On Saturday the 25th of February, Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation goes to polls. This election is a defining moment for Nigeria. It is occurring at a time when Nigeria is at a tipping point. Christians and more particularly, Catholics, are being slaughtered in the North and South-West regions, women and children are facing the brunt of the cost-of-living crisis with no assurance of food security, many young men are not gainfully employed, and businesses can’t operate due to high insecurity and unconventional monetary policies.
Even before now, the country has had its own fair share of development challenges – poor health care, worsening schooling outcomes, dilapidated transport infrastructure and extreme weather events. These issues have been caused by an interplay of factors including bad governance, and have been exacerbated by recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The state of the nation has led to a migration crisis with young people emigrating abroad in droves for better economic opportunities. Put together, these factors make the 2023 elections very critical as the country is at crossroads.
Before delving further, here are a few facts about Nigeria and the elections. First, Nigeria has one of the youngest population structures globally, as two out of every five Nigerians are below 14 (World Bank, World Development Indicators). Second, the country is very diverse as there are up to 371 ethnic groups, the largest of which are Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo. Third, the leading presidential candidates in the 2023 elections are from the three large ethnic groups: Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (Hausa), Former Governor of Lagos State Bola Ahmed Tinubu (Yoruba), and Former Governor of Anambra State Peter Obi (Igbo).
Because of the diverse nature of the country and scars from the civil war, voting patterns have been known to be guided by tribal sentiments. We saw this in 2015 when President Goodluck Jonathan, a Southerner, was ousted out of office on grounds of non-performance; whereas, this present administration has performed worse but still won elections in 2019 majorly because President Muhammadu Buhari was able to galvanize Northern votes. However, with the myriad of challenges the country is facing and the geopolitical tensions the world over, one would expect that competence rather than ethnic groupings will be the deciding factor in the 2023 elections.
Contrarily, it appears that some of our Fathers (and maybe even Mothers) are bent on making voting decisions along tribal lines. Earlier this week, I came across a video where Pastor Paul Adefarasin spoke about the possible outcome of the elections in a parable using the tribes of Israel and Judah. The history of Israel and Judah is well known to Christians: God has a covenant relationship with both tribes and chose them as his own.
Even when both tribes go against God’s precepts, he rebukes them but very quickly receives them with open arms once they repent and turn towards him. My interpretation of Pastor Adefarasin’s comments is that Judah is the Yoruba tribe (while Israel is the Hausa tribe); and Saul is Presidential Aspirant Bola Ahmed Tinubu while David is current Vice President Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, both of whom are Yorubas.
This is only my interpretation and I hope I am wrong about this because the implications are damning if I am right. Pastor Adefarasin is therefore suggesting that his congregation should vote for Bola Ahmed Tinubu despite his well-known health challenges.
Again, it is not surprising because historically, when tire meets the road at elections, we become divided along tribal lines and begin to think of ourselves as the enemies rather than our slave masters (who in some cases are Blacks and other minorities).
It is important to note that other dimensions of disparities come to play in Nigeria including gender, age, and socio-economic status but during elections, tribal discriminations are most apparent.
It is disappointing that in a country with 371 ethnic groups, there are people who still hold on to age-long belief systems that only the two dominant ethnic groups – Hausa and Yoruba – are born to rule.
Worse still, they use youths as pawns to achieve their agenda. We saw how the youths were galvanized to Occupy Nigeria before the 2015 elections (on grounds of fuel subsidy removal) but were rebuked for taking initiative to mobilize to end police brutality under the EndSars campaign.
Rather than working towards ending school strikes, programmes like the Big Brother Nigeria are used as a way to dull the minds of young people. Sports betting, internet fraud and a drug epidemic is killing young people and reducing their potential.
Nevertheless, it has been made clear that the minds of the youths are not a switch that can be turned off or on at will. Power is now in the hands of every individual – rich and poor, Southern and Northern, young and old, man and woman! The capacity to rule does not lie only within the top-two dominant ethnic groups (Hausa and Yoruba) or even the top-three dominant ethnic groups (including Igbo). The EndSars campaign demonstrated that we have all become leaders in our own right – we are all enlightened and can think for ourselves.
Hausas and Yorubas may (with a big emphasis) have been the most enlightened ethnic groups when Nigeria gained independence 62 years ago but the situation has evolved and we should be thankful that it has. Nigerians from all ethnic groups are demonstrating excellence.
Only last year, a South Eastern medical doctor in the diaspora contributed US$1 million to his university alumni. In 2021, a young man from the South-South, Damini Ogulu AKA Burna Boy, won the Grammys for Best Global Music Album. At the last Olympics in 2022, the quartet of Joy Udo-Gabriel, Favour Ofili, Rosemary Chukwuma and Grace Nwokocha, all Southerners, brought us the gold medal for the 4*100 meter relay.
When talent meets hard work, every Nigerian – rich and poor, Southern and Northern, young and old, man and woman – can lead exemplary lives.
On Saturday, there is no APC, PDP, Labour Party or NNPP (these are the leading political parties in Nigeria); there is only Nigeria and the enemies of Nigeria. If we are honest with ourselves, there is only one credible candidate. Not being a kleptomaniac should not be the minimum criteria required for a President, but in this case, it is. On top of that, the right candidate has shown an example worthy of emulation in governance, business, and in his personal life.
I am speaking up because our ancestors (both the ones that stayed back on the continent and those who became slaves in foreign lands) will turn in their graves to see that their descendants couldn’t get the basic task of electing the obvious best candidate right. And so, because of this failure we may have no other option than to become teachers, nurses, health care workers, being offered the bare minimum wage, to those that seek to continue enslaving us; those that are bent on treating us less than how they treat themselves.
This is not to denigrate any profession – we are all equal in the eyes of God but I used these examples because of the video where an older Caucasian woman spat on her health care worker and also because some countries are threatening to replace their striking teachers with Africans who are ready to work at any wage rate.
In conclusion, Nigerians are incredibly smart people. But haven’t you ever wondered how the same Nigerians that outwit the world in other countries, have the worst country to come to. It is because tribalism and other biases underpins our most critical decisions. The leaders we’ve been electing are not accidents and the leader we will elect on Saturday will certainly not be an accident; it will be the leader we truly desire and deserve.
To the international community who are watching closely, support us by using your soft power to ensure that the lives of the most vulnerable among us are not sacrificed because of the ambitions of the ruling class. But please do not interfere in this process. Let the world watch as we outwit ourselves to select the candidate that will serve the people and bring long-term progress and prosperity.
PS: There is a reason why I don’t mention Pastor Adefarasin’s church in this article – because the man is separate from the church; and the body of Christ, no matter how flawed it may be, is part of God’s tool kit in bringing salvation to the world.
