Professor Bell IHUA is the executive director, Africa Polling Institute (API), an independent, non-profit, non-partisan opinion research think-tank. He has led teams of researchers to consult for major domestic and international organisations, including the World Bank. He spoke to NOSA IGBINADOLOR on what should determine the voters’ choice as they go to the polling booths in 2023. Excerpts:
What is API’s understanding of the perception and attitude of Nigerians towards the 2023 general election?
From the findings of recent public opinion polls conducted by the Africa Polling Institute, I can say that the 2023 general election would be critical to determining the future direction of the country. As you know, the country is currently plagued with heightened insecurity, excruciating poverty, weak economy and massive unemployment, amongst others. These are the current realities that citizens can attest to. So, for Nigerians, the forthcoming election would be about who has what it takes to solve these challenges facing the country. Consequently, I can state categorically that Nigerians are eagerly looking forward to the next general election and hoping it would serve as a milestone to turn the curve in bringing the nation back on the path of growth, peaceful co-existence, progress and prosperity.
Does the data on past elections give us an idea of how Nigerians view the next general election and how they might vote?
Yes, past polls from API have shown that the 2023 General Election would be more about the candidates and less of political parties. If you look at the arrangement of our current political structure, you would see that there is no ideological difference distinguishing the leading political parties; besides politicians decamp from one party to another, so they are more or less the same. Our polls have shown that citizens are no longer bogged down on parties, but on who the parties would field as their candidates for the elections, especially the Presidential election. This is why parties need to be wise in selecting candidates with proven track record of leadership capacity and delivery of public services to the people. Enough of empty campaign promises. What have you done in the past that is verifiable? And how would that serve as a pointer to what you can deliver in the future? These should be the key issues.
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What in your opinion are the critical drivers that informed the way Nigerians voted in the past? Are those drivers likely to still inform how Nigerians would likely vote in 2023?
From the findings of our polls, Nigerians said they want a God-fearing, credible and competent President in 2023. What this tells us is that the critical drivers would be faith, character and integrity, as well as experience. Nigerians would want to assess what he or she has done in the past, does the individual fear God? Because if someone fears God, he or she would have mercy on the poor and look at introducing policies that would address issues of poverty, unemployment and insecurity. And does the person have the capacity to properly analyse the issues and take difficult decisions to change the situation, irrespective of whose ox is gored. It’s a tough job that requires serious minded and forthright people. I speak as a public opinion pollster to say that 2023 general election would be about candidates and not about political parties. Citizens would be looking out for candidates with proven experience, leadership capacity, integrity and the fear of God.
What about the role of ethnicity and religion in choosing candidates? Are they still dominant influencers?
Unfortunately, ethnicity and religion have come to stay in our polity. They would still continue to play a role in our politics. This is because politicians use them as tools to canvass for votes. Nonetheless, I believe the 2023 election would be about the candidates presented to the public by the political parties. The truth of the matter is that poverty in Kano is no different from poverty in Lagos or Port Harcourt. Same also, insecurity in Niger or Katsina is no different from insecurity in Owerri or Oyo. So, the issue boils down to who has what it takes to tackle these issues.
Is there any data out there to tell us who would likely win the 2023 presidential election?
We are pollsters, not magicians. The polls have to be conducted first before we can tell. We have not conducted any national poll of this nature yet. Besides, it is still too early to tell because the political parties are yet to field candidates. Perhaps, in a few months, if we have conducted some polls we might have an answer. But as you know, national polls are not cheap. They are expensive to conduct and to have a robust nationwide sample size that would enable us predict outcomes at the state level would cost quite a lot of resources.
