CBN’s IOC FX policy ends a crisis-era lifeline for the naira

On March 25, 2026, the Central Bank of Nigeria did something quiet with loud implications.

It issued a circular scrapping the cash pooling requirement for international oil companies such as Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Eni (Agip), granting them full, unrestricted access to their foreign exchange earnings, thereby reducing dollar supply.

If you are like me, who sits and tracks daily currency flows and cross-border payment risks, then this must have raised a few questions in your mind, and you would be right. What does this actually mean for the naira, and how should you be thinking about FX exposure right now?

What the CBN actually did

A bit of context matters here. Before 2024, IOCs paid their FX earnings 100% directly to their parent companies offshore through subsidiary pools, without Nigeria’s FX market benefiting from their export proceeds at all.

Then in early 2024, the CBN introduced the cash pooling framework as part of a broader push to shore up naira liquidity. It forced IOCs to keep 50% of their proceeds in Nigeria for 90 days, essentially using oil companies as a temporary FX buffer.

Between 2023 and 2024, during the FX volatility crisis, the policy was made to serve as a tourniquet to the bleeding Naira as the CBN reforms progressively aligned policy with operational realities in the upstream sector. The naira has stabilized; as such, the CBN no longer needs to rely on IOC proceeds as a crutch.

In other words, the 2024 policy was a tourniquet. The 2026 policy removes it because the wound has largely healed.

Has the Naira wound healed enough?

Here is where I want to be direct, because a lot of the commentary around this has been either too optimistic or too dismissive.

While the move may not instantly boost dollar supply, it’s set to improve cash-flow management and reduce financial risk for oil producers. The policy does not inject new dollars into Nigeria but rather inspires investors’ trust.

IOCs can now move earnings to parent companies offshore without a holding period, which is better for their operation and investors’ perception of Nigeria’s FX market, enough to increase our foreign capital flow.

The risk scenario? If crude prices drop materially below the $64.85 budget benchmark, or if oil production in Nigeria stays volatile, the fundamentals that make this policy safe to implement could shift.

As long as oil remains traded above $64 per barrel, this remains a safe bet.

The confidence and perception shift

Nigeria is intentionally moving from a “difficult FX environment” to a “reforming, investable FX environment.” That transition has a real effect on how counterparties, trade partners, and payment corridors are priced and structured.

Foreign capital inflows reached $20.98 billion in the first 10 months of 2025, a 70 percent increase over total inflows for 2024 and a 428 percent surge compared to the $3.9 billion recorded in 2023.

Nigeria’s external reserves crossed the $46 billion mark for the first time in about eight years. These numbers didn’t happen because of any single policy. They happened because the CBN showed, repeatedly, that it was willing to make uncomfortable calls and follow through on them.

This policy is one of such calls.

What this means for African businesses trading across borders

If you are an African business, an importer buying from Nigeria, an exporter getting paid in naira, or a company managing multi-currency treasury across the continent, here’s what I’d be watching:

Naira pricing is likely to stay within a narrower range than it was 24 months ago. But “narrower range” still means volatility, especially around oil price shocks, election cycles, or global dollar strength.

Businesses that depend on predictable dollar availability need banking relationships and payment partners that can move quickly now more than ever.

This could signal more IOC investment in deepwater, which means production growth has a credible medium-term path.

How to position your business in a reforming FX environment

The mistake most businesses make is treating FX policy news as binary: good news means relax, bad news means freeze. The reality is more nuanced, and the right response to a reforming environment is to get sharper, not to get comfortable.

Here is what sharp looks like in practice:

Stop treating cross-border payments as an afterthought: The cost of moving money across African borders, for trade and settlement, is still one of the highest in the world. Plan accordingly.

Build FX timing intelligence into your treasury function: Businesses that understand when to convert, when to hold, and what indicators to watch will consistently outperform those that don’t.

Work with payment partners that understand the African FX landscape: This goes beyond a general point but is a major operational decision that can provide a competitive advantage.

At Bluebulb, this is what my team and I spend our days on. We move money across African borders for businesses that can’t afford to lose margin to FX friction, delayed settlements, or opaque pricing.

The naira story is getting better, but that is not the same as saying the work is done. Contact us today; let us simplify your cross-border payments.

Solomon Izevbekhai is the group head, Treasury, Bluebulb.