The candidates consensus files: economy

Nigeria has long possessed the potential for economic prosperity, but unfortunately, the benefits of economic growth have not been widely distributed among its citizens.

Despite the current administration’s efforts to improve the economy over the past seven years, many Nigerians are still waiting to see tangible improvements in their standard of living.

As the 2023 presidential election approaches, issues such as currency scarcity, fuel crises, inflation, and high costs of living will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the electorate’s decision-making process.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, is a strong believer in, and has implemented a mix of the Neoclassical and Structuralism brand of development economics, which argues that market efficiency and competition are key drivers of economic growth and government intervention should be limited to correcting market failures, while emphasising the importance of structural factors, such as industrial policy, technology, and human capital, in promoting economic development.

Tinubu’s approach is exemplified by his time as governor of Lagos State, during which he grew the internally generated revenue from N14.6 billion to N83.02 billion at the time he left office in 2007 by partnering with private sector players, while strengthening government institutions.

One of the key areas of focus in his 2023 manifesto is to create bustling urban centres that will drive economic activity and growth, boosting industrial activities in Nigerian cities and towns, considering the over 50 percent of Nigerians who currently reside in urban centres.

The Peoples Democratic Party’s candidate, Waziri Atiku Abubakar, is a known proponent of a free market economy, driven by a strong leaning towards Neoclassical development economics, which advocates for government intervention in the economy to be limited to correcting market failures.

As vice president, he presided over one of Nigeria’s biggest privatisation exercises, and he has since expressed his intention to privatis the Nigerian National Petroleum Company as far back as 2019. Atiku believes in a private sector-driven economy that thrives on free trade, deregulation, market efficiency, and competition.

During his campaigns, especially within Northern Nigeria, Atiku has promised to open the borders to allow for free trade between Nigeria and her West African neighbours. As a former customs officer, he has a good understanding of the inner workings of cross-border trade and its potential to contribute to economic growth.

Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party proposes economic models that have been successfully deployed in countries such as China, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. These models incorporate the features of Human Development and Structuralism, focusing on human capital development, investment in education and healthcare, with a belief that a healthy and educated population with favourable fiscal policies will pull itself out of poverty.

Obi’s vision is to move Nigeria from consumption to production, as he has famously said, by creating an enabling environment for the proliferation of small and medium-scale businesses across Nigeria. He also plans to gradually remove fuel subsidies, despite his party’s socialist-leaning platform. As governor of Anambra State, he invested heavily in education, resulting in the state’s emergence as the best performing state in the West African Education Council examinations.

The economic consensus

All three candidates agree that the government’s role in the economy should be reduced, subsidies should be removed, and the private sector should play a greater role in the economy. The key difference is the extent to which they will go to achieve these objectives.

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For the Nigerian voter, this will not be the first time that they will be presented with beautiful promises and roadmaps to economic development but this will be the first time the voter will be faced with a cocktail of currency crises, fuel crises, forex crises and high inflation in the run up to the elections.

Regardless of the winner of the 2023 presidential election, the economic consensus is that there will be a paradigm shift in the way the federal government interacts or interferes with the economy, leading to long-term economic benefits. It can no longer be business as usual as traditional government revenue sources will no longer be sufficient to meet fiscal obligations.

Nigeria has the potential to be a great nation. With the right leadership, policies, and economic programmes, Nigeria can achieve the economic prosperity that has long eluded its citizens. As the country heads to the polls on February 25, 2023, voters must weigh the candidates’ economic visions and decide which approach is best suited to the country’s needs. The road to economic recovery will not be easy, but with the right leadership, it is possible to transform Nigeria’s economy and create a better future for all Nigerians.

Ikponmwosa is head of the Political Consulting Desk at VIISAUS, a leading data-driven politics and policy consultancy in Nigeria