No fewer than 792 people were killed in 882 security incidents recorded across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in June 2026, according to a new security assessment by SARI Global, a risk intelligence and security analysis firm.

The report also disclosed that Nigerian security forces killed 274 insurgents during military operations in the month but warned that despite the high operational tempo, the country’s security environment remains volatile.

Contained in SARI Global’s Nigeria Monthly Security Overview for June 2026, the report identified the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) as intensifying attacks in northern Borno, particularly around the Monguno axis, where the group allegedly disrupted humanitarian operations and cut off aid supplies to hundreds of thousands of internally displaced persons.

The monthly report, published on ReliefWeb, the humanitarian information platform managed by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, described the Monguno axis, covering Monguno, Cross Kauwa, Baga, and Kukawa, as Nigeria’s most critical humanitarian flashpoint.

According to SARI Global, ISWAP combined nighttime raids on humanitarian compounds with daytime attacks on aid supply routes, effectively restricting access to vulnerable communities.

The report noted that June began with an already elevated level of insecurity and worsened significantly during the first half of the month.

It recorded 217 security incidents in the first week, while the second week, from June 8 to 14, witnessed 278 incidents—the highest weekly figure as well as the largest number of fatalities.

SARI Global identified June 8, 11, 13, and 14 as the most violent days, when insurgent attacks, banditry, and military operations occurred simultaneously across multiple conflict theatres.

“June opened at an elevated baseline and escalated through its first half before settling into a violent plateau.

“The security apparatus contained but never reversed the early escalation, while lethality remained high into the fourth week due to sustained rural violence in the North-West,” the report stated.

One of the month’s most significant incidents occurred on June 24, when ISWAP fighters reportedly infiltrated the 20 Units Housing area in Monguno and abducted an international humanitarian worker alongside a local security guard.

SARI Global said the operation demonstrated detailed intelligence on humanitarian personnel and the security arrangements protecting their accommodation.

The report further revealed that ISWAP expanded its campaign against humanitarian logistics by targeting commercial vehicles transporting relief supplies.

Following an earlier attack on June 18, insurgents reportedly established illegal checkpoints and set ablaze two NGO-contracted trucks along the Monguno-Gajiram road on June 29.

According to the report, the deliberate destruction of food supplies was aimed at discouraging commercial transporters from working with humanitarian agencies and limiting the movement of essential commodities into isolated communities.

It warned that the attacks had already prompted some transport operators to abandon the route, increasing the likelihood of delayed food distributions during the lean season.

“The deliberate destruction of food cargo is a calculated tactic to intimidate commercial vendors, deter them from engaging with humanitarian actors and restrict the flow of essential commodities,” the report noted.

An analysis of the incidents showed that government-affiliated security agencies initiated the highest number of operations, accounting for 375 of the 882 recorded incidents through arrests, raids, seizures and other law enforcement activities.

However, despite conducting the largest number of operations, government forces accounted for 274 of the 792 confirmed deaths.

In contrast, non-state armed groups were linked to only 224 incidents but caused 337 fatalities, representing 42.5 per cent of all confirmed deaths during the month, making them the deadliest actors.

The remaining fatalities comprised 86 deaths linked to unknown actors, 64 civilian deaths, 30 criminal actor deaths and one politically related fatality.

SARI Global cautioned that the figures demonstrate that increased security operations do not necessarily translate into improved security.

“A busy security apparatus is not the same as an improving environment,” the report warned.

Borno remained the country’s most violent state with 109 incidents and 172 deaths, driven largely by insurgency around the Lake Chad Basin, Sambisa Forest, Gwoza and northern garrison towns.

Zamfara followed with 63 incidents, reflecting persistent banditry in the North-West, while Plateau recorded 51 incidents.

Katsina recorded 44 incidents, Lagos 40, the Federal Capital Territory 36, Rivers 32, Oyo and Sokoto 31 each, while Niger State recorded 29 incidents.

By category, criminality and law enforcement accounted for the largest number of incidents with 369, followed by armed conflict (297), civil unrest (110) and hazards (64).

The report nevertheless stressed that armed conflict remained significantly more lethal than other forms of insecurity.

SARI Global also raised concerns over what it described as an increasing threat to schools.

It cited the June 29 attack on Government Day Secondary School in Lassa, Askira/Uba Local Government Area of Borno State, where ISWAP fighters allegedly abducted students and teachers in broad daylight.

The organisation described the assault as both ideologically motivated and strategically designed to attract international attention while exposing weaknesses in government security.

It warned that schools located in communities close to Sambisa Forest should now be considered high-risk facilities requiring enhanced protection.

“The failure to detect the group’s movement before the assault, and the absence of a rapid security response, reflect severe constraints in local surveillance, early-warning and community-alert mechanisms,” the report said.

SARI Global also identified another emerging security challenge involving humanitarian operations.

It referenced an incident on June 5 in Banki, Bama Local Government Area, where a humanitarian worker was attacked during food distribution by an individual who had been excluded from the beneficiary list.

The organisation described the incident as part of a growing trend of “beneficiary aggression”, warning that food shortages during the lean season could trigger more crowd-related violence.

Across the North-West, the report documented 67 insurgent-style ambushes and improvised explosive device attacks, including an IED explosion along the Bagega-Anka road in Zamfara State on June 15.

It warned that the increasing use of IEDs in Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto and Kebbi indicates that tactics previously associated with the North-East insurgency are spreading into other regions.

In southern Nigeria, Lagos, Rivers and Oyo recorded relatively lower-fatality incidents dominated by crime, protests and road traffic accidents.

The report added that the 36 incidents recorded in the Federal Capital Territory were largely linked to civil unrest associated with the build-up to the 2027 general elections.

It identified Abuja as an emerging hotspot for politically motivated protests, characterised by heavy deployment of security personnel and a low threshold for the use of force.

Looking ahead to July, SARI Global projected that humanitarian conditions would deteriorate further as food insecurity deepens while ISWAP continues targeting aid supply routes.

The organisation warned that the widening gap between humanitarian needs and response capacity could increase security risks for both aid workers and vulnerable communities.

SARI Global is a United States-registered security intelligence firm that provides conflict monitoring, threat analysis and operational risk advisory services to international NGOs, United Nations agencies, embassies and corporations operating in high-risk environments across Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

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