Ahead of the forthcoming 11 March, 2023 governorship elections, the result of a state-wide opinion poll showed Sanwo-Olu will win his re-election bid.
The survey, conducted by NOI Polls Limited and commissioned by Anap Foundation, was concluded in February before the presidential elections.
According to the result, incumbent governor, Sanwo-Olu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) leads with 31 percent of voters proposing to vote for him if the governorship election was to be conducted today; 8 percent identified with Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, Labour Party (LP) who fell in second place and Azeez Olajide Adediran ‘Jandor’ (PDP) was third with seven percent of electorates proposing to vote for him.
“Governor Sanwo-Olu’s 23 percent-point lead at this stage is significant, as the opposition voters are fragmented and shared between 2 main challengers in the ratio 31:8:7,” according to a report on the poll. “Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 19 percent and 30 percent respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 24 percent of women are undecided versus 14 percent of male voters.”
Furthermore, a report on the survey signed by Atedo Peterside, president, ANAP Foundation noted the percentage of registered voters is as follows in each of the districts – 95 percent in Lagos West and 93 percent each in Lagos East and Lagos Central.
“The Poll shows that almost eight in 10 registered voters are absolutely certain that they would be voting in the next governorship election, according to Peterside. “If they stay committed then we could witness a huge turnout in the 11 March, 2023 governorship elections.”
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“Whilst this governorship poll result shows some significant trends, it is key to note that it was concluded before the presidential elections and that the race is still impossible to call, as undecided/swing voters would ultimately have their say on which candidate emerges as governor of Lagos State,” Peterside continued. “In summary, our February 2023 Polls indicate that the race is not completely over, as the undecided voters (19%) and those who refused to reveal their preferred candidate (30%) are large enough to turn the tables.”
“ANAP Foundation notes that the trends in momentum may be further influenced by the recently concluded presidential elections where LP made a strong showing in Lagos. A lot will depend on if there has since been a further surge in Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour’s momentum.
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