The 10 most fragile African countries

Across Africa, while many countries have made notable progress, others continue to face significant challenges that hinder their development and stability. These nations struggle with limited resources, ineffective governance, and the consequences of global economic shifts, which threaten the well-being of their populations.

The 2023 Fragile States Index (FSI), published by The Fund for Peace (FFP), highlights the most fragile African countries. The index ranks states based on their vulnerability to conflict and societal collapse. The higher a country’s score, the more fragile it is. The FSI measures fragility by assessing factors such as governance, economic stability, security, and the rule of law.

The Fragile States Index provides a comprehensive view of state stability, taking into account a range of conflict risk indicators. These indicators are divided into three categories: pre-conflict, active conflict, and post-conflict. They cover areas such as the security apparatus, economic decline, human rights violations, factionalised elites, demographic pressures, and external intervention.

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By using these indicators, the index offers an in-depth analysis of each country’s internal situation, helping to predict potential risks and vulnerabilities. In addition, the FSI highlights the role of global actors, including foreign governments and organisations, that may intervene or impact the fragile state in various ways.

According to the Fund for Peace, here are the 10 most fragile nations in Africa

1. Somalia — Index score: 111.9

Somalia continues to face significant instability due to ongoing conflicts with militant groups, particularly Al-Shabaab. The lack of a centralised government has also hindered efforts to establish order and development.

2. South Sudan — Index score: 108.5

South Sudan gained independence in 2011, but it has since struggled with civil war and political conflict. The violence between government forces and opposition groups has led to a humanitarian crisis, displacing millions and causing severe food shortages.

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3. Democratic Republic of the Congo — Index score: 107.2

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has faced decades of violent conflict, especially in its eastern regions, where multiple armed groups continue to operate. The DRC’s vast natural resources have often been a source of exploitation, fuelling violence rather than contributing to national development.

4. Sudan — Index score: 106.2

Sudan has a long history of political instability, most recently marked by the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir in 2019. The transitional government has struggled to implement reforms, and there have been ongoing protests and clashes between different groups.

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5. Central African Republic — Index score: 105.7

The Central African Republic (CAR) has been embroiled in a civil war since 2012, with various rebel groups fighting for control of the country. Despite the presence of international peacekeepers, violence persists, and the state’s authority is weak in many regions.

6. Chad — Index score: 104.6

Chad has faced political instability for years, compounded by the presence of militant groups in the Sahel region. In 2021, the sudden death of long-time President Idriss Déby led to further uncertainty and tensions.

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7. Ethiopia — Index score: 100.4

Ethiopia, once seen as a model for African development, has faced significant challenges in recent years, particularly with the Tigray conflict that began in 2020. The war in northern Ethiopia has resulted in widespread suffering, displacement, and a humanitarian crisis.

8. Mali — Index score: 99.5

Mali has struggled with insurgencies and terrorism, particularly in the northern regions, since 2012. The Malian military’s involvement in these conflicts, along with a series of coups, has further destabilised the nation.

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9. Guinea — Index score: 98.5

Guinea has faced political instability in recent years, including a coup in 2021 that ousted President Alpha Condé. Despite its rich mineral resources, Guinea’s governance issues, human rights concerns, and political tensions have contributed to its fragile state.

10. Nigeria — Index score: 98.0

Nigeria faces a variety of challenges, including insurgency, particularly from Boko Haram in the northeast, and rising violence from bandits in the northwest. Despite being a major oil producer, Nigeria has struggled with corruption, governance issues, and economic inequality.