Experts have insisted on tackling critical issues such as macroeconomic instability and weak legislation as well as ensuring effective implementation if the objectives of Nigeria’s National Development Plan (NDP 2021-2025) must be realised.
Launched as a successor plan to the Economic Sustainability Plan and the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) to drive the nation’s economic growth, the NDP is a medium-term plan which seeks to establish a strong foundation for a diversified economy with strategic investments in critical physical, financial, digital, and innovation infrastructure across Nigeria.
Speaking with BusinessDay, the experts said past national development plans failed because of the lack of effective implementation.
Uchenna Uwaleke, a professor of finance and capital market at Nasarawa State University, said the NDP 2021-2025, which is transiting the political regime could suffer political risk except backed up by enabling legislation.
“This plan is transiting the political regime, so the issue is that when another party comes into power, will they be willing to continue the programme?
“This is a major issue to consider, but if the programme is backed by legislation and being private sector-driven, it will be difficult for successive governments to ignore. And this will protect the investment of the private sector,” he said.
He, however, commended the government for the development of a private sector-driven plan which, according to him, will encourage more citizens’ participation.
According to him, the ERGP fell short of set targets because it lacked the needed participation of the private sector, as it was solely driven by the government.
“I think the decision of the government to make this plan private sector-driven was based on the outcomes of the ERGP, because the ERGP was centred more on the government, hence not so much was achieved.
The 5-year national plan seeks to invest massively in infrastructure, ensure macroeconomic stability, enhance the investment environment, improve on social indicators and living conditions, among others.
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Specifically, the plan aims to generate 21 million full-time jobs and lift 35 million people out of poverty by 2025; thus setting the stage for achieving the government’s commitment of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years.
The successful implementation of this plan will also be heavily hinged on a strong partnership between the private and public sectors.
Corroborating Uwaleke’s views, the immediate past director-general of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Muda Yusuf, said that there was a need to ensure a conducive macroeconomic environment to support the investments of the private sector.
He further stressed the need for the government to commit resources to the development of relevant sectors including the infrastructures.
According to him, budgetary allocation to infrastructural development which is critical for economic development has been below expectations.
“To get it right with development plans such as this, we must first get our macro-economic environment right because it is an important factor for investment.
Yusuf also noted the ‘over ambitious’ size of the plan, especially with respect to the amount of funding required from the private sector.
According to him, requiring over N290 trillion from the private sector is on the high side, considering that many businesses are still recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“I think the expectations from the private sector are ridiculous in times like this when there is no liquidity, unstable forex regime and the business environment is full of uncertainties,” he said.
It is estimated that the attainment of the objectives of the plan will require an investment commitment of about N348.1 trillion.
Of the total amount, government capital expenditure during the period will be N49.7 trillion (14.3 percent) while the balance of N298.3 trillion (85.7 percent) is expected from the private sector.
Of the 14.3 percent government contribution, the Federal Government’s capital expenditure is estimated at N29.6 trillion (8.5 percent) while the sub-national governments’ capital expenditure is estimated to be about N20.1 trillion (5.8 percent).
“Another issue is for us to fix our infrastructure deficit and scale up the domestic production climate,” he said.
In her opinion, Sarah Omotunde-Alade, special adviser to President Muhammadu Buhari on finance and economy matters, noted that while the NDP was filled with economic and social programmes beneficial to the nation’s economy, ensuring the enabling environment and relevant laws to protect the needed investment was critical to its success.
Omotunde-Alade, who is also a former deputy governor, economic policy at the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), said the plan was the highest priority of the government as it seeks to unblock all constraints to economic growth.
She pointed to the core issues bedeviling Nigeria, including, insecurity, weak institutions, high rate of unemployment, inefficient public service delivery among others, which could also make it impossible to harvest gains from the four-year plan.
“The NDP would develop a mechanism to engage, empower and employ our teaming energetic youths, by ensuring that most Nigerian youth below the age of 35 are either in school or gainfully employed by 2025.
“There is a need to institutionalize the NDP implementation with laws at all levels of government to check frequent policy reversals. Investors need to be assured that policies will not change halfway.
”The government will implement fiscal, monetary, structural and investment policies enunciated in the plan to improve social indicators and living conditions.”
Commenting on the plan, Mike Obadan, a retired professor of economics, University of Benin, harped on the need for the active engagement of the private sector players in efforts to meet expectations, adding that the success of the plan depends largely on the private sector financing through the micro, small and medium enterprises.
According to him, while the NDP was a robust plan with a relatively large size, the projections were achievable barring negative domestic and external shocks.
“Active involvement of the private sector on plan financing and implementation is critical to its success,” he said.
Speaking on the various sectors of interest in the plan, Obadan said that the plan, if successfully implemented, will enhance the agricultural sector as well as the overall national food production system, and increase the volume of agricultural exports.
“Agriculture is a private sector activity, therefore farmers and farming enterprises are expected to take advantage of the government’s intervention to boost productivity and ensure food security in the country.
“On integrated rural development, the plan aims to increase rural transportation infrastructure, minimise disparities in access to public services between rural and urban areas.
“Consequently, the broad objective of the manufacturing sector plan is to improve the manufacturing climate, output and performance through improved infrastructure, stabiliaing the macro-economy and removing regulatory constraints,” he said.
Other sectors that would be enhanced by the plan, according to Obadan, include oil and gas, solid mineral, mining and steel development, culture, creativity, hospitality and tourism, business, trade and competitiveness.
Also, the Nigerian economic summit group, in its 2022 macroeconomic outlook noted that while the NDP is well detailed and broad in identifying critical elements, drivers and enablers of national development, the need for its effective implementation cannot be overemphasised.
It stated that to achieve economic growth and meaningful development, the government must deliberately ensure that the necessary foundation is laid to optimise economic benefits and outcomes.
“For effective implementation of the plan rest on; provision of implementation guideline, provision of investment promotion framework, implementation of civil and public service reforms, ensure macroeconomic stability and policy coordination, investing in human capital development and improved security,” it stated.
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