As xenophobic tensions intensify in South Africa ahead of the 30 June deadline, many Nigerians face an impossible choice: either to remain in fear or return to a homeland where rebuilding life may be just as difficult.
Ogbonnaya Chukwuka, a Nigerian entrepreneur who owns a pest control business in South Africa, has lived in the country since April 2014, yet he notes that he is still considered a migrant. For him, the approaching ultimatum issued by anti-immigration groups is more than another political flashpoint; it has become a question of survival.
Chukwuka decided against travelling to the Free State for work, choosing to prioritise his personal safety. He told BusinessDay that many immigrants are avoiding unnecessary travel due to the unpredictability of where the next attack could happen. Like hundreds of Nigerians who have spent years building businesses and families in South Africa, Chukwuka emphasises that leaving is not a simple option, noting that reintegrating into Nigeria and earning a living presents a clean-slate dilemma.
Hostility grows as the ultimatum nears
His dilemma reflects a wider crisis confronting Nigerians caught between rising anti-immigrant hostility in South Africa and the uncertainty of returning to an economy already struggling with unemployment and inflation. The latest wave of anti-migrant mobilisation has spread across several South African provinces, with citizen-led groups demanding that foreigners leave the country by 30 June.
Although organisers publicly insist they are targeting undocumented migrants, activists and immigrants interviewed by BusinessDay say attacks increasingly affect documented immigrants, small business owners, and even South African citizens mistaken for foreigners because of the language they speak.
Richard Pithouse, a research fellow at the Global Centre for Advanced Studies, said the atmosphere on the ground is considerably worse than reflected in media reports. Pithouse noted that approximately 10,000 desperate people are sheltering in refugee camps after being driven from their homes and having their businesses appropriated.
The political drivers of anti-immigrant sentiment
Pithouse argued that migrants have become convenient scapegoats for South Africa’s deep economic crisis rather than its cause. He stated that immigrants, who make up only about 4 to 5 percent of the population, cannot logically be held responsible for mass unemployment, especially since most work in the informal economy and create jobs.
Analysts say the current mobilisation differs from previous waves of xenophobic violence because it has become increasingly intertwined with electoral politics ahead of South Africa’s local government elections later this year. Political actors have weaponised anti-migrant sentiment to channel public frustration over unemployment, poverty, and inequality.
Thapelo Mohapi, the general secretary of Abahlali baseMjondolo, said the poorest migrants are being used as scapegoats in a broader political struggle, shifting focus away from structural inequality. S’bu Zikode, the president of the shack dwellers’ movement Abahlali baseMjondolo, added that the movement has expanded through sustained mobilisation on social media and public demonstrations as politicians struggle to explain difficult economic conditions.
Data refutes anti-migrant narratives
Available data paints a more nuanced picture than many anti-migrant narratives suggest. According to the Statistics South Africa census, international migrants account for roughly 4.1 percent of the country’s population. Furthermore, research cited by the World Bank found that each employed migrant generates approximately two jobs for South Africans through business activity, predominantly within informal sectors such as retail, construction, and personal services.
A recent policy paper compiled by Rebecca Walker, an independent researcher, argues that South Africa’s economic and governance challenges long predate current migration patterns. Walker points instead to corruption, weak public institutions, energy shortages, and structural inequality as the principal drivers of unemployment and poor service delivery. The report concludes that blaming migrants risks diverting attention from the country’s deeper economic structural problems.
Diplomatic intervention and regional evacuation efforts
The growing tensions have prompted an increasingly coordinated diplomatic response across Africa. Nigeria has begun evacuating willing citizens, although more than 700 Nigerians reportedly remain stranded after funding delays slowed additional evacuation flights.
Ghana has formally asked the African Union to investigate the situation, describing the attacks as a serious threat to African solidarity, while Kenya, Malawi, Lesotho, and Zimbabwe have issued safety advisories to their citizens living in South Africa. The African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights condemned the attacks, describing them as “grave violations” of the rights to equality, dignity, and security guaranteed under the African Charter.
Cyril Ramaphosa, the President of South Africa, has repeatedly rejected suggestions that the state is xenophobic, insisting that South Africa remains a welcoming country. While acknowledging concerns over undocumented migration, Ramaphosa warned citizens against vigilantism and promised action against groups exploiting immigration concerns for political gain. Critics, however, argue that official statements have not been matched by decisive enforcement against vigilante networks on the ground.
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