…Military budgets have grown 190 times since 1960
…Data, tech needed to fight crime, experts tell security chiefs
Nigeria’s security budgets have increased substantially in the last 64 years, but citizens still can’t sleep with their two eyes closed.
Military budgets alone jumped by over 1,900 percent between 1960 and 2021, but terrorism and threats to Nigeria’s sovereignty escalated over the period.
Nigeria’s military expenditure stood at $23.4 million in 1960 but rose to $4.47 billion in 2021, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a conflict-focused research organisation.
In naira terms, security budgets have risen from N618.26 billion in 2010 to N3.24 trillion in 2024, indicating a 424 percent increase over the 14-year period, according to BusinessDay’s computations from data provided by the Budget Office of the Federation.
The budgets of the Ministry of Police Affairs, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Defence, Police Service Commission, and National Security Adviser were collectively put together for the purpose of this computation.
Read also: Worsening insecurity: FG, military struggle as criminal enterprises soar
Widespread insecurity
Widespread insecurity across Nigeria is worrisome. Dramatic rise in violent crimes, characterised by terrorism, banditry, herdsmen attacks and rampant kidnappings, continue to raise critical questions about the effectiveness of the country’s defence strategies, despite substantial incremental budgetary allocations and military acquisitions over the years.
There are even more concerns about how criminals brazenly use sophisticated means such as mobile phones and bank accounts to facilitate their operations without fear of being apprehended.
Between 2019 and 2023, Nigeria reportedly lost nearly 25,000 citizens to violence, with kidnappings becoming increasingly prevalent across regions previously considered safe, such as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Lagos.
Data from Beacon Security and Intelligence Limited (BSIL) indicate that about 5,801 Nigerians were killed by terrorists, with 4,348 abductions nationwide within the first seven months of 2024.
In August 2024 alone, BSIL noted a sharp rise in security incidents, with total of 952 recorded cases, resulting in 907 fatalities.
“We are in a fragile state and every Nigerian needs to be worried. The fragility of the Nigerian state is increasing. There are indices for measuring that fragility, and if we continue at this rate, we will become a failed state. That worries me,” Kabir Adamu, CEO BSIL, told BusinessDay in an exclusive interview.
Series of attacks
In the South East, secessionist agitations and unknown gunmen are holding sway. The South-South region is experiencing frequent incidents of oil theft and rising kidnap cases. In the South -West, like most parts of the country, kidnapping has become the order of the day. In the three regions of the North, banditry, insurgency and kidnapping are the order of the day.
In the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), for instance, bandits attacked travellers on the notorious Abuja-Kaduna highway in August 2024, abducting over 30 people in a renewed wave of violence that has alarmed residents and authorities after months of respite on the road.
The abduction of an entire family in the Bwari area of the FCT early this year, the payment of N100 million as ransom and the killing of a family member are among many incidents reported in Nigeria’s capital.
Pupils, teachers and a school bus driver were abducted in Ekiti State, a monarch killed, and his wife abducted in Kwara State, within one week, according to PLAC.
There were also reports of attacks in Mangu, Plateau State, in January 2024, during which 25 persons were killed, barely one month after about 195 persons were reportedly killed and over 10,000 others displaced following attacks in several communities across Bokkos, Barkin Ladi and Mangu local government areas of the state on Christmas Eve.
There were also attacks on communities in Benue State in January 2024, in which 30 persons were killed.
On the same day, gunmen attacked Yandaka village in Katsina State, killed three persons and abducted 32 others.
On August 15, 2024, 20 medical students who were travelling to Enugu for a conference were kidnapped by bandits – though they were released days later.
Recently, resident doctors embarked on strike just to push for the rescue of their colleague, Ganiyat Popoola, who was kidnapped since December 27, 2023 and remains in the custody of her captors.
Innocent Abah, president, Association of Resident Doctors at the University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, had said aside Popoola, 31 of their members were still being held by kidnappers.
Just last Saturday night, bandits invaded Kidandan village in Kaduna State and abducted Tasiu Habibu, chairman of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), alongside three children of a local health worker.
