NBS to release rebased inflation figures as MPC convenes

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is set to release its highly anticipated rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports today, Monday, February 17th.

This rebasing, which updates the base year for both indices, incorporates new sectors of the economy such as the digital economy and modular refineries and is expected to provide a more accurate reflection of current economic realities. The release comes as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) begins its crucial 299th meeting, where it will grapple with persistent inflationary pressures and consider potential adjustments to interest rates. The new CPI data, with its expanded basket of goods and services, will be a key factor in the MPC’s deliberations.

“The postponement to February buys the MPC time for the new inflation methodology to kick off.”

Monday February 17, 2025

NBS to release inflation report

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the new rebased consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product (GDP) report today.

According to the NBS, rebasing is a process of updating an old base year with a recent one to reflect changes in the prices of goods and services produced within the economy. The agency explained that constant price estimates are recalculated using the new base year’s prices.

It stated that the rebasing will cover new areas of the economy, including the digital economy, modular refineries, pension fund administration, the national health insurance scheme, mining, among others.

NBS revealed that the base year adopted for the GDP was 2019, while 2024 was used for the CPI.

For the CPI, the year was proposed to capture the structural changes driven by the removal of subsidies on FX and PMS.

The year 2019 was chosen as a preferred base year for the GDP because economic activities were relatively stable within the period, compared to subsequent years disrupted by the impact of COVID and policy shifts. The constituents of the inflation basket are expected to expand from 740 to 960.

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

MPC to hold 299th meeting

The 299th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to be held today, Tuesday, February 18, and Wednesday, February 19, 2025, after being postponed twice.

The MPC, which is held bi-monthly, was initially postponed to February 17 and 18, three months after the last meeting in November, and again to its current date as authorities buy time for the rebased inflation figures.

The postponement to February buys the MPC time for the new inflation methodology to kick off.

Consumer prices rose at a faster annual pace in December to 34.80 percent, the last inflation figure calculated using the old methodology.

The Olayemi Cardoso-led monetary committee has hiked rates by 850 basis points to 27.25 percent from 18.75 percent to fight galloping inflation.

Alfred Rewane, in his latest economic report, projects that the inflation rate will decline marginally; however, he mentioned that interest rates may stay at 27.5 percent in February.

“ With policy easing by mid-2025 as inflation moderates, the primary focus of CBN is price stability, but interest rates will remain above 20 percent this year.

However, JP Morgan, an international bank, projects that the MPC will increase rates by 25 basis points to 27.75 percent.

It projects a further hike to 28 percent in the first quarter and expects that it will hold the rate for the entire year; it stated this in its Emerging Market Frontier Local report.

While Bloomberg Economics thinks Nigeria will raise rates by a quarter point.

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Wednesday, February 19, 2025

China to hold rates decision

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is scheduled to hold its second rate meeting this year on Wednesday.

In January, China left its benchmark loan prime rate unchanged in anticipation of more clarity on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for trade tariffs.

The PBOC left its one-year loan prime rate at 3.1 percent, while the five-year rate, which is used to set mortgage rates, was left at 3.60 percent. A hold was widely expected by markets, with both rates remaining at record lows after being lowered through 2024.

The LPR is determined by the PBOC based on considerations from 18 designated commercial banks and is used as a benchmark for lending rates in the country.

During a high-level economic agenda-setting meeting in December, China’s top leaders vowed to cut interest rates “in a timely manner” and reduce the amount of capital banks must hold in reserve as part of a broader effort to spur lending and investment in the ailing economy.

Wednesday, February 19

CBN to auction N700 billion NT- Bills

The Central Bank of Nigeria will be auctioning treasury bills worth N700 billion on Wednesday.

It will be auctioning N80 billion for a 91-day tenor, N120 billion for the 182-day tenor, and N500 billion for the 364-day tenor.

At the last auction, CBN auctioned N670 billion across the 91-, 182-, and 364-day tenors and sold only N619.36 billion worth of the N3.15 trillion subscription it got.

This is 26 percent higher than the N2.49 trillion subscription seen at the last auction.

In 2025, N31.26 trillion in liquidity is expected from OMO, NTB, and bond maturities and coupons. On the debt front, the government will likely borrow about N9.16 trillion from the domestic market.

The 182-day and 91-day treasury bills saw minimal interest by investors. Only N31.94 billion of the N50 billion 91-day bill was sold. Likewise, the 182-day bill only sold 18.69 billion.

Yields on the 182-day and 91-day bills remained the same for the tenth consecutive auction at 20.39 percent and 18.86 percent, respectively.

Thursday, February 20,

South Africa to hold G-20 Summit

South Africa is set to host the G20 summit in Johannesburg on 20–21 February.

The G20 summit is the premier forum for international economic cooperation.

South Africa assumed the G20 Presidency on 1 December 2024 and will lead the bloc until 30 November 2025. It is the only African country that is a permanent member of the G20, and this is the first time in the G20’s history that an African country will preside over this august bloc of developing and developed countries.

South Africa’s G20 Presidency is also the last in the first full cycle of G20 presidencies, before the Presidency reverts to the United States in 2026. South Africa’s Presidency aims to build on the successes of the past three presidencies led by the Global South (Indonesia-2022, India-2023, and Brazil-2024) and is an opportunity for South Africa to champion the aspirations of emerging economies.