The world’s food crisis is already severe, as prices are rapidly increasing and protectionism is spreading. But there is a good chance that some governments can stop it from getting worse if they take timely actions rather than panic. As this article is presented for publication, many nations have taken steps to curb exports of crops ranging from wheat and sugar to cooking oils. If one can recall what happened in 2008 when there was a global economic recession, the food crisis provides critical lessons as it underscores how government-imposed trade shocks can supercharge commodity prices.
On June 7, 2022, this column presented an article titled “Rising Food Prices Require Timely Government Intervention.” That article has been modified to reflect current trends. Let’s start by stating that there is a complex interaction among industry, society, and research institutions for the nation to be self-sufficient in its food supply. Policy-makers understand this philosophy.
Before going further, we may need to ask: Where are the agricultural extension officers from the Ministry of Agriculture at national and sub-national levels? I was reliably informed that these officers serve as intermediaries between farmers and agricultural research institutes. They operate as facilitators and communicators, helping farmers in their decision-making and ensuring that appropriate knowledge is implemented to obtain the best results for sustainable food production.
“We know that climate change, insecurity in some parts of the country, inflation, and rising food prices are some of the drivers of food insecurity.”
Besides timely intervention by all tiers of government, a nation of over 200 million people will need a grand national strategy that will be implemented over a period of, say, 30 years. We know that climate change, insecurity in some parts of the country, inflation, and rising food prices are some of the drivers of food insecurity.
Nigeria has a vast expanse of arable land, but food prices are increasing. Statistical analysis indicates that over the years, about 60 percent of crops, fruits, and vegetables harvested in Nigeria have been wasted due to poor handling, packaging, and weak local preservation methods. And above all, numerous taxes, low-quality fertiliser, poor agricultural infrastructure, and rising transportation costs are also part of the problems. This is quite evident from the rise in food prices coupled with the mountains of rotten mangoes, oranges, pawpaw, plantains, bananas, pineapples, and vegetables seen in most of our markets and motor parks. That is why we need a grand national strategy to tackle the food crisis in the country.
Read also: Farms under fire: Nigeria’s food security on the brink
The grand strategy for food security
I strongly believe that our national interests must be stated devoid of ambiguity in terms of our survival and well-being in the international environment. If our national interest is to provide food for over 200 million people, then we need to have a grand strategy. The grand strategy for food security must focus all the powers of the nation on surplus food production, bearing in mind our national interests and objectives. In formulating the grand strategy for food security, consideration must be given to our limited resources in order to determine the goals we need to achieve in the short, medium, and long terms and how we can achieve the goals. There is considerable uncertainty globally and much room for improvement in the chosen strategies. We must constantly assess our grand strategy and adjust accordingly based on geopolitical realities.
The key point is how we can employ all instruments of national power—diplomacy, information, military, economy, technology, and population, among others—to pursue our national objective. There is competition among nations globally, and we need to articulate our mode of survival so that we are not left behind in the struggle for food sufficiency. Nigeria is blessed with agricultural experts and technocrats who can help us map out a grand strategy for achieving food security. We need to have a multidisciplinary approach to sustainable food production.
We want food security
Studies have shown clearly that any nation that cannot feed itself is vulnerable to external manipulation and pressure. As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) defends our local currency with billions of U.S. dollars, the apex bank’s loan to farmers was reported to have hit N1.0 trillion amid a rising default rate in 2022. This is the total amount reportedly disbursed under the Anchor Borrowers Programme of the CBN as of the end of April 2022. The disbursements were to 4.52 million smallholder farmers, cultivating 21 commodities across the country, according to reports. But we have to import rice.
Yet there is food inflation. Some food items are getting scarce and expensive to buy. In fact, the prices of some food items are rising on a weekly basis. How are we going to attain food sufficiency? Critics are asking. What else does the government need to do in order to reduce the prices of food items? These questions will be addressed by articulating a grand national strategy on food security. We have seen that there is a mismatch between the efforts of the government under the Anchor Borrower’s Programme and the quantity and quality of food available in the market.
Today, our economy is down but not out, the poverty net is expanding, our agricultural output is poor, our industry capacity utilisation is critically below par, and the political terrain is very slippery. These negatives are expected. Why? Over the years, most economic programmes articulated at the highest level of government and put forward to solve these problems systematically and ecologically have failed. It is because implementation strategies were poorly executed. It’s good to import food from abroad so that Nigerians can get food to eat. But for how long will that be? Will the imported food be available and affordable for the poor people in society? We hope that the importation of food will not continue perpetually, like fuel importation.
In 2022, bread and rice recorded 42 percent and 48 percent price hikes in 5 years, according to an NBS report. The rise in food prices is taking place as “inflation is projected to be double-digit in the medium term given structural issues impacting the cost of doing business as well as high food distribution costs.” However, some experts predicted that the current steady decline in inflation would be sustained, as they project a rate drop to 13 percent in 2022 and 10 percent by 2024. Food inflation has been rising since 2022. Currently, food inflation is 40.87 percent year-on-year.
Global efforts towards food security
By 2030, all countries will render a performance report on Sustainable Development Goal 2 of the United Nations, which aims at ending hunger, achieving food security, improving nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture. But a food catastrophe is looming globally, as The Economist reflected in one of its reports in 2022 that “the number of people who can’t get enough to eat has risen by over 400 million.” There is already a clarion call by the United Nations (UN) for nations to take the necessary action to avert food crises globally. In response to the NBS report and perhaps the UN call, the federal government is making moves to tackle the rising food prices. As world food problems kept piling up, India had to restrict its wheat exports.
It is on record that India’s green revolution transformed the country from a hungry nation to a net exporter of food. India, Malaysia, Mexico, and others are countries Nigeria can take a cue from concerning her drive towards food security. These countries have reaped enormous benefits from their well-directed agricultural research institutes, whose works have produced improved seeds, food preservation processes, and new strains of cereals that have stabilised their food security status.
Indeed, the chief architect of the Mexican green revolution on wheat production was Norman Ernest Borlaug, an American agronomist who received a Nobel Prize in 1972. He succeeded in doubling, within a period of 10 years, Mexico’s wheat production. India equally reaps benefits from the green revolution idea. Rice and wheat production were multiplied several times. It is on record that India, where over one million people died of starvation in 1943, ultimately became a net exporter of cereal in 1980.
Food security experts are of the view that nations should “be careful whatever they do on rice imports, exports, and controls.” Globally, policymakers in developed economies such as the USA and China are grappling with elevated inflation and slowing growth, while consumers face a fast-rising cost of living as hunger spreads. Most countries are worried about the impact of high fertiliser costs on yields, and drought has threatened crop production.
As food security is not likely to improve in the short and medium term, if countries in Southeast Asia hold back exports, the “real disaster” may likely be in Africa, which has increasingly depended on food imports. Africa cannot afford a food crisis. The continent is currently suffering from disruptions to wheat in the Black Sea region and the Middle East. If rice is in abundance in our country, it could help ease the pressure on wheat. It was suggested that consumers may wish to switch easily from wheat to rice, such as in noodles and cakes. Can we diversify our eating habits and build up a huge buffer stockpile in a bid to prevent price shocks?
As a nation, we must match consumption with production. We cannot run away from production and export. This article is to subtly remind those in authority that food scarcity and inflation are a few of the problems requiring quick fixes. So, they should do all within their means to face the challenges head-on. We must make concerted efforts to produce food locally in a sustainable manner so that we can be relevant internationally. Thank you.
MA Johnson, Rear Admiral (Rtd)