Habibu had been previously abducted by the similar bandits and held for 60 days and released after ransom was paid.
Ransom collected via banks, PoS
The previous day, Fulani herdsmen had invaded Mkpehi, a village in Owerri, and abducted some farmers. Those released so far said the ransom was collected through transfers into PoS and bank accounts.
A kidnapped victim’s family said he paid a ransom through a bank account.
Read also: Fields of fear: How insecurity robs Nigerians of daily bread
Impact of insecurity on farmers, communities
The Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) in collaboration with the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) reported 1,252 new arrivals at the Internally Displaced Camps in Adamawa and Borno states between August 19 and 25, reflecting the humanitarian impact of these security challenges in the North-East.
More than 350 farmers were kidnapped or killed in the 12 months up to June 2022 alone, according to a Nigerian security tracking website, BBC reported.
Between 2017 and May 2020, herdsmen conducted 654 attacks, killed 2,539 and kidnapped 253 people, mainly farmers in Nigeria, a report said.
A 2022 Global Food Crisis Report said banditry and kidnapping in the northern states of Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara, Kaduna, Benue, Plateau and Niger had continued to hinder food production.
Farmers pay ransoms to terrorists and several of them have been sacked by insurgents.
Abiodun Olorudero, managing partner at Prasino Farms, said insecurity is cutting down Nigeria’s farm output.
Lack of accountability
Kabiru Adamu, CEO BSIL, earlier quoted, is concerned with lack of accountability in Nigeria’s security sector, with little to no oversight on how funds are being utilised and no clear performance measures in place to assess whether or not security agencies are delivering results.
“When security organisations perform well, there’s no measurement to recognise that, and when they don’t, there’s no system in place to penalise them,” Adamu stated.
He pointed to the purchase of military equipment, such as the Super Tucano jets, which were touted as capable of helping to combat banditry, but has not delivered the expected results.
“Banditry continues, and we are not aware of any instances where the minister has been questioned about why these jets haven’t been effectively used to end the crisis.”
Emmanuel Onwubiko, national coordinator, Human Rights Writers Association of Nigeria (HURIWA), supports the argument that the growing insecurity in Nigeria is not necessarily due to lack of funding but rather deeper institutional challenges.
He cited 2019 when N75 billion was allocated for ‘Operation Lafiya Dole’ (now Operation Hadin Kai) to combat insurgency in the North-East, alongside N159.10 billion for capital projects.
“The problems facing the security architecture in Nigeria are not financial but institutional,” Onwubiko insisted.
Naira erodes security budgets
Since 2024 naira float, security budgets have slumped in dollar terms. The value of N3.24 trillion total security budget in 2024 is estimated at $2.2 billion, with a dollar exchanging at over N1,500 at the official market. In 2010, N618.26 billion total security budget amounted to $5.056 billion.
Military equipment is majorly procured outside Nigeria in dollars. With the naira slump, less equipment is procured even with more naira budget.
What can Nigeria do?
Roland Igbakpa, a former House of Representatives member, is of the view that the increasing pool of unemployed and desperate young men is making their recruitment into illegal activities by criminal groups easy.
Igbakpa also pointed to Nigeria’s porous borders, through which people, including criminals smuggle into the country unchecked, stressing the need to shut them down.
Adamu, earlier quoted, called for linkage of security budgets to performance indicators, noting that without proper evaluation and consequences for non-performance, the cycle of inefficiency and irresponsibility will continue unchecked.
Meanwhile, BudgIT Nigeria suggested that improving border security, curbing small arms proliferation, upgrading surveillance, establishing state/community police, while gathering intel. It said tackling ungoverned spaces from illegal mining, and better welfare for security officers will help to strengthen Nigeria’s security.
Ibim Koroye, an IT expert, said it was high time Nigeria began to use NINs and technology to track criminals, wondering why criminals use phones to contact families of victims without being tracked.
“The recruitment process into security agencies should be reviewed. There must be new criteria, which must include background analysis,” he said.
“We need to deploy technolgy and the data we have to fight crime. This is what happens elsewhere.”
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