any aspirant to emerge victorious.
Ahead of the primaries in the two parties, observers say that the support of incumbent governors and the aspirants’ ability to win the heart of Northern delegates which often are the majority would be crucial for success.
They said that the presidential aspirants would need to get substantial numbers of the governors to their side.
“Politics is about negotiation and renegotiation; they have to consult and re-consult the party’s delegates to seek their votes during the primaries. Mind you, the delegates’ list and most often the governors control the delegates on how and who to vote for,” Kunle Okunola, a political analyst, said.
Okunola added that the presidential aspirants’ strong relationships with the governors and some members of the National Assembly hold the ace in party primaries in Nigerian politics.
“I know by now, many aspirants would have promised and assured the governors and NASS members of some advantages if they emerge victorious in 2023.
“Politics is about negotiation and renegotiation, so several bargaining will definitely be going on right now both in the APC and the PDP,” he added.
Similarly, Public Affairs Analyst, Tinu Oke, said having the backing of North delegates would be crucial towards the victory of any aspirant at the primaries since they would form the bulk of the delegates.
He, however, stressed that the delegates and the party would want an individual with wide support nationally and strong financial strength so that they can do well in the main election.
Read also: Nomination fee: PDP sees APC inflicting maximum pain on members
According to him, “It is worthy of note that the North would be another factor. As it is constituted in both parties, the north controls 60 percent of the delegates while the south controls 40 percent.
“The implication of this is that whoever the North supports would definitely emerge the candidate because the region is known for its unity in any presidential convention.
Speaking further, he said, the real battle would be for Northern votes, adding that in most instances the Northern leaders know who they are supporting.
“In the South, the story is different because the major candidates can only get delegates from their geo-political zone.
“So, it will be a battle for Northern votes and the northern leaders Know who they are supporting.
“Money would be a defining factor in the primaries both in APC and PDP because both parties are setting for delegate convention,” Oke stressed.
But Aloysius-Michaels Okolie, a professor of Political Science, berated the manner primaries are being conducted in the country, noting that the current practices where governors hijack delegates was not healthy for democracy and had contributed to bad governance and the emergence of irresponsive and irresponsible leaders.
He advocated for a holistic change in the manner presidential primaries are conducted in Nigeria.
According to him, “That is why they want indirect primaries; what we have is a system where few people, I mean cabal, would just choose who they want as delegates and these people would go on and do blind voting according to what the governors say.
“That is the reason why Nigeria is like this, leaders have failed; they distorted governance and it is undemocratic and would not lead us anywhere.”
Unlike President Buhari’s intervention before the APC’s recent National Convention where he anointed Abdullahi Adamu as the consensus candidate for the party’s national chairman, he has said nothing about anointing any of the Presidential aspirants before the convention. But he has recently advised the Adamu-led National Working Committee (NWC) of the party to provide a level playing field for all aspirants during the primaries.
In APC, the game is still open despite the talks about “anointing” by President Buhari. Buhari’s influence, if there will be any, would be seen after the primaries.
BusinessDaySunday gathered that it is difficult for any of the APC aspirants to go to bed with the mindset that he is the preferred candidate of the President, as anything can happen within a matter of minutes.
The politician, who spoke to our correspondent on condition of anonymity, referred to what happened to the former governor Peter Odili, who had begun to parade himself as the would-be running mate to Umaru Yar’Adua, but the arrangement changed in a twinkle of an eye right at the venue of the Convention in 2007.
“Governor Peter Odili waited at the Eagle Square with the delegates from Rivers State, to hear the last word if anything could change. There was a lot of going forward and backwards; a lot of wheeling and dealing. It was a political coup as far as he was concerned. In every political gathering all over the world, there are intrigues; a lot of things happen. Nothing is sacrosanct until the primary is over. It is a game that the person that comes to smile at you now, the next moment, when he wants to vote changes his mind and drops his ballot for another person, and you are still thinking he has voted for you,” the politician said.
In PDP also, observers say that unless there is consensus before the primaries, it would be a fight to the finish.
Kingsley Aru, a political scientist, said that with the level of desperation that some of the aspirants on the PDP platform are going about their aspiration, it could be a bitter primary, except reason prevails towards the day of the exercise.
“I hear that there are talks going on among some aspirants on who would step down for whom? If that succeeds and the decide and resolve to work together as a party, PDP may have a chance of winning the Presidential election in 2023 because a lot of public sentiment is leaning towards them as a result of certain considerations,” Aru said.
