Rewane warns Nigeria’s economic growth leaves citizens behind

Nigeria’s economy is growing, but without prosperity for the average citizen, resulting in a deteriorating living standard for most people in Africa’s most populous nation.

“Nigeria is experiencing growth without prosperity and rising fiscal strain,” Bismarck Rewane, chief executive officer of the Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), said at the LBS Breakfast Session. “This means that the economy may still be growing in aggregate, but the average citizen is getting poorer.”

Africa’s biggest oil producer recorded its fastest annual real gross domestic product in three years as the economy expanded to 3.87 percent, compared to 3.38 percent in 2024. For the fourth quarter of last year, the economy grew 4.07 percent, up from 3.76 percent in 2024.

Key macroeconomic indicators have also been hitting record highs following President Bola Tinubu’s overhaul of the economy by eliminating costly fuel subsidies, relaxing currency controls, and, more recently, revamping the tax laws to widen the nation’s revenue base.

Read also: IMF projects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, decline by 3.0% in 2026

Inflation has slowed to about 15 percent from the highs of 30 percent in 2024. The naira has remained largely stable, even as currencies around the world continue to witness varying volatility.

Nigeria’s external reserves climbed over $50 billion in February, marking the highest in 13 years. And the stock market has witnessed its most booming period yet, with the equities market capitalisation closing at N157 trillion on Friday, 8th May, 2026.

But the seeming growth has not yet translated into lowering poverty for a nation of over 230 million people. Data from the World Bank showed that 63 percent of the population is below the poverty line.

According to data from FDC, Nigerian debt per head is increasing faster than income per capita. GDP per capita hovers around $405 in 2025, while debt per person surges to $495, revealing a poorer living standard.

This situation, according to Rewane, may result in what he described as “liquidity exit” as retail investors, who contributed significantly to the NGX rallies from 2024 to date, are now facing purchasing power erosion.

Even at that, Rewane sees a likelihood of a rise in GDP growth buoyed by the petroleum sector, including upstream investment in Bonga, Agbami and deepwater assets.

“The oil refining sector is outperforming GDP and set to grow rapidly,” he said.