Learning the art of predictions as a tool for business (4)

The average human forecaster is no better than a monkey throwing darts. Evolutionarily, we have developed a simple three-dial system for making decision: Do I see a huge dangerous predator? Yes, run. Maybe, stay alert/run. No, relax. Whenever we do venture into predictions, it’s with a vague vocabulary filled with rubbery words: may, soon, highly likely, unlikely, The statement “Greece may default in the near future” really doesn’t mean anything: may is completely uncertain, and the near future unspecific.

The good judgment project is and was an immense study funded and organised by the IARPA, an intelligence version of DARPA established to drastically improve the quality of predictions produced by the intelligence community (IC). The study examined the predictions of thousands of “ordinary” people in response to specific questions about world events in the future months. The results of the study yielded a group known as “superforecasters”, those with an extraordinary ability to predict the future.

Superforecasting is an easy journey through the probabilistic and experimental traps that impinge our ability to anticipate the future. Sensational title aside, the book is far less focused on cultivating superhuman ability than on understanding limits – a refreshing departure from the impossible promises that usually fester in the margins between pop science and self-help.

When I saw Philip Tetlock, writer of “Expert Political Judgment” (which is one of my all-time favorite books), had found fruitful forecasting techniques and had worked with Dan Gardner (author of “Future Babble”, which is I also really like), I had high expectations. I think that the collaboration led to a book that was much clearer and straightforward, but at the cost of the nuance that makes “Expert Political Judgment” an absolute triumph. 

One of the best books I have read in a while. This book does a great job outlining ways to improve decision making by making forecasting into a science. It does a good job presenting this information in the form of stories and quips that keep you interested and coming back for more. I believe it will be very easy to apply what you have learned in the book to everyday life to become a better person.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a wonderful read on a fascinating subject which we all do to some degree every single day of our lives – forecasting. Tetlock and Gardner paint the picture of why we struggle at predicting uncertain things and illustrate several ways we can improve our abilities to improve in this area. For example, if you are working in a basketball, football or any sports organisation, one of the core elements of your job is forecasting how players may perform in a different offensive system, defensive system, with different teams and in several scenarios.

“Now you can predict the lottery numbers.” No pressure.

This book is not that type of book, but it is still worth the read to those of us who feel the need to quantify everything. The book documents the inaccuracy of TV pundits and, through a website in which anyone can make quantifiable forecasts, tracks the accuracy of forecasters on key economic and world issues. Through a scoring system, the super forecasters are identified and studied.

Quotes from Superforecasting

“For scientists, not knowing is exciting. It’s an opportunity to discover; the more that is unknown, the greater the opportunity.” 

“If you don’t get this elementary, but mildly unnatural, mathematics of elementary probability into your repertoire, then you go through a long life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.” 

 

You can contact me for business advisory services and training – send me a message via WhatsApp or SMS..

 

– Nwaodu Lawrence Chukwuemeka (Ideas Exchange Consulting).

[email protected]  (07066375847).