The rising cost of a healthy diet (CoHD) in Nigeria is raising concerns, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) latest report indicates a 47.44 percent increase in the past seven months.
The report showed the daily cost per adult went from N858 in January 2024 to N1,265 in July 2024.
While economic experts say the surge will impact consumer spending, reduce profitability for producers, and strain government revenues, medical experts say low income families may be forced to reduce their consumption of vital nutrients.
The spike in the cost of healthy diet, according to experts, is expected to disproportionately impact low-income households, who are already spending a significant percent of their income on food.
Key drivers behind this increase, according to the NBS, include rising prices of vegetables, legumes, nuts, seeds, and starchy staples.
The cost of these foods across regions, showed that the Southwest zone recorded the highest average cost at N1,581 per day, with the Northwest zone the lowest at N956 per day.
Economists warn that these developments could exacerbate economic inequality and deepen the financial challenges faced by both households and the broader economy.
While the CoHD surged by nearly 50 percent in seven months, Nigeria’s general inflation rate stood at 33.40 percent in July 2024, having only recently declined for the first time in 19 months. Similarly, food inflation, responsible for more than half of the headline inflation, slowed to 39.53 percent in the same period.
The faster rise in CoHD suggests that maintaining a nutritious diet is becoming increasingly difficult, even as broader inflationary pressures begin to ease.
Economic implications
Paul Alaje, chief economist at SPM Professionals, noted that the rising cost of healthy food would worsen poverty, reduce productivity, and negatively impact overall economic growth.
“As the cost of quality food or healthy food continues to increase, it’s going to have significant implications on the standard of living. Food is a basic need, and when people can no longer afford it, it directly affects their quality of life.
“The first people this will affect are those in the middle class and low-income areas. Over 133 million Nigerians are already extremely poor, and this is not even a recent figure. As prices continue to rise, the number of people falling into poverty is likely to increase.
“When people consume less due to the high cost of healthy food, the value of the money they have reduces. What they could previously spend on other things, such as entertainment or even healthcare, is now being diverted to cover basic consumption needs, which impacts their overall lifestyle.
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“If people can’t afford quality food, they will also struggle to afford medication. This leads to an inevitable increase in mortality rates, especially among the most vulnerable populations who are already living on the margins.
“The rise in food costs isn’t just a health issue, it’s an economic one as well. If people are not eating properly, their engagement in productive activities decreases, and this will ultimately affect the nation’s economic growth and productivity levels.
“It’s not just individual households that will feel the pressure; the overall growth potential of our nation is at risk. Healthy consumption is critical to ensuring that people can work effectively and contribute to the economy.”
Alaje added that the rising food costs if not addressed, would continue to drive headline inflation even higher.
He urged the government to boost food supply by increasing agricultural production at the local level to help stabilise prices and alleviate economic hardship.
“Unfortunately, food inflation is projected to go even beyond 40 percent. With the current cost of healthy food skyrocketing, people are left with less disposable income, which will likely fuel higher levels of food insecurity.
“We need to focus on boosting the supply of food to address this issue. Increasing local production through agricultural initiatives can help stabilise prices and ensure that there is enough food to meet the demand.
“Each local government should dedicate at least 100 hectares of land to agricultural production. This will help us produce more food, which is essential to bringing down the cost of a healthy diet and improving food security across the country.
“Our focus should be on increasing the output of both food and cash crops. By doing this, the government can help alleviate the economic hardships caused by rising food costs and reduce poverty levels across the nation.”
Rotimi Fakeyejo, a financial and economic expert, cautioned that the steep rise in the cost of a healthy diet could severely impact both consumers and producers, leading to broader economic instability and exacerbating poverty.
“A 47.44 percent increase in seven months in the cost of a healthy diet means that households can now only afford about half of what they could previously buy with the same disposable income.
He said the situation could result in lower income for producers and lower tax revenues for the government which further affects the economy
“This surge will inevitably affect both consumers and producers, as companies may see reduced sales volumes despite maintaining turnover, leading to lower profitability.
“With less profit, the tax revenue from these companies will likely decline, reducing the government’s ability to fund capital projects and possibly forcing it to increase borrowing.
“The overall effect of this rising cost is a potential increase in poverty levels and economic inequality, which will further strain Nigeria’s economic stability.”
Fakeyejo, also reiterated that the rise in cost of healthy diet could further influence the inflation rate
He said, “The rising cost of healthy diets is directly related to food inflation, which has contributed to the overall increase in prices. This high cost is likely to influence inflation trends, particularly in the food sector.
“It is food inflation that’s brought about that high cost in healthy diet, So they are directly related.
Read also: Food inflation seen reversing on fuel price hike
Health Implications
Medical experts caution that the rising cost of a healthy diet may force families to opt for cheaper, less nutritious foods, which could result in lack of essential nutrients (malnutrition) leading to less productivity in adults, and contribute to stunted growth in infants.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), stunting is a global indicator of nutrition. That refers to a low height in relation to age and is the result of one or more past prolonged episodes of malnutrition.
“Stunted growth and development are the result of poor maternal health and nutrition, inadequate infant and young child feeding practices, and recurrent infections interacting with a variety of other factors over a sustained period.
“This form of malnutrition affects the physical and cognitive development of children, increasing their vulnerability to infectious diseases and their risk of mortality. In addition, stunted children have an increased risk of becoming overweight or obese and developing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) later in life.
“This can affect labour productivity, income-earning potential and social skills later in life (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, 2020; WHO, 2014a).”
The World Health Organisation (WHO) said at current trends, the number of stunted children aged under five years is projected to be 128 million in 2025, against a target of 100 million.
Experts see the trend further increasing this projection if families are forced to survive on alternatives.
Rosemary Mark, a medical doctor, said if these essential foods and nutrients gotten from them are substituted due to high cost, it can lead to children having poor immune system, leading to frequent illness, stunted growth and developmental delays.
Mark added that it could also lead to acute kidney injury, with similar effects on pregnant women and their fetuses, including intrauterine growth restriction and failure to thrive, particularly affecting those with sickle cell disease.
“From my experience working in rural settings where I get to see Fulani children, Sickle Cell disease patients and other children whose parents can’t afford basic sources of essential nutrients…
“I’ve seen kids with low immune systems due to poor dietary intake who are always sick and always having to take injections and drugs, hence leading to acute kidney injury. Some had to be transfused with blood
“Some experience stunted growth making a 10 year old look 5. Some experience delayed developmental milestones. Some experiences Protein-energy malnutrition (PEM).
“And this also affect women who are pregnant as well… Fetuses experiences Intrauterine growth restriction and when delivered experience Failure to thrive and more.
“Sickle cell children are not exempted too. I’ve counseled several parents on low budget of at least meals containing basic nutrients for the good mental and physical development of their children”
Dietitians also say rising cost of healthy diet could force families to replace these very important foods with unhealthy alternatives, leading to a surge in diseases such as colorectal cancer, diabetes, and hormonal imbalances, particularly among young people.
Jane C. Eleodi RDN; dietitian/nutritionist, emphasised that the rising cost has profound implications for public health.
She highlighted that the surge not only worsens food insecurity but also impacts nutrition-related illnesses and healthcare costs.
“The sharp increase in the cost of healthy diets will likely force low-income families to cut back on essential nutrients, which could lead to a rise in nutrition-related illnesses and increased healthcare costs as individuals turn to less nutritious and potentially harmful alternatives”.
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