Nigerian banks pan-African calculus: Empire or earnings?

For over a decade, Nigeria’s Tier-1 lenders have crisscrossed the continent, planting corporate flags from Accra to Nairobi. Critics dismissed this pan-African expansion as expensive vanity projects and testamentary monuments to continental empire-building rather than cold, hard shareholder value. However, a stark divergence in 2025 earnings results show that for a select group, the continental bet is now delivering tangible financial gains while for others, the “empire” remains a drag on returns.

For instance, the United Bank for Africa (UBA) provides the most dramatic evidence of the pivot. As growth slowed in Nigeria, its Francophone African subsidiaries generated 80 per cent of the group’s 2025 net profit, an eightfold spike since 2020. Similarly, Zenith Bank’s foreign operations saw pre-tax profit surge 85 per cent to N331.7 billion, contributing over a quarter of group earnings, with its Ghana and UK corridorspowering the rise. Similarly, FirstBank’s international business now generates 22 per cent of group revenue as the valuation of its Ghanaian outpost has jumped tenfold following hyperinflation exit.

Accretion not Delivered Universally

Not every foray has delivered immediate shareholder value. Some smaller or newer operations in challenging jurisdictions continue to post losses or thin margins, echoing Fitch’s earlier warnings on execution and xcredit risks in weaker African economies.

For instance, Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) paintsa more ambiguous picture. While its West African subsidiaries in Ghana and Ivory Coast are profitable, its UK operation cremated about N98 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, with the East African units struggling for scale. Meanwhile, Access Holdings posted 16 per cent earnings rise but 19 per cent earnings per share fall as heavy foreign currency translation losses hit its African portfolio.

Hek Verdict and Agenda for Next Phase

Available data favour a tilt toward financial gains rather than pure empire-building, with foreign operations providing genuine diversification and growth amidst persisting challenges inNigeria. But returns remain patchy.

The next phase of ex-Nigeria operations cannot rely on expansion in itself. Thus, the regional units must shift from capital-hungry acquisition to organic consolidation to justify their existence. The lenders need to integrate their technology stacks to lower high cost-to-income ratios and leverage cross-border trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Additionally, banks must prioritise rigorous portfolio reviews to know when to exit or restructure chronically underperforming units and deeper integration of digital platforms for cost efficiency and cross-border retail/corporate services. Capital allocation must favour only markets with potential to deliver at least 40 per cent return on investment. Only disciplined execution will convert continental presence into enduring shareholder wealth.