Religious leaders, vote-buying influence voters’ choices, poll shows

Vote-buying and guidance from religious leaders are among the key factors that will influence Nigerian voters’ choices during the forthcoming elections, a new poll has shown.

The survey carried out by POLAF on voters participating in the upcoming presidential election has shown that many Nigerians have different preferences on which to base their decisions in terms of selecting their preferred candidates.

It shows each candidate’s position via parameters and voter concerns. Four of 10 respondents are certain that their positions on candidates are made, three of 10 believe vote buying would influence their choice for voting, while the remainder awaits guidance/direction from religious leaders, market associations, trade unions, etc on the choice of candidate.

“Most concerning amongst respondents are the high rate of unemployment, insecurity, and poverty nationwide, ranking as a concern to the economy,” the organisation said in the poll report.

The survey was conducted via telephone conversations with 3.1 million respondents spread across 165 local government areas in 20 of the 36 states, cut across the six geopolitical zones within a period of eight months (July 2022 – February 2023).

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The most preferred candidates and parties involved in the presidential election, according to the survey, are Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), and Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party.

The poll revealed a close race among the PDP (38 percent), APC (29 percent), and LP (27 percent), while the NNPP is a distant 5 percent. The survey showed the PDP and APC comfortably getting the constitutionally required spread (minimum 25 percent across 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory), while both LP and NNPP struggle.

However, recent conversations indicate the ruling APC is losing popularity as a result of worsening economic hardships, exacerbated by petrol and naira shortages in the country.

“From January 2023, the APC has had a gradual decline, while the PDP and LP have picked up the undecided voters. It is important to note that these figures would still change due to the worsening economic hardship suffered as a result of government policies on the NGN and Petroleum product pricing/unavailability in a nation considered to have one of the largest reserves on the continent,” the report said.

Many respondents are more interested in what the aspiring candidate will do for the country, as 95 percent have rated the current government performance as the worst ever.

According to the respondents, 30 percent said nothing can possibly change their choice of preferred candidate as their minds are already made up.

Further analysis shows that 20 percent of the respondent choice are determined by the campaign/manifesto presented by the candidate

Ten percent are willing to sell their votes during the election, while five percent of the respondents’ decisions are based on the influence of their family, friends, leaders, and religion.