2015 General Elections: Familiar battle foes but who takes the two-thirds majority stake

Against the backdrop of the concluded presidential primaries of the two major parties in the country- the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), all is now set for the big clash on February 14, 2015.

Analysts say that the fight may be tougher this time around than in 2011 when the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan, defeated Muhammadu Buhari, who contested on the platform of the defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). They also argue that while PDP controlled more states at that time, it has lost some of them.

It will be the fourth time Buhari, a retired army general, will be throwing his hat into the ring for the presidential contest. The last three times – 2003, 2007 and 2011, he had lost to former president Olusegun Obasanjo, late former president Umaru Musa Yar’adua and the incumbent President Jonathan, respectively. Following the serial loss, Buhari had in 2011 declared never to enter the presidential contest in the future.

But following the fusion of his defunct party Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) with two other political parties- Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) and All Nigeria People Party (ANPP), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), to form what is now seen as a formidable opposition in the country- APC, Buhari, once again, decided to take another plunge.

Analysts believe that the formation of the APC, which now has a wider geographical spread and controlling 14 out of the 36 states of the federation, may have boosted Buhari’s confidence to re-enter the presidential race. The states currently under the control of APC are Lagos, Kano, Ogun, Oyo, Sokoto, Rivers, Edo, Osun, Imo, Kwara, Borno, Yobe, Nasarawa and Zamfara.

The major arguments as Nigeria approaches the decisive year are the extent to which the huge population of the largest states of Kano and Lagos could enhance APC’s chances; if the PDP is capable of garnering the mandatory two-thirds of votes cast and the required spread of aout 25 states to clinch victory, and the extent to which the perceived disgruntlement against the state of affairs in the country can alter voting pattern next time around.

The thinking, according to analysts, is that APC could leverage on population advantage in states under its control compared to the PDP. For example, APC controls Nigeria’s two most populous states of Lagos and Kano, which population put together is almost equal that of Bayelsa, Ebonyi, Imo, Taraba, Gombe, Akwa Ibom and Abia combined going by the figures of the 2006 census conducted by the National Population Commission (NPC).

According to the NPC’s census, Kano was said to have a population of 9,401,288, and Lagos, 9,113,605. The two are strong APC states. This is evident by the fact that since 1999, the opposition party has maintained a firm grip on Lagos, which also informed the choice of the state as the host of last week’s national convention which produced Buhari as its flag bearer for 2015 presidential poll.

Analysts also say that a proof of the strength of the APC in Kano is votes garnered by its governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso who placed second in the party’s primary, flooring Atiku Abubakar, who was seen as a major contender in the race. “APC has a strong root in Kano; there is no doubt about that. It has been proven beyond doubts in the party’s last week’s presidential primary where Kwankwaso came second against all expectations, shifting Atiku Abubakar a major contestant to the third position,” said an analyst who craved anonymous.

The PDP controlled states of Bayelsa, Ebonyi, Taraba, Gombe, Abia, Imo and Akwa Ibom for example have a population of 1,704,515; 2,176,947; 2,294,800; 2,365,040; 2,845,380; 3,927,563; and 3,902,051 respectively. The analysts using the few states as they stand population-wise, to mirror a larger picture of the political game in terms of numbers, say APC could leverage on this strength.

But they are also of the strong view that issue-based campaign, ideologies and showing how the myriad economic problems plaguing the Nigerian states could be solved, by the PDP and APC candidates, will also swing the votes to either of the gladiators.

Analysts also pointed out that in 2011, President Jonathan enjoyed the sympathy of many Nigerians which he appears to have lost. Even at that, he won that presidential election against Buhari scoring 58.89percent of the total votes cast against Buhari’s 31.89 percent.

At that time,  Buhari contested solely on the CPC platform, a not too popular political party and polled over 12 million votes being 31.89 percent of all the total vote cast, beating the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) – 5.41percent, All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) – 2.40percent, and other political parties – 1.32percent.

“In 2011, the margin between Jonathan and Buhari was 27percent (58.89percent – 31.89percent). Remember that was when Jonathan was a household name in the country. That was when he enjoyed more popularity across all regions and caught the hearts of the people because of his ill-treatment by the ‘cabals’ who did not want his emergence as President after President Yar’Adua’s demise and coupled with his ‘I had no shoes story’ with which he stole the hearts of Nigerians. Nigerians were sympathetic and compassionate, hence, their votes and massive support for him,”

a pundit, who asked not to be named, said.

“A lot has changed since then. Many of President Jonathan’s supporters have defected to the APC and more Nigerians are now politically aware than they were in 2011 and many are disgruntled about the President’s style of leadership,” the pundit further observed.

But what is left to be seen is if the votes of the disgruntled Nigerians who previously voted President Jonathan in 2011 will be capable of making up this 27percent difference in 2015.

Zebulon Agomuo and JOSHUA BASSEY