Trump's policies to impact Nigeria's economy negatively - FG

…says PMS import drops by 30 million litres in eight months

…as NSA meets community to end pipeline vandalism

Th Federal Government says the United States President, Donald Trump’s policies on international trade and crude oil market has the potential to negatively impact Nigeria’s economy, especially the 2025 budget.

Recall that President Bola Tinubu had this year signed a budget of about N54.99 trillion with the Government expecting revenue to jump from ₦18.32 trillion to ₦36.35 trillion, from N18.32 trillion in 2024, a 123.19% increase, mainly through better tax collection and foreign investments.

This was based on a crude oil benchmark projection of $75 per barrel, now threatened by falling crude oil price in the international market.

Farouk Ahmed, Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority NMDPRA, while speaking with State House Journalists on Tuesday, said ” Trump’s policy inconsistencies will impact the nation’s income negatively”

Ahmed speaking on falling crude oil prices in the international market, however, expressed the confidence that Nigeria will put mechanisms in place to check such negative impacts

Ahmed noted that the crude oil industry generally “is a bit dynamic, in the sense that the pricing, the demand, supply of crude oil and petroleum products is no static. It all depends on the demand, region, areas, productions, whether it is gas or crude oil and derivatives.”

He stated that the “crude oil and petrol products market continues to have a downward trajectory because of these inconsistencies and policies of of the government of United States”, adding that “the key aspect of it is the aspiration of the American President to ensure that the crude oil price comes down to maybe below $50 a barrel and that’s why he encourages more exploration in his country.

“But recently, like we all know, the the global oil market, like the global economy has been a bit volatile, in sense of the new American government’s policy of tariffing, not only targeted at China, but the whole countries across the world.

“Most importantly, what is even destabilising the market is inconsistencies in the way President Trump also sends his policies; he move today, tomorrow he reverses.

“So it’s been difficult to predict what the next step will be. So for investors and traders in, not only oil and gas industry, but in general economy of the world, moving left and right, to the extent that some of them are actually doing like a daily straight, that means you do your trading today, you close by end of today, because you never know what tomorrow’s policy will drive the market into”.

Ahmed, while also speaking on other factors that are likely to negatively impact on Nigeria’s revenue under the 2025 budget, noted that the security threats in the nation’s oil producing region would lead to further revenue fall unless it is immediately tackled.

“We are aware that the National Security Adviser NSA, recently held meetings with some leaders of the oil producing communities and security operatives to check security threats in the region, which we hope will help to reduce the problems” he said.

Recall that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC, had recently noted that Nigeria’s crude output dropped to 1.465 million barrels per day (bpd), as against the 1.5m barrels approved for the country.

President Bola Tinubu had projected oil production for 2025 at 2.1m barrels per day to drive the 2025 budget revenue of N36.3 trillion.

The drop in oil production was also corroborated by Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) corroborated the lower figure, reporting a crude production of 1.465 million bpd, while total crude and condensate output averaged 1.671 million bpd.

He further explained: “Obviously, we see a downward trajectory, like I said earlier, in terms of products pricing and crude oil pricing. So we are happy, of course, as consumers of the derivatives of pricing that the price is coming low.

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“But we look at globally as a nation, it’s not good for our economy, because our revenue inflow is also impacted. If the crude oil price like what happened previous week, Fridays, where they dropped in one day from about $74 $73 a barrel to 60. You can see that in terms of our production of crude oil, our revenue is impacted severely.

“So you can look at the revenue inflow into the country were compounded with the problem of vandalism and illegal bunkering and the low protection. Because recently, we just had a report from OPEC that Nigerian protection has come down to about 1.4 million barrels a day. And then, if we lose the price to by $10, you can see the negative impact to our economy, to our national reserves, as well as across the strength of our naira.

“But again, when you look at the products market, we are happy to say, Oh, the price is coming down.

“So this volatility will continue, because as recent as yesterday, when President Trump again exempted some sectors from tariff, particularly to China, like in terms of vehicular tariffing, You saw the market again, started to go up. So this is how it will continue to show. Just to give you a general perspective of the oil industry.”
Speaking on local refining capacity, Ahmed stated that the nation’s refineries have not been able to meet the local demands estimated at about 50 million liters per day.”

He revealed that the Government had approved refining licenses to about 83 companies with a combined total refining capacity of 1.124,500 barrels Dangote Oil Refinery Company (DORC)

He disclosed that 8 refineries had been issued license to operate LTO, 30 refineries with license to construct LTC and 40 refineries with license to establish LTE.

Ahmed, while also reeling out Nigeria’s Imports of premium motor spirit also known as petrol, said it plummeted from 44.6 million litres a day in August 2024 to 14.7 ML by 13 April 2025—a fall of roughly 30 ML, or 67%.

He also hinted that local supply rose 670% within that period.

“After contributing virtually nothing in August, local plants delivered 26.2 ML/day in early April, a jump from the 3.4 ML recorded in September, the first month with measurable output”.

He credited the surge to the phased restart of the Port Harcourt Refining Company in late November and to incremental volumes from modular refineries.

Despite the progress, combined supply crossed the government’s 50 ML/day consumption benchmark only twice in the eight-month window—November (56 ML) and February (52.3 ML). In March it slipped just below target at 51.5 ML, and in the first half of April, it remained short at 40.9 ML.

This marks a significant jump from just 3.4 million litres recorded in September – the first month with measurable output.”

He noted that local supply rose by a remarkable 670% over the period under review, driven primarily by the resumption of operations at the Port Harcourt refinery and increased activity among modular refineries.

Despite the improvement, Ahmed pointed out that Nigeria’s total daily PMS supply surpassed the government’s benchmark consumption target of 50 million litres only twice in the past eight months—56 million litres in November 2024 and 52.3 million litres in February 2025.

“In March, supply slightly dipped below the target at 51.5 million litres per day, and in the first half of April, it further dropped to 40.9 million litres,” he added.

Ahmed also emphasised that the NMDPRA only issues import licenses based on actual supply needs, noting that the Authority remains committed to balancing domestic output with strategic imports to maintain market stability.

The significant drop in petrol imports is seen as a critical step toward reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign fuel, strengthening energy security, and conserving scarce foreign exchange.