Could PDP have survived defeat if the 5 governors did not pull out?

Like a dream, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), a political organisation that has ruled Nigeria since 1999 appears to be crumbling like a pack of cards. Analysts strongly believe that it was the party that was responsible for its current sorry state.

While some observers are of the view that the walkout on August 31, 2013 of seven governors at the Eagle Square venue of the PDP special convention laid the party’s foundation for the ultimate defeat, some others say the cause could be located in the many faulty steps that were taken by the party.

Recall that following the discontent that greeted the emergence of the Adamawa-born Bamanga Tukur as national chairman of the party and the lack of cooperation from those who were forced to stand down their ambition to contest the position with him, and also many state governors who were also not comfortable with Tukur’s style of leadership which polarized the party, forcing the aggrieved governors to stop funding the party, a special convention of the party was convened at the instance of President Jonathan.

The convention was aimed to reconcile aggrieved members. Tukur was not the choice of most governors in PDP and was thought to be President Jonathan’s Man Friday.

Seven governors stormed out of the venue of the convention and headed to the Yar’Adua Centre, a stone throw from the Eagle Square. The governors were led out by Atiku Abubakar, former vice president; Abubakar Baraje, former PDP chairman and Olagunsoye Oyinlola, a former national secretary of the party and former governor of Osun State. Some other eminent party men followed them.

The governors who staged the walkout were

Rabiu Kwakwanso (Kano), Abdulfatah Ahmed (Kwara), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto), Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu (Niger).

Five out of the seven governors were to form a group known as the G-5, while Babangida Aliyu (Niger) and Sule Lamido (Jigawa) decided to remain in the PDP.

Indeed, the PDP has known many crises since its formation in 1998. But it has managed to weather the storm. Its ability to come back strong each time it experienced internal squabbles was taken for granted which may have emboldened some of its staunch members to brag about its staying power.

Since 1998, the umbrella party has seen a good number of national leaders who rose and waned. Most of them left ignominiously. With 11 national chairmen (some of them in acting capacity) in its 17-year history, it is no surprise that the ruling party has not been able to many its successes.

Some critics blame the party for not being able to nip in the bud the crisis that led to the defection of the governors.

However, some analysts say that even if the five governors had remained in the PDP, they may not have prevented the defeat of the party.

Those who hug this opinion point to the voting patterns in the 2011 and 2015 presidential elections.

They explained that in all the five states, the effects of the defection of the governors are not so much seen. For instance, with Governor Chibuike Amaechi defecting to the APC, the PDP still won landslide in the state. Also, in Kano State, in 2011, Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) got nearly 2million votes against PDP’s less than 500,000 votes. In Sokoto State, in the 2011 presidential election, the combined votes of CPC and that of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) was close to 600,000 against PDP’s 309,051. The pattern was almost the same.   

Traditionally, Rivers is a PDP state which accounted for the reason the Amaechi-factor could not deliver it for the APC.

Moreover, with the emergence of Buhari from the core north, as the APC standard bearer, it was expected that the voting pattern would be in his favour, as the majority of the north appeared to have lost faith in the Jonathan administration, particularly over the Boko Haram insurgency and the Chibok Girls’ ordeals.

On the other hand, the fielding of Buhari as the Presidential candidate was of tremendous advantage to the APC because Nigerians agreed that the country has been badly run since 1999 and is beset with dishonest leadership. At the point when Nigerians went to the polls, Jonathan and his government had become so unpopular that many citizens just needed a break. An analyst said: “Very importantly, the most fundamental reasons that made PDP to ‘win’ in 2011 are today no longer there. In 2011, Buhari was all alone by himself, with no key power bloc, no governor, no senator, no legislator, no funding, etc. supporting his candidacy. Today all these are present in his support.

“Conversely, in 2011, President Jonathan’s election was supported by key power blocs like Presidents Obasanjo, Babangida, General TY Danjuma, Bola Tinubu, Bukola Saraki, Governor Ameachi, etc. Today they are all absent. In 2011, President Jonathan’s capacity, ability, honesty and competence or lack of them was unknown. Most people, including me, wanted to give him a trial.

“Today, his incapacity, inability, dishonesty and incompetence are legendary, and so no one in their right senses would want to keep him in office. The Northern Minorities in particular, who voted him based on sentiments, are today embarrassed by his total incompetence as he did not prove himself a good ambassador of minorities.”

Zebulon Agomuo