Chief executives of top firms in Nigeria have re-echoed their optimism for 2025, affirming that the reforms of the government are beginning to stabilise the economy that’s almost at the brink of collapse some 18 months ago.
Top CEOs at the executive roundtable on Nigeria’s 2025 budget and economic outlook organised by PwC in partnership with BusinessDay on Thursday said they are confident the economy will bounce back after the shocks and shifts seen last year.
Segun Alebiosu, chief executive officer and managing director of First Bank, said he is full of optimism, noting that prices would moderate, food inflation would decline and FX pressures would ease on improved transparency.
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“I actually believe that 2025 will be a far better year than 2024 in many ways, and that is based on the information I have and understanding. Inflation will definitely come down. The base effect is one,” Alebiosu said. “Food inflation itself will come down as people invest more in agriculture.”
The First Bank CEO hinges the moderation of food inflation on renewed interest in farming, spurred by the various reforms implemented in mid-2023 that escalated a cost-of-living crisis in Africa’s most populous nation.
The policies stoked inflation and worsened living conditions. It equally left many Nigerians so poor that they struggled to eat three meals a day.
Almost two-thirds of households report being unable to eat “healthy, nutritious or preferred foods” in the past months, according to a report by the Abuja-based National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) — up almost 80 percent compared with five years ago.
But the narrative is expected to change this year as there is more incentive in agriculture.
“Any year that you have a food crisis, the following year there’s always so much. People go to farms on their own to kill hunger. So, when they do that, two years later, there will be too much food, they will come back again and then another crisis will start,” he said.
Alebiosu projects that prices will gradually decline and the easing cycle may begin by the end of the second quarter
“As inflation goes down, I don’t expect MPR to remain at 27.5 percent. Things will start going down. I see that starts happening from Q2. In my own theory, I believe that as from Q2, once the harvest is out, you know harvest is out in July, August, you see food prices start going down in August,” he said.
Describing the challenges faced by businesses last year, Gabriel Ogbechie, MD/CEO of Rainoil, said 2024 was a year of ‘bloodbath’ as some firms were more hit by the reforms than others.
“The manufacturing sector, the oil and gas, anybody with FX exposure, lost so much money. Some of the biggest manufacturing companies that we all know got really exposed. Even their shareholders went into negative territory,” Ogbechie said.
He highlighted the fluctuation of the exchange rate as one of the hindrances to economic growth, noting that “nobody can plan in a situation like that.”
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But the oil and gas chief believes “the worst days are behind us,” stressing that the recent stability means corporates can plan with no panic of disruption on their balance sheets.
“I am very optimistic that 2025 will be a very good year. Let’s put 2024 and 2023 behind us. Let’s bring optimism back into the room,” Ogbechie said.
“You can’t get it wrong in this economy once we get our policies right. And I think we are on the right path as of today,” he added.
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