Modi-Trump meeting strengthens US-India ties amid strategic calculations

Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, was officially hosted by President Donald Trump in the United States on Thursday, underscoring the deepening strategic, economic, and political engagement between the two nations.

Against the backdrop of an evolving global order and rising geopolitical tensions, the visit served multiple objectives, ranging from defense and trade agreements to political maneuvering and the protection of Indian diaspora interests.

A strategic counterbalance to China

India’s role as a key partner in countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific remains a pivotal aspect of US-India relationships.

Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to a “Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership,” emphasising defense and military cooperation. A new initiative, the U.S.-India COMPACT (Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology) for the 21st Century, was launched to bolster defense collaboration, technology sharing, and interoperability between the two militaries.

The meeting also advanced discussions on a ten-year framework for the US-India Major Defense Partnership, further integrating US-origin defense systems into India’s arsenal.

Notably, the leaders announced new procurements, including Javelin anti-tank guided missiles and Stryker infantry combat vehicles, reinforcing India’s military capabilities as a deterrent to Chinese assertiveness in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea.

“The leaders also called for opening negotiations this year for a Reciprocal Defense Procurement (RDP) agreement to better align their procurement systems and enable the reciprocal supply of defense goods and services,” a joint statement released after the meeting read.

Economic and trade imperatives

Beyond defense, economic factors played a major role in Modi’s visit. The US and India set an ambitious goal to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 under “Mission 500.” Both sides committed to negotiating a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by Fall 2025, aimed at expanding market access, reducing tariffs, and fostering supply chain resilience.

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India’s growing market for US defense equipment also plays into American economic interests. With limited industrial offerings outside the military sector, US defense sales to India provide a lucrative avenue to sustain America’s military-industrial complex while strengthening ties with a key regional ally.

“The United States welcomed India’s recent measures to lower tariffs on U.S. products of interest, including bourbon, motorcycles, ICT products, and metals,” while India welcomed improved access for its agricultural exports, such as mangoes and pomegranates.

Managing political realities and Trump’s influence

With Trump back in the White House and reshaping America’s global posture, Modi’s visit also carried an element of political calculus. Given Trump’s volatile stance on international relations and his strongman approach to diplomacy, India is navigating how to mollify a leader who, while not a traditional statesman, commands great influence in shaping global power dynamics.

Modi’s trip signals a recognition that securing a stable US-India relationship under Trump’s presidency requires direct engagement and calculated negotiations. The meeting also allowed Modi to cultivate a working rapport with Trump ahead of future diplomatic challenges, ensuring that India remains a key US ally amid shifting global alliances.

Diaspora and immigration concerns

An often-overlooked yet critical factor in Modi’s visit is the Indian diaspora in the United States. In 2024, India received an estimated $130 billion in remittances, with approximately 20% originating from the US alone. Ensuring the well-being of Indian nationals working in the US remains a priority for Modi’s administration.

India has a vested interest in addressing the status of undocumented Indian immigrants in the US, estimated between 220,000 and 700,000. Modi likely sought assurances from the Trump administration on immigration policies that could impact these individuals, aiming to protect their status and prevent mass deportations that could disrupt both economies.

“President Trump and Prime Minister Modi noted that the more than 300,000 strong Indian student community contributes over $8 billion annually to the U.S. economy and helps create a number of direct and indirect jobs,” the statement noted.

Beyond Washington: Modi’s meeting with Elon Musk

While the visit’s official highlight was the meeting with Trump, Modi also held a semi-private discussion with Elon Musk, a move that underscores India’s ambition in the technology and space sectors. With Musk’s ventures in artificial intelligence, space exploration, and electric vehicles, India sees an opportunity to attract investments and position itself as a global tech manufacturing hub. The meeting explored potential collaborations in autonomous systems, AI, and semiconductor development, all key components of India’s strategic growth agenda.

As part of this broader push for technological collaboration, Modi and Trump announced the launch of the US-India TRUST (“Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology”) initiative, which will “catalyze government-to-government, academia and private sector collaboration to promote application of critical and emerging technologies in areas like defense, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum, biotechnology, energy, and space”.

The leaders also reinforced their commitment to the INDUS-X initiative, which facilitates partnerships between US and Indian defense companies, investors, and universities, and will hold its next summit later this year.