PMI: Economic activities records first marginal decline after 16 years of expansion

Nigeria’s economic activity recorded a marginal decline in April 2026, ending 16 consecutive months of expansion, as the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 49.4 points, according to data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The PMI, a key indicator of business conditions, fell slightly below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, signalling a mild slowdown in aggregate economic activity during the review period.

The April PMI survey, conducted between April 6 and 10, 2026, covered 1,900 purchasing and supply executives across the industry, services, and agriculture sectors to assess the direction of economic activity in Nigeria.

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Data from the report showed that 19 out of the 36 subsectors surveyed recorded contractions, while one remained unchanged, reflecting broad-based weakness across key segments of the economy.

Sectoral analysis indicated that both the industry and services sectors contracted during the month, while agriculture remained the only sector to sustain expansion. The composite PMI, alongside the industry and services indices, slipped below the 50-point benchmark, pointing to a general moderation in economic conditions.

The CBN attributed the slowdown partly to heightened geopolitical uncertainties and tensions in the Middle East, which may have weighed on business sentiment and activity.

The industry sector PMI stood at 49.5 points in April, reflecting a mild contraction, with eight of the 17 subsectors reporting declines in activity. Within the sector, new orders and employment indices fell to 49.5 and 48.7 points respectively, while output posted a marginal expansion at 50.2 points. However, raw materials inventory declined to 46.8 points, indicating reduced input accumulation.

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The services sector recorded a sharper slowdown, with its PMI falling to 48.8 points, marking its first contraction after 14 consecutive months of growth. Business activity, new orders, employment, and inventories all declined, with index readings of 49.2, 47.5, 49.0, and 49.5 points respectively. Ten of the 14 subsectors contracted, led by transportation and warehousing, while educational services recorded the strongest expansion.

In contrast, the agriculture sector continued its growth trajectory, with its PMI at 50.2 points, marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion. Of the five subsectors surveyed, three expanded, one remained unchanged, and one contracted, with forestry recording the strongest growth. General farming activities and employment also remained in expansionary territory at 50.5 and 52.1 points respectively.

Across the broader economy, key PMI components signalled weakening momentum. The output index fell to 49.7 points, new orders to 48.4 points, and employment to 49.6 points, while the stock of raw materials index declined to 48.7 points.

On a positive note, supplier delivery times improved, with the index rising to 50.9 points, indicating faster response times from suppliers.

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Price pressures remained evident, as both input and output price indices increased by 3.2 points in April, suggesting aligned rises in production costs and selling prices. However, output price increases outpaced input costs in the industry and agriculture sectors on a month-on-month basis.

Overall, 16 subsectors recorded expansion during the month, with forestry leading growth, while 19 subsectors contracted, with primary metals posting the steepest decline.

The PMI is a diffusion index derived from responses on changes in key business variables such as new orders, production, and employment. Readings above 50 points indicate expansion, below 50 points signal contraction, while 50 points reflects no change in economic activity.