The release of Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures brings a mix of optimism and skepticism. With crop production, trade, and real estate now crowned as the economy’s leading contributors, the exercise illuminates a shifting economic structure. Yet, it also prompts a deeper question: Does this rebasing signify real progress, or does it merely reframe old data without addressing the systemic challenges plaguing the economy?
Rebasing GDP and CPI is a routine statistical exercise recommended every five years by the United Nations Statistical Commission. Nigeria last undertook this process in 2014, dramatically elevating its GDP by 89 percent and earning the title of Africa’s largest economy. The current rebase, with 2019 as the new base year, incorporates emerging sectors such as the digital economy, modular refineries, and mining. The results, due for full release, aim to present a more accurate reflection of the nation’s economic dynamics.
“While the rebasing has shifted crude petroleum and natural gas out of the top three economic activities, it does little to obscure the continued dominance of oil revenues in government earnings and foreign exchange.”
While the rebasing has shifted crude petroleum and natural gas out of the top three economic activities, it does little to obscure the continued dominance of oil revenues in government earnings and foreign exchange. The symbolic rise of real estate to the third position signals a possible diversification. However, this does not negate the pressing need for substantial investment in value-added processing to make oil and gas a more resilient economic pillar.
Real estate’s ascendance as a top-three contributor reflects the growing demand for housing and commercial infrastructure driven by urbanisation. Yet, the sector’s trajectory exposes a darker side: a speculative bubble that has exacerbated Nigeria’s housing deficit, leaving millions in substandard conditions. Without a robust framework to ensure equitable development, the sector risks reinforcing economic disparities rather than alleviating them.
The inclusion of the digital economy in the rebasing exercise acknowledges Nigeria’s nascent progress in technology and innovation. Yet, while startups proliferate, the broader ecosystem is hampered by unreliable infrastructure and a stark digital divide. For many Nigerians, the promise of digital transformation remains elusive, with millions lacking access to affordable internet and electricity—key prerequisites for meaningful participation.
Read also: Here are 10 highest contributing sectors to Nigeria’s GDP in Q3
Trade remains the dominant economic activity in Nigeria, a testament to the entrepreneurial spirit that defines much of the informal economy. However, its continued prominence often masks systemic inefficiencies, including poor infrastructure, fragmented supply chains, and a regulatory environment that stifles growth. Without addressing these challenges, the sector risks being a chronic underperformer rather than a driver of sustainable development.
For the average Nigerian, the rebasing exercise may appear as an academic abstraction disconnected from the lived reality of rising inflation, high unemployment, and stagnating wages. The National Bureau of Statistics’ decision to exclude public administration from the top seven contributors further underscores the shrinking role of the state in economic activity. This shift highlights governance inefficiencies at a time when strong public institutions are desperately needed to facilitate private-sector growth.
Moses Uwaniko, technical assistant to the Statistician General, emphasised that rebasing provides critical data to inform policy decisions. But Nigeria’s track record reveals a troubling gap between data-driven insights and actionable strategies. The rebasing exercise, while commendable, risks becoming an intellectual endeavour if it is not leveraged to address structural deficiencies.
To capitalise on this recalibration, Nigeria must invest in inclusive growth by implementing policies that democratise access and benefits in the real estate and technology sectors, ensuring equitable opportunities for all Nigerians. The country must also diversify export revenue by reducing its reliance on crude oil and fostering value-added industries in agriculture, manufacturing, and technology. Combating inflation is critical, requiring efforts to stabilise the naira and address supply chain inefficiencies to restore purchasing power. Furthermore, strengthening human capital is essential, as the digital economy’s potential can only be unlocked if citizens are equipped with the skills needed to thrive in a modern, tech-driven world.
Nigeria’s leadership faces a pivotal moment. The rebased figures illuminate a pathway for economic recalibration, but translating these insights into tangible progress requires political will and strategic foresight. Transparency, accountability, and a commitment to equitable development must underpin policymaking.
The rebasing exercise serves as a crucial tool for recalibrating Nigeria’s economic narrative, providing a more accurate picture of its economic structure and performance. However, this exercise will remain merely a cosmetic adjustment unless it translates into tangible improvements in the lives of its citizens through the implementation of evidence-based policies.
The government must ensure that this rebasing exercise transcends a mere statistical update and becomes a catalyst for genuine economic transformation. This transformation must be characterised by inclusive growth that benefits all segments of society, sustainable development that safeguards the environment and future generations, and a focus on policies that truly reflect the aspirations of the Nigerian people.
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