Nigeria’s cost-of-living crisis: Policies that must bridge survival and prosperity

This Christmas, Omotola Cecilia Oloyede, a food vendor in Lagos, finds herself preparing fewer meals than usual at her bustling shop in Boundary Market. For years, the holiday season brought her brisk business as customers ordered steaming plates of jollof rice and chicken to celebrate. This year, however, the story is different. With food prices doubling and customers tightening their belts, her once-thriving business now struggles to make ends meet.

“People just aren’t buying like they used to,” Omotola laments. “I used to prepare two large pots of rice daily during Christmas week, but now I’m barely selling enough to finish one pot. Even my family had to skip buying chicken this year because it’s too expensive.”

Omotola’s struggle reflects the harsh realities faced by millions of Nigerians as the country battles a relentless cost-of-living crisis. With inflation at a 28-year high and food prices soaring, families are being forced to prioritise basic survival over cherished traditions. Once-vibrant Lagos streets that were filled with festive joy now feel subdued, as the financial strain weighs heavily on residents.

Nigerians now find themselves poorer than they were a year ago. The World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update reports that at least 129 million people, or 64.5 percent of the population, live below the national poverty line. Food inflation has surged to 39.9 percent, driving unprecedented desperation and hunger. Stampedes at food donation events this December claimed the lives of over 60 people, underscoring the gravity of the crisis.

The roots of the crisis

A confluence of factors has pushed Nigerians into this dire strait. The removal of the petrol subsidy, though fiscally sound, has unleashed ripple effects across the economy, compounding inflationary pressures. The naira’s continued depreciation has further eroded purchasing power, while climate change disrupts food production, exacerbating shortages. Insecurity in key agricultural regions prevents farmers from meeting demand, leaving food prices to soar unchecked.

Consider this: a 50kg bag of rice now costs N120,000, up 85 percent from last December. A 10 kg carton of frozen chicken has risen to N55,000, a 72 percent increase. Even onions—an essential ingredient in Nigerian kitchens—have seen a 133 percent price hike, with a 100 kg bag now selling for N280,000. These staggering figures highlight the systemic failures that have left citizens unable to afford the basics.

Policy gaps: Learning from missed opportunities

The government’s attempt to address fiscal imbalances through subsidy removal and monetary reforms was well-intentioned but poorly executed. Promised palliatives, including cash transfers and subsidies for essential goods, have either failed to materialise or been grossly insufficient.

Moreover, structural inefficiencies, from insecurity to inadequate infrastructure, remain unaddressed. For instance, the lack of investment in agricultural technology and rural security perpetuates low productivity. Meanwhile, the absence of effective price controls leaves consumers at the mercy of market forces.

The economic toll of these gaps is stark. Families are abandoning traditions like sharing food with neighbours or exchanging gifts, not out of choice but necessity. “I used to cook and share food with my neighbours every Christmas,” says Abimbola Roberts, a mother of three. “This year, I can’t afford it because of the high cost of food items.”

A path forward: From desperation to prosperity
While the present crisis is daunting, it presents an opportunity for policymakers to pivot toward inclusive and sustainable reforms. The following measures are essential:

Expand social safety nets: The government must urgently roll out targeted cash transfers, food aid, and subsidies for essential goods. Transparency in the distribution process is critical to ensure these resources reach the most vulnerable.
Boost agricultural productivity: Investing in irrigation, mechanisation, and crop storage facilities can reduce post-harvest losses and stabilise food prices. Strengthening security in farming regions is equally crucial to encourage production.
Stabilise the naira: The Central Bank of Nigeria must implement policies to curb speculative currency trading and stabilise the exchange rate. Restoring confidence in the naira is vital for reducing import costs and curbing inflation.
Support small businesses: Providing low-interest loans and tax incentives to SMEs can help them weather the economic storm. These businesses form the backbone of Nigeria’s economy and are key to job creation.

Invest in infrastructure: From rural roads to enhance market access to reliable electricity for food storage, addressing infrastructural deficits will reduce costs and improve productivity.

Engage stakeholders: Collaboration with private-sector players, community leaders, and international organisations can yield innovative solutions and mobilise resources to tackle the crisis.

Looking ahead: A new hope for Nigerians

Nigeria’s economic future will be determined by the government’s response—or lack thereof—as its citizens navigate this difficult holiday season. The current hardship must serve as a wake-up call for policymakers to rethink their approach, balancing fiscal discipline with compassion.

This is not just a question of economics; it is about restoring dignity to millions of lives. Nigerians like Omotola Cecilia Oloyede and Abimbola Roberts deserve more than survival—they deserve policies that empower them to thrive.

Christmas, even in the face of hardship, remains a season of hope. It is a time to reflect on the resilience of the Nigerian spirit and the potential for collective action to rebuild the nation’s future. The birth of Christ, a symbol of love, peace, and redemption, reminds us of the enduring power of human compassion and the possibility of overcoming even the most daunting challenges. By embracing reforms that prioritise the well-being of its people, such as investing in education, healthcare, and infrastructure, Nigeria can move from crisis to recovery. By fostering an environment of inclusivity and justice, we can ensure that future Christmases are celebrated with joy, abundance, and unity, reflecting the true spirit of the season.

Taiwo Omolaja holds a Higher Diploma in Marketing from the Lagos State University of Science and Technology. She is the convener of “Call Beyond the Pulpit”, a faith-based gathering aimed at inspiring spiritual growth and community engagement. Taiwo writes from Lagos.