Peter Obi leads in new poll as undecided voters remain high

If the election is conducted today, Peter Obi of the Labour Party would secure 23 percent of votes, coming first ahead of Bola Tinubu of the APC with 13 percent, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, 10 percent and Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP with 2 percent. This is according to the latest ANAP/NOI poll ahead of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election.

Undecided voters were 29 percent while 23 percent refused to give a response.

The poll is the second one being conducted ahead of the 2023 polls, following an earlier one in September, which according to Atedo Peterside, founder, ANAP foundation, was a baseline poll and because the election cycle is longer this time than previous years. There is to be a third poll in January to see if things are changing.

“In politics they talk about who is gaining momentum or losing ground, so the poll gives a chance to measure how a person performed in December vis a vis September and also in comparison to opponents,” Peterside said, of the polls’ significance during a live analysis of the findings on Wednesday evening.

In a chart projected during the broadcast, he explained none of the candidates has gained or lost more than 2-3 percent of likely voters when compared to the September poll, saying “it is as if nothing has happened to fundamentally cause any change”.

While Peter Obi saw a slight increase of 2 percent between the September and December poll results, Bola Tinubu remained unchanged, while Atiku Abubakar lost three percent, likewise a slight decline by Rabiu Kwankwaso. Also, while undecided voters declined slightly, the category of those who refused to disclose their preference increased by a wider margin.

According to Peterside, there is so much at stake, motivating more people to be interested in the coming election; from the state of the economy to sentiments around a variety of candidates from different ethnic and religious backgrounds when compared to 2019 for instance.

Read also: New ANAP Foundation poll gives Peter Obi solid lead

“71 percent said they want candidates engaging and defending their policies to convince them to vote,” said Peterside, highlighting sentiments from voters on the need for presidential debates.

The polls have been conducted in the last three presidential election cycles in Nigeria, and when compared to the previous ones, he says this election cycle is seeing more interest from voters.

In 201l, the polls showed 53 percent of respondents had said former president GEJ would win the election, which eventually happened.

In 2015 the poll also said incumbent President Buhari had 32 percent lead ahead of former President Jonathan with 30 percent, with president Buhari eventually winning.

In 2019, the poll again predicted President Buhari having a 75 percent advantage over former vice president Atiku Abubakar, and again, its results were validated with a win by President Buhari in the election.