Leading in uncertainty: The CFO’s role in crisis and calm

In uncertain times, occasioned by economic shocks, currency volatility, regulatory policy rigmarole, or geopolitical tensions, leadership isn’t about having all the answers—it’s about asking the right questions, making smart bets, and holding the nerve when others can’t. For CFOs, this isn’t a detour from their job. It is the job.

The COVID-19 years were an eye-opening explainer of how things we never planned for could change everything as we knew it. Major crises sometimes just show up without visible signals. And for the most part, we can’t tell what has gone wrong or the scale thereof until after the fact. The CFOs who are the financial stewards in companies have the unique benefit of insights to tell the scale of impact that such crises may have caused. This is because they are at the heart of managing risk, driving strategy, and anchoring stability in the organisation. For CFOs in Nigeria and other volatile economies, this role has become more intensified in recent years.

With currency volatility, rising inflation, FX illiquidity, and subsidy removals (first on fuel and now likely on electricity tariffs), uncertainty is no longer a one-off episode but the default operating environment for businesses. In such times as these, boards and CEOs should turn to their CFOs not just for financial reports but for foresight, steadiness, and strategic leadership.

Uncertainty today takes multiple layers and shapes. At the macro level, we face external shocks provoked by the US slowly disengaging from its global big brother role, as seen in the reduction of USAID support for developing countries and the imposition of country-specific trade tariffs. The shocks could also be attributed to the global supply chain crises, crude oil price swings, geopolitical tensions in the Baltic and the Middle East regions, amongst others. At the local level, the Nigerian business environment adds regulatory flux, infrastructure deficits, and sudden fiscal policy pivots. And within companies, digital disruption, rising costs of operations and acute top talent shortages occasioned by Japa syndrome are evolving faster than what sound governance frameworks can fix.

Read also: Why more Nigerian CFOs should engage in public policy

Borrowing McKinsey’s lingo to define my context here, businesses now operate in a “state of permacrisis”, which Mike Spence and Mohamed El-Erian, in their seminal book, describe as a “pretty complicated and disorienting environment” where volatility is constant and traditional long-range planning models may hardly work. In other words, we operate in a business environment that is volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. In short, we operate in a VUCA world. And in this situation, coordination across key touchpoints and priorities in our organisations has become a critical success factor. As the executive with visibility across finance, operations, procurement, HR, and strategy, a CFO is in a unique position to coordinate responses across departments and functions.

Given this background, there are a few behaviours or approaches for leading in times of uncertainties, and I will share just three ideas here. First, we must embrace forward and scenario thinking and not just one-off budgeting. What do I mean? As the CFO , you can consider less of deterministic planning (i.e., “we expect X”) and more of probabilistic thinking (that is, “if X, Y, or Z happens, we will do A, B, or C”) in your financial modelling. You can also have quarterly forecasts of expected full-year numbers as opposed to just judging current year performance against some budget numbers, which underlying assumptions may have been overtaken by events.

Another point is that in times of extreme uncertainties, waiting for perfect data may often lead to paralysis. You need to master the art of decisive agility, that is, balancing rapid decisions with structured judgement. You don’t have to wait to have all things figured out before taking critical decisions. The bottom line really is that one must remain agile and resilient in times of crisis or uncertainties because agility during shocks tends to guarantee higher stakeholder trust and team morale.

The final point to note is that when fear rises in times of crisis, people don’t just want answers — they want honesty. You must become the chief explainer, translating complex situations into clear and self-explanatory data and communications. Regular town halls, Q&A sessions, all-hands sessions, and board updates are some of the ways to provide clear and transparent communications that boost confidence. Transparent communication from senior leaders reduces organisational anxiety and increases trust even when outcomes are uncertain.

Leadership in uncertainty isn’t a bonus skill. It’s the job. For Nigerian CFOs especially, it’s not about predicting the next government policy shift but preparing the business to survive and thrive no matter what comes. It’s about building muscle for ambiguity and trust for turbulence.

Sikiru Salami FCA is a Nigerian-based CFO, finance strategist, and business leader with finance leadership experience spanning multiple sectors. He can be contacted via [email protected].