Many analysts expressed serious doubt when President Muhammadu Buhari announced two years ago that his government would lift 100 million people out of poverty in 10 years. In my opinion piece titled ‘Can Buhari walk the talk on poverty reduction’, I explained then why his promise was entirely unrealistic. Then as now, the number of poor Nigerians has been steadily rising, and the conditions for a radical reversal of this trend, notably sufficient and sustained economic growth, are simply not there.
A sleight of hands
To commemorate this year’s June 12 Democracy Day, President Buhari told Nigerians in an interview on Arise TV that his government’s poverty reduction efforts were in fact on track. His specific claim that extant policies have lifted ten million people out of poverty since June 2019 rings hollow. The numbers suggest a different reality. First, the World Bank estimates that in 2020, inflation alone could have pushed seven million Nigerians into poverty. Second, based on the International Futures system (IFs), an integrated modelling platform housed at the University of Denver, extreme poverty could have increased by up to 11 million people; from roughly 87 million in 2019 to over 98 million in 2021.
To be sure, the above numbers point to worsening poverty in Nigeria and align with recent survey data from the Afrobarometer. The latter records significantly more Nigerians experiencing ‘lived poverty’ than a few years ago (56 per cent of respondents in 2020 versus 38 per cent in 2017). The Lived Poverty Index measures the frequency with which people experience shortages of essential necessities, such as food or medical care.
Read also: Buhari cannot continue to evade the question of restructuring
Playing loose with the figures
Some Buhari supporters argue that he met an economy on the cusp of recession in 2015. Whilst this is true, several of the government’s own actions and inactions have made a bad situation worse. Nigeria is ill-served by the president’s growing proclivity to sidestep inconvenient facts on rising poverty in Nigeria. He and his advisers will be well guided to engage honestly with the numbers as part of a broader embrace of evidence-based policymaking.
Also, Nigeria’s current poverty crisis isn’t just the result of the Covid-19 pandemic. To a large extent, Covid-19 merely amplified existing vulnerabilities and has accelerated an unfolding crisis. In other words, its impact is directly proportional to the numerous strategy and policy failures that successive Nigerian administrations are directly responsible for.
A more herculean task
Nigeria’s poverty reduction battle has now become harder, not easier. Prospects for better living conditions were meagre before Covid-19. The country was off-track on key Sustainable Development Goals, such as no poverty, zero hunger or access to clean water and improved sanitation. With serious economic scarring from Covid-19, most people will face even greater hardship in the coming years and perhaps decades.
IFs forecasts since the pandemic show that over the next 15 years, close to 19 million additional Nigerians could fall into extreme poverty. This is about two-third of Ghana’s entire population and roughly twice Benin Republic’s. In total, Nigeria would have 117 million extremely poor people by 2036. Covid-19 will further undermine much needed progress in critical areas of human development, including infant, child and maternal mortality, access to clean water and sanitation as well as education. Women and girls stand to suffer the most.
It’s the economy, stupid!
There is no silver bullet for successful and lasting poverty reduction. However, without economic growth little can be done, and Nigeria has not had enough of it. In 2020, the country’s economy shrank by 1.8 per cent. For 2021, the World Bank expects a rebound with only 1.8 per cent expansion. But growth pre-Covid19 (1.9 per cent and 2.2. per cent in 2018 and 2019 respectively) was hardly enough. During their respective poverty-reducing decades, both China and India grew at an average annual rate of 11.5 and 8.4 per cent respectively. And even Indonesia’s economy expanded at an average rate of 3.5 per cent between 1998 and 2008, which allowed the country to free over 80 million people from the most abject forms of poverty.Pivoting onto a more sustainable demographic trajectory is imperative to give Nigeria a better chance at reducing poverty. Unchanged population growth dynamics will inevitably make things worse. Nigeria simply must invest adequately in human capital and create a more productive workforce. Also, more inclusive growth and tackling inequality must become a priority.
Nigeria’s youthful population can still be the country’s saving grace. Without the necessary social investments in youth however, this demography becomes both a burden and a growing risk. Denialism on the part of the president will make the necessary planning and adjustments impossible. Facing up to the increasingly dire situation will give Nigeria a better chance to reset itself and liberate millions from otherwise avoidable hunger, misery and poverty.
Dr Bello-Schünemann is Senior Associate, Good Governance Africa (GGA-Nigeria). She holds a PhD in International Relations from the Universidad Complutense, Madrid and has held senior research positions at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria and FRIDE in Madrid. Her expertise includes integrated forecasting and trend analysis.
