Due to the ageing population, the labour shortage in the Netherlands will continue for the time being. However, many African countries are struggling with the opposite problem. So take advantage of this, say Ewout Frankema and Michiel de Haas from Wageningen University.
The social consequences of the shortage in the Dutch labour market are enormous. Every sector is now trying to strengthen its position: wages are shooting up, and employment conditions are improving. Excellent, but this will not solve the increasing shortage of people. An upcoming recession will bring some relief, but the labour shortage is structural and requires a new, cross-border approach.
Underneath the economic downturn and the aftermath of the corona pandemic, a demographic landslide is steadily but inexorably doing its work. In the 1950s, there were about seven working Dutchmen for every over-65s. In the 1990s, there were still five; now, there are only three.
According to official demographic calculations, with a further increase in life expectancy, the number of AOW pensioners will rise from 3.1 million in 2020 to 4.1 million in 2050. Retirees like to go on holiday in their own country, to the hairdresser or have a drink in a bar. Moreover, ageing goes hand in hand with extra care. This leads not only to exploding healthcare costs but also to additional work. The figures don’t lie. If the policy remains unchanged, one in three working Dutch people will be needed in health care services in 2060. This is entirely unsustainable.
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The Netherlands needs a policy and needs to start executing it. The recently mooted suggestion to attract young people from the French banlieues is more laughable than serious. After all, almost all of Europe is experiencing an ageing population. The flow of Eastern European labour migrants is drying up. The shrinking wage gap with countries like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria is insufficient to attract enough labour migrants. What would motivate ‘underprivileged’ French youngsters to move over?
Guest workers
It makes much more sense to look at Ghana. Here, the Netherlands’ average income is less than 5%. Corrected for purchasing power, it is still less than 10 per cent. Labour shortage? Not a chance. The Ghanaian labour force is increasing explosively. For every person over 65, there are fourteen people in the labour force. Ghana is facing the opposite problem: a chronic lack of jobs. There is hardly any industry (yet), and the gas and oil growth generates extra income but very few jobs. Of course, the increasingly educated and well-informed Ghanaian youth are eager to migrate: more than 40 per cent of the participants in representative research indicate that they would like to leave the country. In Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda, the picture is similar.
So there is a demand for labour and sufficient supply. But politics, from Left to the right, abhors the idea: labour migration from developing countries, comparable to the ‘guest workers of the 1960s and 1970s. The Left predicts exploitation for the benefit of big business. The right is playing on strongly rooted xenophobic sentiments. Meanwhile, the front door remains locked, and there are only three routes for ‘non-Western’ migrants: study or work visas for the highly skilled, family reunification, or an attempt at an asylum. This means that the vast majority of potential labour migrants are turned away.
Who will come in if we unlock the house with a conscious and smart migration policy? Young, motivated, and hard-working people are often devoutly Christian, fluent in English, with good knowledge and a positive view of Western culture. The idea that such migration comes at the expense of local development is also outdated. Migrants send money to their families and develop skills that can be used upon their return to their home country. So there is a win-win scenario on the horizon.
Then there is implementation. Isn’t practice far too unmanageable? This is partly a question of mentality: those who want to can do much more. Selection criteria must be strict: migrants must demonstrate their relevant expertise and learn Dutch before crossing over. To this end, training centres are set up and financed by various private parties and governments. After selecting competent and ambitious migrants, a right of residence for five years is granted, directly linked to a job. Housing is a challenge, but simple but decent accommodation can be realised in housing containers where many Dutch students live happily.
Middle East
A radical idea? Not at all. This model has been around for a long time and is extremely popular. For example, in 2021, 85 thousand Ugandan women left their country for the Middle East to work in housekeeping jobs. Their number compares to the number of ‘boat people who annually dock in Southern Europe after first risking their lives. However, African migrants are widely exploited in the Middle East. Standard procedures include taking away passports, cutting off contact with the home front, seven-day work weeks, and even downright maltreatment. This is not only inhumane and unacceptable, but it is also unnecessary.
After all, why couldn’t we organise this more decently? The Netherlands was once a progressive pioneer in many policy areas. An ambitious approach to labour shortages through innovative migration policy could, at a stroke, elevate the Netherlands back to the status of ‘leading country’.
