If Peter Obi loses: What next?

Few weeks to the election, most polls “all things being equal” have projected Peter Obi to be the winner of the 2023 Presidential election. While it’s exciting to the ears of the Obedients, I don’t know how the opposition is taking it, outwardly they’ve denounced it to be “a mere social media frenzy” but no one knows affirmatively if behind the scene, they feel threatened.

If Peter Obi’s projected win comes through, it will really upend the political narrative in the country, as such I really pray and hope he wins, not only because I believe he will proffer better leadership for the country but it will quiet Obi’s naysayers and humble various quarters who feel they are political deities.

While many Obedients are holding firmly to the polls, I’m admiring it from a distance. Generally, I’m not swayed by polls, with all due respect to the pollsters and the effort they’ve put in, polls are really just polls. I think they’re in the business to make headlines, election polling is an uneven and high-risk pursuit.

Few months ago, in the US midterm elections, most polls polled there will be a red wave with a wide margin, in Congress and Senate, while there was no red wave, the margin in the US congress is so slim that the Republicans have to walk on eggshell. Same thing happened in 2016, polls predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton but Trump became the 45th President.

No doubt polls have had their wins but the most prudent thing from years of experience is to remain sceptical. More sceptical should be Peter Obi who has been projected winner, despite this projection, he has to rally his base to vote en-masse, Obedients should not be manipulated to think that Peter Obi has already won, hence no need to vote, that will be a false sense of déjà vu.

They need to know that the predictions of the polls will only fructify if they vote, the more the merrier and as Stears projected, a high turnout favours Peter Obi being elected. On the flip side, it could be to his advantage, with “the bandwagon effect” or “wisdom of crowds” voters who think he will win the election may end up voting for him.

While being optimistic, I like many others, have thought, about what will happen if Peter Obi loses. I know many Obedients don’t want to have such a thought or imagine such a situation. But it must be had, having this thought is not an act of cowardice or lack of faith, it’s merely a realistic thought, if politicians contesting for political offices have both victory and concession speeches, who are we not to think of eventualities?

Already I know many that have planned to leave the country if Obi losses, some even think the insecurity and the disturbances in the East will also return with greater force.

My thought is more on the implication to our democracy. Peter Obi’s entrance into the Presidential race under the Labour party has left an indelible mark. He got many Nigerians really interested in the politics of the country and many registered and collected their PVCs. He shattered voter apathy and impressed on people that “politics matter” and it shouldn’t be left in the hands of misfits.

He generally gives people hope, as seen by his closeness to his supporters. He generally raised the temperature in the country, and from being a non-threat he has become a top contender. He mainstreamed the concept of fact-checking through his “go and verity” mantra. He has dismantled the infamous 2 party system; he has raised the politics in Nigeria with his civility and emotional intelligence in responding to uncouth statements from the opposition.

Thanks to Peter Obi, Nigeria has transcended from a politics of theatrics, where Politicians pretend to be for the masses, by meeting ordinary Nigerians on the street and trying to work with them, -we remember the likes of Rotimi Amaechi who showed his hair-plaiting skills and Aisha Buhari who with affluent dressing, fried yam and Akara at the roadside- to politics of ideas.

With his simplicity of words and clarity of thought, Peter Obi has communicated very complex micro and macro issues to the ordinary Nigerian, better than PhD holders and Professors. Unlike other politicians who use youths for thuggery and unsavoury errands.

Obi acknowledged the importance of the youths, with his campaigns at various universities and youth town halls. The Q&A in those sessions left many edified and conscious. Truly his “Town Hall was Different from Bala Blu, Blu, Bulaba”

Importantly, he has also brought character and integrity to be a front-burner issue, though not a Saint or Messiah, he has shown Nigerians that politics can be clean and one can serve without being corrupt, he has disrupted the concept of choosing the lesser evil or lesser corrupt. Truly he has raised the bar and set a standard.

Peter Obi’s win is extremely important and desirable, I really hope he wins; indeed, I know people who may have crises if he loses, but more importantly, a Tinubu-Shettima win is not good for the country for several reasons. The same-faith ticket will further divide the country and lead to more marginalisation.

Read also: Peter Obi expresses optimism over victory at poll

While Peter Obi’s success should be our concern, I beg that that should not only be our concern. We should be concerned about how the millions of Nigerians, whose political consciousness he has awoken will react if he loses. Will they give up on Nigeria and think that nothing good can come out of our electoral process? Will they ever care again? Will they return to their apathy mode? Will it discourage people of like mind from taking a shot at occupying political office and serving?

Being emotional and retracting to our shells, should not be the solution, the next step should be to see the data and analyse it. We have to see how he performed in the election, his performance will not only say a lot about our country but his future chances, for example, if he finishes ahead of any of those from the major party, that is a real game changer we should not take for granted. We will also have to see his performance in the North and if they’re accepting him.

If the data is positive, then Peter Obi may have a good shot at having another bite at the cheery. No doubt the result is important, but it is as important as the means, while we celebrate the result, we should also celebrate and laud the efforts put together.

Whatever happens on the 25th, we should not forget how and when Peter Obi started; how he joined a “structureless” party and gradually gave it structure and international acclaim. We should not forget the numerous obstacles he had to go through to get to where he is, neither should be forget the limited funds his party has for the campaign nor the legal and illegal head start of the other contestants.

Whatever happens, Peter Obi will go down as a politician Nigeria did not see coming, he is more than “Andrew liver Salt”, he is salt whose presence and absence is noteworthy.

As we match to cast our votes, we’re optimistic that, in hindsight, we will say that the polls were quite accurate.
No matter the outcome, we move with a positive worldview in which shadows can fall without darkening everything.

Nwachukwu writes from Lagos